VZCZCXRO6756
RR RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHUP #0570/01 0801550
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 211550Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8771
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000570 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI ECON PINR HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: FORMER FM SAYS FIDESZ WILL 
WIN AND IS COMMITTED TO THE TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP 
(C-RE6-00145) 
 
REF: STATE 22644 
 
Classified By: DCM Philip Reeker.  Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (C) FIDESZ will win the elections, said Viktor Orban's 
former Foreign Minister Janos Martonyi on March 20, citing 
the FIDESZ victories in two local by-elections over the 
weekend. Martonyi said chilly FIDESZ relations with 
Washington will improve, because his party is "very committed 
to the transatlantic relationship and the alliance."  Health 
care and reducing the size of government top the domestic 
issues list.  Martonyi criticized comments by FIDESZ Deputy 
PM nominee Istvan Mikola for suggesting that voting rights 
for ethnic Hungarians abroad will "keep FIDESZ in power for 
twenty years." Martonyi said no matter the outcome, Orban 
will remain a figure in Hungarian politics, although he will 
resign as party president if he looses.  Negative campaigns 
are an unfortunate reality in Hungary, said Martonyi, but 
given the role played by American campaign advisors, "nobody 
should be surprised." 
 
---------------------- 
Foreign Affairs Issues 
---------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) In a relaxed, friendly lunch meeting March 20, former 
FIDESZ Foreign Minister Janos Martonyi told DCM that if 
FIDESZ wins, it "will be committed to the transatlantic 
relationship" and will support the U.S. led alliance in the 
global war on terror.  Martonyi acknowledged U.S. concerns 
stemming from FIDESZ's 2004 decision not to support extending 
Hungary's mandate in Iraq, but noted that it was a tough 
"domestic decision."  Hinting that proceeding under a NATO 
flag in Iraq would have been more acceptable for Hungarians, 
he said the FIDESZ decision was in line with the principles 
of "most intellectuals, even in the U.S." and that FIDESZ has 
always supported U.S. efforts in Afghanistan.  Martonyi 
called opposition party FIDESZ the "party of principle" and 
the governing MSZP the "party of pragmatism" saying it is 
much easier to be pragmatic for political (or diplomatic) 
gain. 
¶3. (C) Martonyi was exuberant in his praise for the March 15 
1848 and 1956 anniversary commemoration event at the U.S. 
Capitol, noting that it was an historical event for Hungary. 
He welcomed the President's remarks, particularly since he 
understood it was unlikely that the President himself would 
visit Hungary for the official '56 commemoration.  He thanked 
the Embassy and Ambassador Walker for their role in the 
event, and dismissed negative press stories, which had 
suggested that the event was politically-motivated. 
 
¶4.  (C) Martonyi said he was "very unhappy" with former 
Minster of Health Istvan Mikola's comments about ethnic 
Hungarians living abroad, saying his comments were "only a 
joke" and not to be taken as a FIDESZ political tactic. 
(Note: Mikola was recently tapped by Viktor Orban to fill a 
proposed slot as Deputy Prime Minister if FIDESZ wins).  The 
issue of ethnic Hungarians living in border countries is a 
perennial issue, but one largely muted in this election, 
until Mikola quipped "after FIDESZ wins, 5.5 million 
Hungarians will gain the right to vote, ensuring the party 
will dominate politics for the next twenty years."  FIDESZ 
has long championed a regionally controversial initiative to 
extend citizenship and voting rights to Hungarian minorities 
living abroad, much to the chagrin of the EU, Romania, 
Serbia, Ukraine and Slovakia.  (Both Mikola and FIDESZ 
subsequently distanced themselves from Mikola's "quip" about 
ethnic Hungarians abroad.) 
 
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Domestic Issues 
--------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Health Care tops the FIDESZ domestic policy agenda, 
according to Martonyi, who said the high costs of disability 
pensions are crippling the system.  Although he offered no 
specific recommendation for a health care overhaul, Martonyi 
alleged that many working-age Hungarians scam the health care 
system by bribing doctors to declare them eligible to collect 
meager a "disability pension" and then illegally work an 
undeclared "gray market" job to make ends meet. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Reducing Hungary's flabby civil service is another 
top priority should FIDESZ prevail. Whichever the winning 
party, it "must work with the opposition" to cut the size of 
 
BUDAPEST 00000570  002 OF 002 
 
 
Hungary's government, which currently employs 809 thousand 
workers.  Martonyi questioned however, whether either side 
had the will to tackle the politically-charged issue before 
the fall 2006 local elections.  He said that FIDESZ 
appreciates voters' "nostalgia" for the stability of 
communist era institutions that guaranteed basic services, 
housing and subsistence, but that costs had to be cut. 
 
------------------- 
The FIDESZ Campaign 
------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Negative campaigns, are an unfortunate reality in 
Hungarian politics, said Martonyi, who faulted the MSZP for 
running an ugly race.  Gyurcsany's campaign features 
"constant personal attacks" against Orban, said Martonyi who 
asked, "why are you surprised?...we learned this from the 
U.S. experts" who manage both campaigns. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Martonyi said FIDESZ will win the election if it is 
leading the MSZP by three percent or more after the first 
round.  He pointed to mayoral elections in Szentendre and 
Mosonmagyarodvar over the weekend to bolster his prediction 
(Note: in Szentendre, the FIDESZ mayoral candidate won the 
by-election by more than twenty percent.) Even if the SZDSZ 
could surpass the five percent threshold (which Martonyi 
predicted it would not), the three percent margin would be 
enough for FIDESZ to win outright.  He said Hungary's 
notoriously biased opinion polls "considered as a whole" 
favor FIDESZ and are "reliable enough" to make an informed 
prediction. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The "far right" MIEP and JOBBIK parties are not 
serious contenders, according to Martonyi, but they can 
effect the outcome of the race by taking votes away from 
FIDESZ.  He again noted the recent mayoral race in 
Szentendre, where he contended that the far right fared 
better than expected.  Martonyi suggested that MSZP had been 
pitching for far left votes in presenting a "National Day 
decoration" to communist-era Deputy Prime Minister Jozsef 
Marjai.  Martonyi predicted that come election day, the far 
left/communist "Munkaspart" could give the Socialists a few 
valuable percentage points in an extremely close race. 
 
¶10.  (C) Should FIDESZ win, Martonyi acknowledged that he 
would serve as foreign minister, if Orban called on him.  In 
the event of a loss, "Orban will resign as party president 
and quietly slip out of politics for a while."  Orban is 
"young and well connected" and will be on the political scene 
for many years to come, even if he is defeated in 2006, 
according to Martonyi. 
 
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Comment 
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¶11.  (C)  Martonyi's comments track with those of other 
FIDESZ contacts in recent weeks.  The March 18 FIDESZ party 
congress outlined many of the same priorities including 
health care and the theme of working with partners 
(especially EU member states) on foreign affairs issues. 
FIDESZ is optimistic about the outcome of the elections, but 
the race remains too close to call at this point.  As 
Martonyi noted about the far left and right parties, even the 
smallest faction of votes could tip the balance in this very 
close election.  While Martonyi was cautiously optimistic 
about the election outcome, his openness and professionalism 
in dealing with the Embassy and the USG is genuine. 
 
¶12.  (C) Visit U.S. Embassy Budapest's classified website: 
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/budapest/index.cfm. 
WALKER