VZCZCXYZ0018
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #1858/01 0602050
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 012050Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2680
INFO RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 7243
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAR 7739
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 3302
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA PRIORITY 8813
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 3925

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 001858 

SIPDIS 

SIPDIS 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ETRD
SUBJECT: POLO'S SAMUEL MORENO ON ELECTORAL POLITICS, 
URIBE'S NEXT TERM, AND FREE-TRADE 

REF: BOGOTA 1447 

Classified By: Political Counselor Jeffrey DeLaurentis
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 

¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Polo DemocraticoAlternativo (Polo) 
President Samuel Moreno predicted his party would get up to 
17 Senate seats in the March 12 congressional elections.  He 
said the Polo would use anti-free trade rhetoric to win 
votes, and argued that Uribe would have a reduced majority in 
Congress and a harder time getting legislation passed. 
Moreno said he plans to run for Mayor of Bogota in 2007.  End 
summary. 

--------------------- 
The March 12 Election 
--------------------- 

¶2.  (C) According to Moreno, the Polo will get 12-17 Senate
seats on March 12.  He predicted it would get about four of 
the 18 House seats in Bogota.  (He did not comment more 
broadly on how the Polo expects to fare in obtaining House 
seats nationwide.)  Moreno estimated 8-9 of the registered 
parties would not reach the 2 percent "umbral" (the new legal 
threshold to retain their legal status is about 240,000 votes 
nationally).  He said the Polo would benefit from a provision 
in the new electoral rules, which redistributes votes 
originally cast for such parties.  (Even experienced analysts 
are not sure exactly how "umbral" and redistributed votes 
will affect the results.) (Reftel) 

--------------------------------- 
Impact of Free Trade on Elections 
--------------------------------- 

¶3.  (C) Moreno said the free trade agreement (FTA) that 
closed on February 27 will help Polo gain congressional 
representation.  He argued that the 57 percent of people 
holding a negative opinion of the FTA will associate the FTA 
with the "U" Party, likely benefiting the Polo and Liberal 
parties.  Moreno predicted the Polo's strong opposition to 
the FTA could bring as many as 5 additional seats in the 
House, and 1 seat in the Senate.  He suggested the Polo would 
benefit most in the departments of Valle de Cauca, Huila, and 
Tolima, as the economies of these regions are driven by the 
agricultural sector.  (Note: The Polo will try to make the 
FTA a campaign issue.  Moreno, who falls on the moderate side
of his party, said the Polo line is that the GOC should have 
negotiated a continuation of the Andean Trade Preferences and 
Drug Enforcement Act (ATPDEA).  When reminded that the U.S. 
Congress would not extend ATPDEA again, he acknowledged the 
position would be a tough call.  End Note.)

-------------------- 
On Uribe's Next Term 
-------------------- 

¶4.  (SBU) Moreno said Uribe will have more problems getting 
legislation passed with the new Congress then he did with the 
current body.  He predicted the Congress will split about 
55-60 percent in favor of Uribe, and 40-45 percent against 
him.  In the current Congress, Uribe has about 70 percent 
support.  He argued that voters would prefer a "check and 
balance" in the system, between Uribe and left-leaning 
Congressional representation.

¶5.  (C) In Moreno's view, Uribe will likely be able to pass 
some of his less-contentious legislation by simple majority 
vote, especially during the traditional "honeymoon" period. 
He predicted, however, that this period would be considerably 
shorterthen the traditional 2 years.  (Septel)  Moreno said 
Uribe would need to "sweeten the deals" for legislators to 
convince them to vote in favor of his projects. 

¶6.  (C) Moreno compared Uribe to Hugo Chavez, saying his ego 
and consolidation of power may even hurt him within the "U" 
Party.  Both Uribe and Chavez have not effectively shared 
power, said Moreno, and Uribe is increasingly alienating some 
within his own movement.  He also suggested Uribe might take 
a shot at a third term. 

------------------------------- 
The Political Landscape in 2010 
------------------------------- 

¶7.  (SBU) Moreno said the "U" Party will almost certainly 
dissolve before the 2010 Presidential election, sending 
currentUribistas to other parties.  He also believes current 

Bogota Mayor LuchoGarzon (Polo) will be a serious contender 
for President in 2010, and also mentioned Enrique Penalosa, 
Rodrigo Rivera, Rafael Pardo, and German Vargas Lleras as 
other possible candidates.  Moreno said he plans to run for 
Mayor of Bogota in 2007.

------- 
Comment 
------- 

¶8.  (C) The left remains divided in the run-up to 
Congressional and Presidential elections.  Embassy views 
Moreno's predictions across the board as overly optimistic.
WOOD 

=======================CABLE ENDS============================