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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000419 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KCRM KCOR PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ MOB FIGURE MOVES ONE STEP CLOSER TO 
PARLIAMENT BID 
 
REF: A. 05 BISHKEK 1555 
     ¶B. 05 BISHKEK 1572 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  On March 21, the Central Election 
Commission (CEC) announced that it had approved the candidate 
registration of notorious mob figure Ryspek Akmatbayev, who 
is seeking to run for parliament.  The CEC decision clears 
the way for Akmatbayev to run for the seat left vacant when 
his brother, Tynychbek Akmatbayev, was killed in October of 
2005 (reftel a).  The CEC decision also ended a farcical 
round of "pass the political hot potato" in which the CEC, 
Supreme Court and Parliament all sought to avoid making any 
kind of decision on the legality of Akmatbayev's candidate 
registration.  Now legally registered, most observers and 
many parliamentarians expect Akmatbayev to easily win a seat 
in parliament on April 9.  END SUMMARY. 
 
THE BUCK STOPS SOMEWHERE ELSE 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The decision by the CEC to register Akmatbayev as a 
candidate ended a months long debate over the legality of his 
candidate registration.  It also ended a farcical round of 
"pass the political hot potato" in which the CEC, Supreme 
Court and Parliament all sought to avoid making any kind of 
decision on the legality of Akmatbayev's candidate 
registration.  Instead, each in turn claimed it lacked the 
authority to decide the issue, which eventually ended back 
where it started at the CEC. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Although the law prohibits convicted felons from 
running for parliament, Akmatbayev claimed that an April 2004 
general amnesty had wiped his record clean.  (NOTE: 
Akmatbayev was convicted of illegal weapons possession in 
1998, and sentenced to three years in prison.  He received a 
medical exemption, however, and ended up serving no time in 
prison.  END NOTE).  After trying its best to avoid making 
any kind of decision on Akmatbayev's registration, the CEC 
finally agreed with him, and refused to reverse the decision 
by the Balikchy District Election Commission, which had 
initially registered him as a candidate. 
 
CIVIL SOCIETY STRIKES BACK? 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The CEC's decision remains a controversial one.  In 
late February, the Ministry of Internal Affairs issued a 
statement claiming that Akmatbayev was ineligible to run for 
parliament owing to his previous conviction.  On March 20, 
the local NGO Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, 
which has long been a vocal critic of Akmatbayev, issued a 
statement urging the CEC to deny Akmatbayev's registration on 
legal grounds.  An elections expert with the International 
Federation for Electoral Systems (IFES) also told the Embassy 
that the CEC ruling contradicts the Electoral Code, which 
clearly prohibits Akmatbayev from running. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) This may not, however, be the end of the saga.  On 
March 23, Baisalov told the Ambassador that the Coalition is 
considering lodging a complaint with the CEC, so that it will 
be forced to make another ruling.  He added that a number of 
his colleagues oppose taking this step as they are afraid of 
what Ryspek might do in retaliation. 
 
PARLIAMENT AWAITS A NEW POLITICAL BOSS 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) The mood inside parliament, downbeat since the 
removal of former speaker Omurbek Tekebayev, now appears 
resigned to the imminent arrival of Akmatbayev as a new 
colleague.  One parliamentary staffer told PolOff that among 
parliamentarians there was no longer any active resistance or 
impassioned indignation evident, even behind closed doors, 
regarding Akmatbayev becoming a deputy.  Likewise, the 
staffer said, it was clear that once Akmatbayev wins his 
 
BISHKEK 00000419  002 OF 002 
 
 
election handily and arrives in parliament, he will not be a 
minor figure, but will immediately be welcomed and recognized 
as a major political power broker. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7.  (C) During a press conference on March 23, President 
Bakiyev said he does not want to violate the independence of 
the court system and interfere in the Akmatbayev case.  Those 
around him, including Justice Minister Kayipov and 
Presidential Advisor Valentin Bogatyrev whisper to us that 
Bakiyev does not want Akmatbayev to run.  Former Foreign 
Minister Muratbek Imanaliev told PolOff that although Bakiyev 
doesn't want to see Akmatbayev in the Parliament, Bakiyev is 
unsure of how to deal with the mobster and is unwilling to 
confront him ) either out of fear or because he is somehow 
beholden to him.  Should Akmatbayev become a deputy - and 
thus acquire the immunity that comes with the job - it will 
become even harder for Bakiyev to find a legal way to 
sideline him.  A number of interlocutors, including 
Bogatyrev, Chinara Jakypova and Marat Tazabekov (Head of the 
influential AkiPress News Agency) have even suggested that 
Akmatbayev will be rubbed out before he ends up in 
Parliament.  (NOTE: three of Akmatbayev's close associates 
have been killed in the last month ) although there are also 
suggestions Akmatbayev himself knocked them off because they 
"knew too much" about his sordid past.  END NOTE). 
 
¶8.  (C) The CEC has never been one to let the law get in the 
way of its legal verdicts.  The CEC decision almost certainly 
means that it received orders from above to approve 
Akmatbayev's registration.  Given Akmatbayev's very high 
profile and alleged links to the government and President 
Bakiyev's family, there is little chance that the 
Presidential Administration would have left the CEC alone to 
rule on this case.  Akmatbayev almost definitely helped the 
process along too by buying off and/or intimidating the CEC 
into voting his way. 
 
¶9.  (C) The real significance of the CEC decision is that it 
puts Kyrgyzstan's most feared man one step closer to a seat 
in parliament.  Given his wealth and genuine popularity in 
Balikchy (where he is viewed as a Robin Hood figure), there 
is little doubt that he will win on April 9.  The CEC 
decision also casts more doubt on the government's ability 
and willingness to confront organized crime in general, and 
Akmatbayev in particular.  On March 28 the Ambassador will 
send a letter to President Bakiyev, expressing U.S. concern 
over the Kyrgyz government's apparent willingness to allow 
Akmatbayev's candidacy, and the signals this sends regarding 
the government's commitment to democracy and rule of law. 
YOVANOVITCH