VZCZCXRO5572
RR RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHBW #0499/01 0881156
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 291156Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8273
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000499 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: MAR 28, 2016 
TAGS: PREL KDEM SR PBTS PGOV PNAT MW
SUBJECT: SAM: Special Envoy Lajcak Emphasizes Unity 
Needed to Overcome Political Brinkmanship 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michael Polt, reasons 1.4 
(b,d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The Montenegrin referendum campaign has begun 
to heat up and all signs indicate a no-holds barred 
campaign with both sides willing to exploit existing 
tensions to get their preferred outcome.  We are 
coordinating closely with EU Special Envoy Lajcak in 
the run up to the May 21 vote.  The international 
community will need to remain united and play an active 
role to ensure that the referendum's rules are 
followed.  End Summary. 
 
Lajcak Expecting Tough Campaign 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Ambassador Lajcak, the EU's special envoy for 
the Montenegrin referendum, told the Ambassador on 
March 24 that he expects the campaign will be somewhat 
"dirty."  Allegations of vote buying have already begun 
and "provocations of a larger nature are probable." 
Belgrade, Lajcak suggested, clearly wants to have an 
open hand on how to manage the news, as seen in the 
fact that only four of 21 Serbian media outlets 
available in Montenegro signed the media code of 
conduct.  (Note: As of March 27, eight of 21 outlets 
have signed, including the largest, Radio-Television 
Serbia. End note.)  The questionable details 
surrounding the recent allegation of DPS "vote-buying," 
and the sensational and provocative way it played in 
the Belgrade press, is a clear example of the kind of 
mischief that could be expected in the months ahead. 
 
¶3.  (C) Lajcak said that he and EU representatives have 
continued to insist to pro-Independence leaders that 
the 55 percent supermajority is inviolate and that 
there is no "grey zone" (a pro-independence majority 
below 55 percent).  While some EU members, namely 
Slovenia and Hungary, have indicated they would 
recognize Montenegrin independence as long as a 
majority approves the referendum, the EU was working to 
ensure that all of its members remain faithful to the 
EU-brokered arrangement.  Lajcak aknowledged the need 
for the international community to be prepared to fend 
off efforts by Prime Minister Djukanovic to exploit 
divisions in the IC in the case of a grey zone result. 
 
Echoes of the Past: The Heavy Hand of Belgrade 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Lajcak said that Prime Minister Kostunica is 
coordinating closely with the pro-Union opposition on 
ways to affect the May outcome.  He officially unveiled 
his campaign to counter the pro-Independence movement 
this week and, opined Lajcak, Kostunica clearly sees a 
potential victory in Montenegro as a way to improve his 
position in Serbia.  Kostunica and the Montenegrin 
opposition view a pro-Union result as the first step in 
bringing down Djukanovic in parliamentary elections 
scheduled for October 2006. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Lajcak confirmed his lack of success in 
getting Podgorica and Belgrade to begin a dialogue 
about their post-referendum relationship, regardless of 
the outcome.  Kostunica has rejected all dialogue with 
Djukanovic on any issue until after May 21, convinced 
that Djukanovic would use the discussions between the 
two republics to his advantage.  In either scenario 
Lajcak sees it unlikely that there would be any 
productive engagement immediately following the vote. 
This is further complicated by the fact that the 
opposition does not support Belgrade's goal of creating 
a more centralized state dominated by Serbia.  If 
Djukanovic falls short, Lajcak believes all parties 
will focus on the fall parliamentary elections and 
leave possible changes in the State Union for the 
future. 
 
Sign of Things to Come: Voter Fraud and Secret Services 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶6.  (U) On March 23 and 24, Serbian press, primarily 
those which the GOS heavily influences, widely covered 
an alleged video of members of the ruling Democratic 
Party of Socialists (DPS) trying to bribe a citizen in 
Montenegro into casting a pro-independence vote.  The 
two DPS activists claim that Vasilje Mijovic, a pro- 
Union activist who played a role in disseminating the 
video, set them up.  The Montenegrin Interior Ministry 
 
BELGRADE 00000499  002 OF 002 
 
 
had fired Mijovic 10 days earlier for forging his 
college diploma.  Mijovic also was one of the founders 
of the Red Berets, a notorious Serb paramilitary group 
that was responsible for human rights abuses and large 
scale organized crime activities during the nineties. 
He is rumored to be tied to Serbian secret services. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) With only two months left before the 
Montenegrin referendum the rules are set and both sides 
are gearing up for the tough race to the finish. 
Tensions are high and neither Belgrade nor Podgorica 
will hesitate to exploit opportunities -- including 
irresponsible press play -- to produce a favorable 
outcome in one direction or the other.  As the 
referendum approaches, we will supplement our presence 
on the ground in Montenegro to urge fair play, and to 
continue working closely with the EU to encourage all 
parties to act responsibly and follow the guidelines 
outlined in the new referendum law. 
POLT