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RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0427/01 0761513
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171513Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8211
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000427 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: ELECTORAL 
COMMISSIONS SELECTED (Corrected Copy) 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
Ref: Belgrade 400 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Both blocs began quiet door-to-door 
campaigns, unmarked by the death of Milosevic.  The 
Parliament selected members of the Referendum (electoral) 
Commissions at all levels, the last legal step needed. OSCE 
has recommended that 20 long-term observers be deployed 
from early April, with 200 on the day of the vote. Minority 
support for independence appears to be firming, while PM 
Djukanovic has taken the lead in defining the meaning of 
the referendum: independence or a unitary state (run from 
Belgrade).  Meanwhile, a survey showed voters most 
interested in learning, from experts not politicians, what 
the independence options mean for daily quality of life 
issues. End summary. 
 
Electoral Commissions Selected 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) The Montenegrin Parliament on March 15 appointed 
Slovakian diplomat Frantisek Lipka as the President of the 
Republic Referendum Commission yesterday, the Montenegrin 
press reports. The Parliament also appointed members of the 
referendum commissions at both the central and local level, 
as well as members of the parliamentary boards for media 
monitoring and campaign financing.  The commissions are 
mixed, with representatives from pro-Independence and pro- 
Union blocs.  As agreed, Lipka was proposed by the EU 
special envoy Miroslav Lajcak. Lipka has a PhD in Slavic 
languages and was Ambassador of Czechoslovakia to FRY in 
the nineties. 
 
OSCE Releases Needs Assessment for Referendum Monitoring 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶3. (U) The OSCE/ODHIR Needs Assessment Mission recommended 
on March 14 that the referendum observation mission should 
be deployed before the end of March.  The report recommends 
that in addition to a core team of experts, the mission 
should comprise 20 long-term observers to be deployed 
throughout Montenegro in early April.  The mission should 
be enhanced by some 200 short-term observers for 
observation on the referendum day.  (Full report e-mailed 
to EUR/SCE.) 
 
Albanian Vote 
------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Poloff and visiting SaM deskoff met with the 
leaders of Montenegro's two parliamentary Albanian parties 
on March 16.  Mehmet Barthi (Democratic League in 
Montenegro - DSCG) said that ethnic Albanians "cannot be 
satisfied" with the current situation.  He noted that the 
DSCG was meeting later that day with PM Djukanovic, to 
discuss conditions for Albanians -- "if there is no 
movement, the DSCG will not be active participants" in the 
referendum campaign. Barthi added however that the DSCG 
"did not wish to hamper" the pro-Independence bloc. 
Comment:  Barthi's threat to call for his voters to boycott 
the referendum vote, over conditions for Albanians 
(including municipality status for Tuzi, a suburb of 
Podgorica), has faded as expected.  End comment. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Ferhat Dinosa (Democratic Union of Albanians - 
DUA), who is close to Djukanovic's DPS, expected that "no 
Albanian will listen to a call to boycott" the referendum. 
For Albanians and other minorities, Dinosa said 
independence was the only way to avoid "the disappearance 
of Montenegro" and to end "the dream of a greater Serbia." 
Consequently, he expects that over 90 percent of the 
minority vote will go for independence, and that 
independence will get more than the required 55 percent of 
the total vote. 
 
Pollster Gives Opinion on Referendum 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Principal Officer and visiting SaM deskoff met 
with Srdjan Darmanovic of the NGO Center for Democracy and 
Human Rights on March 16.  CEDEM plans to conduct one more 
poll before the vote, releasing the results in late April. 
He was confident that independence would gain 55 percent of 
votes cast, if turnout was at or below the historic high of 
82 percent of registered voters.  He says his data until 
now have shown that Bosniak, Muslim, and Albanian 
minorities will vote solidly for independence, 
notwithstanding political posturing from Barthi and Serbian 
 
BELGRADE 00000427  002 OF 003 
 
 
Sandzak Muslim leader Ugljanin. 
 
Opposition Leader Meets With Solana 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Predrag Bulatovic, leader of the Socialist People's 
Party (SNP) and head of the pro-Union bloc, met with EU HR 
Javier Solana in Brussels March 14. (PM Djukanovic and 
President Marovic met with Solana last week, ref.) Solana 
and Bulatovic agreed that there is no such a thing as a 
"gray zone," but only a law which must be implemented 
fully. Bulatovic added he believed that the GoS should not 
discuss relations between the two republics with the GoM 
before the referendum is held, a position with which Solana 
disagreed. 
 
State Prosecutor Investigating Alleged Voting Fraud 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶8. (U) The State Prosecutor, Vesna Medenica, has said that 
her office will investigate allegations made in the press 
and on the floor of Parliament that political parties are 
purchasing identification documents or applying pressure to 
citizens regarding voting in the referendum.  She said that 
so far, no prosecutors have informed her of receiving 
reports of such pressure. Independent NGO Center for 
Democratic Transition (CDT) (a USAID subgrantee through 
NDI) confirmed to Consulate media reports that it has also 
not received reports of i.d. cards being bought. They added 
that such an action would be "senseless," as driver's 
licenses and passports can also be used to verify a voter's 
identity.  Comment: It is commonly believed that the ruling 
DPS "rented" i.d. cards from potential opposition voters in 
the 2002 elections, to hold down the opposition vote (no 
i.d. means no vote). The action was seen as unfair, but not 
illegal so long as no attempt was made to use the "rented" 
card to vote; as described by prosecutor Medenica, 2003 
changes in the law now make such "rental" illegal. End 
comment. 
 
Djukanovic Says Vote is For Independence or Unitary State 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶9. (U) PM Djukanovic, speaking with local media March 15, 
said that in the forthcoming referendum, citizens would in 
fact vote for either independence or a federation, adding 
that a federation would soon develop into a unitary state 
in which Montenegro "would be a faceless part of the state 
of Serbia and would even be left without its name."  He 
rejected Predrag Bulatovic's (SNP) assertion that a pro- 
Union vote would leave the present State Union unchanged. 
He noted that the pro-Union People's Party (NS) already 
announced that it sought to bring back the dinar, and 
stressed that the authorities in Belgrade are unwilling to 
discuss the post-referendum relationship between Montenegro 
and Serbia. 
 
PM Distances Self from FM on "Grey Zone" Scenario 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
¶10. (U) At a press conference March 15, PM Milo Djukanovic 
distanced himself from statements recently made by 
Montenegrin FM Miodrag Vlahovic that Montenegro would 
withdraw its representatives from Belgrade if the 
referendum result fell within the gray zone of 50 and 55 
percent. Calling the withdrawal statement Vlahovic's 
"personal position," Djukanovic added that in the case of a 
"gray zone" result, the authorities "will consider all 
possible solutions."  The PM concluded that "in my opinion, 
independence is supported by more than 55 per cent." 
 
Citizens Most Concerned about Quality of Life Issues 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶11. (U) A survey released by the Montenegro Media Institute 
showed that citizens expect the media to report about basic 
quality of life issues during the referendum campaign and 
that experts, not politicians, should elaborate on those 
issues for the public. The citizens are most interested in 
an explanation of what will happen if the referendum 
succeeds or fails regarding: access to medical treatment, 
living standards, currency, inflation rate, conditions for 
favorable credits, employment opportunities, food prices, 
pensions, new road construction, tourism development, visas 
for foreign travel, and studying in Serbia. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Two weeks into the referendum campaign, political 
 
BELGRADE 00000427  003 OF 003 
 
 
discourse within Montenegro remains civil, even as both 
blocs (with the possible exception of the SNP) make efforts 
to draw clear distinctions between the outcomes. The death 
of Slobodan Milosevic garnered little notice, after the 
initial shock of the announcement. The agreed 80-day 
campaign period is perhaps longer than could be seriously 
sustained by the blocs, especially the pro-Union bloc, and 
the pace, and perhaps the temperature of the discussion, is 
expected to increase as May 21 referendum date nears. 
 
POLT