VZCZCXRO4677
PP RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0322/01 0610738
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 020738Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8085
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000322 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL KDEM SR PBTS PGOV PNAT MW
SUBJECT: Montenegro Referendum: Rules of the Game Are 
Set 
 
REF: Belgrade 299 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) The Montenegrin parliament has adopted the EU- 
proposed ground rules for the independence referendum, 
which will be held 21 May.  Nonetheless, the pro- 
independence government strongly complained that the 
EU-recommended 55 percent super-majority is unfair and 
more stringent than existing European standards. Some 
government representatives have indicated that they 
will continue to actively oppose the State Union if the 
pro-independence movement gains over 50%, but less than 
55%.  Solana plans to discuss such a "grey zone" 
scenario with PM Djukanovic, and later opposition 
leader Bulatovic, in the next two weeks. End Summary. 
 
The EU Sets the Rules 
--------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Late on 1 March, the Montenegrin parliament 
adopted the Law on Referendums, which establishes the 
parameters of the independence referendum and reflects 
the formal recommendations that the EU supported at 
Monday's GAERC.  The legislation requires 50 percent of 
registered voters to participate and 55 percent of 
those who participate to approve the referendum for it 
to be valid.  The law also sets the date as 21 May, 
approves international observation, postpones local 
elections until the parliamentary election slated for 
October, and formalizes a variety of additional, less- 
controversial guidelines.  Additionally, Ambassador 
Lajcak, the EU's special envoy for the referendum, told 
emboffs that the pro-Union opposition has dropped its 
demand that the complicated requirements for approving 
a referendum as outlined by the Milosevic-era 
constitution be fulfilled. 
 
¶3.  (U) Lajcak additionally informed us that two 
outstanding issues remained, although they would be 
resolved soon.  He said that the law requires 
parliament to approve an international representative 
to chair the Republic Election Commission by March 11. 
Brussels will recommend three candidates to Podgorica 
who would be EU senior diplomats and have legal 
backgrounds, regional knowledge, and preferably speak 
Serbian. Lajcak also noted that an agreement on 
referendum financing was nearly complete.  The GoM had 
Euro 5 million for elections in its CY2006 budget.  The 
EU is proposing that Podgorica spend three million on 
election/referendum administration and infrastructure. 
The two sides will divide an additional one million for 
referendum campaigning and one million for 
parliamentary elections. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) [Comment: Lajcak said that Javier Solana has 
invited Prime Minister Djukanovic and opposition leader 
Predrag Bulatovic to Brussels on 8 March and 15 March 
respectively.  The purpose of these meetings is to 
reward them for their political maturity and to discuss 
the political implications of a grey zone result (i.e.- 
if the pro-Independence side receives a majority of 
votes cast, but does not surpass 55 percent).  Lajcak 
added that his official mandate ended upon passage of 
the referendum law, but both sides have requested his 
continued participation.  Coincidentally, Lajcak fits 
the requirements of the Chair of the Republic Election 
Board almost perfectly.  End Comment]. 
 
The Government: Angry, but Accepting 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Clearly distraught pro-independence 
interlocutors openly expressed their hostility toward 
the EU's requirement for a 55 percent super-majority. 
They described the measure as "undemocratic" and that 
it violated the "fundamental principle of equality of 
voting rights." Miodrag Vukovic, the parliamentary whip 
for the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), 
said his party ultimately accepted the measure as a 
necessity to maintain Montenegro's path toward EU 
accession.  Ivan Brajovic, Vice President of the Social 
Democratic Party (the junior coalition partner), said 
that his staunchly pro-independence party would not 
accept the EU requirements, but did so knowing that its 
decision would not mpede passage of the law. 
Nonetheless, Ivan Lekoic, Chef d'Cabinet of President 
Vujanovic, commeted that Djukanovic did a good job 
calming the stuation and moving the pro-independnce 
 
BELGRADE 00000322  002 OF 002 
 
 
side to support the EU proposal. 
 
¶6.  (U) In discussions with emboffs, Vukovic, Brajovic, 
and Branko Lukovac, Leader of the Movement for 
Independence, said that they remained confident that 
their side would receive more than 55 percent of the 
vote.  Nonetheless, they had clearly spent considerable 
time focusing on a potential response to a grey zone 
result.  Vukovic said that the DPS was considering a 
variety of reactions, although noted that many party 
leaders, during an emotionally charged meeting, 
recommended that the GOM declare independence 
immediately in case of a grey zone result, regardless 
of the repercussions.  Brajovic and Lukovac suggested 
that their supporters held similar sentiments. 
 
The Opposition: Now We Have a Chance 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (U) The opposition forces have generally welcomed 
the EU recommendations and Srdjan Bozovic, Deputy Head 
of the Socialist People's Party, told emboffs that it 
"gives the opposition a real chance to win."  The new 
law addresses many of the pro-Union forces' concerns 
about access to media, campaign financing, and a 
continued EU presence.  He still complained, however, 
about the possible influx of private monies to support 
the pro-independence forces.  Bozovic refused to 
acknowledge a potential grey zone or that the 
opposition would need to make a special effort to reach 
out to pro-independence voters in case of a grey zone 
result.  Additionally, he acknowledged that the 
opposition parties had increased their cooperation, 
which would be needed for the pro-union side to 
prevail.  He said that the recent decision of the 
Serbian People's Party to end its isolation and work 
with the other opposition forces was welcome. 
 
The Ethnic-Albanian Parties: An Important Sideshow 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶8.  (U) Emboffs met with the leaders of the two main 
ethnic-Albanian political parties, between whom 
relations have grown distant.  Mehmet Barthi, Leader of 
the Democratic League of Albanians has demanded that 
Djukanovic agree--in writing--to several long-standing 
demands of his constituents.  Otherwise, he intends to 
advise them to abstain, which he acknowledges is, in 
essence, a pro-Union vote.  Ferhat Dinosa, leader of 
the Democratic Union of Albanians and a member of the 
government, contends that Barthi's politicking is 
poorly timed and that he should not jeopardize 
independence from Serbia--a key goal for all ethnic- 
Albanian Montenegrins--for some local, parochial 
interests.  Although Barthi controls only about 4,000- 
5,000 ethnic-Albanian votes, these votes could prove 
crucial if the referendum is as tight as some predict. 
Nonetheless, pundits suggest that Barthi will not 
recommend any course of action to his supporters that 
will lead to a closer union with Belgrade and that this 
is a game of brinkmanship with Djukanovic.  Barthi 
himself admitted that he was doubtful that his 
constituents would follow such a directive. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The super-majority and other agreements that 
the EU brokered have injected a sense of uncertainty 
about the referendum outcome.  The independence bloc 
remains the favorite, with its superior party machinery 
and significantly larger sources of funds.  To get more 
than 45 percent of the vote, the pro-Union opposition 
will need to demonstrate much greater unity than it has 
shown in the past, overcome its former advocacy of a 
boycott, and reach out to non-parliamentary opposition 
parties -- including Seselj's Radicals. A grey zone 
result is quite possible and would cause further 
disruptions in the State Union relationship as well as 
inside Montenegro.  This means that the EU will then 
need to continue its brokering role to look for an 
effective working relationship between the two 
republics.  The ambassador will discuss such 
contingency planning in his next meeting with EU Envoy 
Lajcak. 
 
POLT