VZCZCXRO7877
PP RUEHCN
DE RUEHBJ #4761 0731035
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 141035Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0224
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 004761 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2016 
TAGS: PINS PGOV PREL CH JP
SUBJECT: SCHOLAR DISCUSSES PRC ANALYSIS OF QDR AND 
TRANSFORMATIONAL DIPLOMACY, ROLE OF XIONG GUANGKAI, 
JAPAN-CHINA ISSUES 
 
Classified By: Political External Chief Edgard Kagan. 
Reason 1.4 (d) 
 
QDR and Transformational Diplomacy 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶1.  (C) Chinese analysts are closely scrutinizing the 
Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) and Secretary Rice's 
"Transformational Diplomacy" speech, according to 
Professor Jin Canrong, Associate Dean of the School of 
Strategic Studies at Renmin University.  During a 
meeting with Poloff March 8, Jin, a prominent 
commentator on U.S.-China and Asian issues, said 
analysis of the QDR focused on the exact number of 
mentions of China in the document and on the context 
of the PRC's description as a "country at strategic 
crossroads" and as a country with the potential to 
compete militarily with the United States.  Secretary 
Rice's Transformational Diplomacy Initiative raised 
concerns about "real U.S. intentions" behind the focus 
on democratization and plans to send more diplomats 
into the PRC. 
 
PLA International Affairs: Xiong Out of the Game 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶2.  (C) Asked about the role of recently retired 
Deputy Chief of General Staff General Xiong Guangkai, 
Jin stated that Xiong no longer has much of a role in 
the PLA's international activities because he has left 
his most influential position as commander of the PLA 
General Staff's Second Directorate.  President Hu 
Jintao's principles of professionalization, 
institutionalization and division of labor, Jin said, 
do not concentrate power in individuals, but designate 
responsibilities to be handled by the proper 
authority.  MG Zhang Ginseng, who took over 
responsibility for the PLA Second Directorate, will 
handle the PLA's international affairs, according to 
Jin. 
 
PRC-Japan 
--------- 
 
¶3.  (C) The development of U.S.-China relations may 
offer a model for Sino-Japan rapprochement, Jin 
stated.  He discussed his involvement in a recent 
Sino-Japan seminar in Tokyo sponsored by Japanese 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe's office.  The 
participants were mainly working-level Japanese career 
officials who work on foreign policy.  Jin presented a 
paper on the development of U.S.-China ties, which he 
said his interlocutors viewed as a model for the 
recovery of strained Sino-Japan relations.  Though Jin 
said that most of the Japanese participants agreed on 
the need to restore stable long-term relations with 
the PRC, Jin said, some officials confessed a "deep 
hearted" fear about a "rising China" which constrains 
them from promoting good relations with the PRC. 
 
¶4.  (C) Jin claimed that his Japanese interlocutors 
described feeling a sense of "drift" and discomfort 
with Japan's strategic direction.  Although Prime 
Minister Koizumi is offering an activist foreign 
policy strategy for Japan, it is not universally 
accepted among career officials that his direction is 
the right one.  Jin said some participants expressed 
hope that other politicians will not follow PM Koizumi 
in playing up Yasukuni Shrine visits. 
RANDT