This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001473 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TH SNAP
SUBJECT: EAP DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY JOHN'S MEETING WITH 
DEMOCRAT PARTY DEPUTY LEADER SURIN 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH BOYCE.  REASON 1.4(D) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary:  During a March 8 meeting with EAP Deputy 
Assistant Secretary John and the Ambassador, Democrat Party 
Deputy Leader and former Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan 
voiced his hope that the Palace would convince Prime Minister 
Thaksin to step down.  He acknowledged, however, that the 
King would likely be reluctant to oust a populist leader 
elected by a large majority of the populace.  Surin said that 
the DP is mounting a series of rallies around Thailand to 
encourage the electorate to check "no vote" on their ballots 
in next month's elections. He claimed that Thaksin's TRT 
party is busily paying individuals to oppose it under the 
banner of small inconsequential parties in order to give the 
appearance of a real electoral contest.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (C)  Democrat Party Deputy Leader and former Foreign 
Minister Surin Pitsuwan met with EAP DAS John on March 8, 
just prior to his leaving for a series of rallies around 
Thailand to encourage the electorate to check "no vote" on 
their ballots in next month's elections.  Surin said that DP 
leaders are explaining to voters throughout Thailand their 
party's rationale for refusing participation in the polls. 
Surin claimed that the election would be rigged and that the 
DP did not want to legitimize an essentially "dirty process." 
 He added that in the absence of the DP running, the TRT is 
paying individuals to oppose it under the banner of small 
inconsequential parties and busily forging the paperwork to 
allow the ersatz candidates to meet residential, educational 
and time-in-party requirements.  In his district in Nakhon Si 
Thammarat, said Surin, the TRT had offered 1 million baht to 
a local candidate to run against it, but the potential 
recruit was holding out for three million. (Note: 
registration of candidates concluded on March 8 afternoon.) 
 
 
¶3.  (C)  DAS John noted that the Shin Corp sale appears to 
have been a tipping point, but that Thaksin has not actually 
been caught out committing a blatantly illegal action -- so 
why the boycott and clamor for his resignation?  Surin 
responded that Thaksin's "sin" has been a consistent evasion 
of the law and misuse of authority.  He and his regime have 
undermined and manipulated all of the country's supervisory 
mechanisms -- the Security and Exchange Commission, the 
Constitutional Court, the Election Commission, the Tax 
Department, etc.  Thaksin has been "too good" at manipulating 
small weaknesses in a generally good -- though in need of 
some adjustment -- constitution, Surin said.  Even the 
nominally independent courts are suborned by Thaksin through 
bribery.  In addition, Thaksin controlled the electronic 
media and much of the print media, Surin complained.  Why 
participate when the system will be manipulated against you? 
Surin concluded. 
 
¶4.  (C)  Surin acknowledged international criticism of the 
DP's decision to boycott the April polls.  DAS John asked how 
he would address critics who say that the DP is a 
"spoilsport" that, cognizant that the Prime Minister would 
win in a new election, will try to bring him down by other 
means.  Surin responded that the political and governmental 
system itself has gone bad under Thaksin -- constitutional 
controls have been undermined by the Prime Minister and 
electoral watchdog bodies compromised. 
 
¶5.  (C)  The Ambassador raised the seeming divide between 
Thaksin's political base in north and northeast Thailand on 
the one hand and Bangkok on the other.  Surin said that the 
average low income worker or farmer in populous Isaan 
(northeast) Thailand is "not interested" and does not want to 
know about the crisis that Thaksin has created by his abuse 
of power.  "It is the educated in Bangkok and the elite" who 
are carrying the struggle, he added. 
 
¶6.  (C)  When DAS John asked where he thought the situation 
was going, Surin said that he hoped that someone such as 
Privy Council Chairman General Prem Tinsulanonda would be 
able to weigh in with the Palace's authority to persuade 
Thaksin to go for the sake of the country's stability.  He 
opined that otherwise Thaksin will not likely go without 
being pushed.  If Article 7 comes into play, Surin said, the 
King could appoint a new Prime Minister and "fair and 
transparent" elections be scheduled.  (Note: Article 7 
stipulates that "Whenever no provision under this 
Constitution is applicable to any case, it shall be decided 
in accordance with the constitutional practice in the 
democratic regime of government with the King as Head of the 
State.")  The Ambassador asked if the DP had lines through to 
the Palace towards this eventuality.  Surin said he thought 
not, but that the DP was "hopeful" that the Palace would 
decide "enough is enough" and tell Thaksin to go.  (Note:  On 
March 8 Privy Councillor and former Supreme Commander General 
Surayut Chulanont issued a call for a dialogue between 
Thaksin and his opposition.) 
¶7.  (C)  Surin agreed with the Ambassador that the King would 
be reluctant to oust a populist leader elected by a large 
majority of the populace and still apparently enjoying great 
popularity outside of Bangkok and the DP's traditional 
stronghold in Thailand's south.  The Palace would not want to 
appear to take sides in this contest between Thaksin and his 
enemies, he noted. 
 
¶8.  (C)  Another variable in the ongoing situation is the 
upcoming celebration of the King's 60th anniversary of his 
accession to the throne, said Surin.  He said that the 
results of the flawed elections may not be resolved by then 
and the Palace would be apprehensive over the celebrations 
taking place amid an atmosphere of national political 
uncertainty.  The anti-Thaksin demonstrators under the 
People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) umbrella would likely 
call for a break during the celebrations.  The situation is 
"messy" with no "happy" options, Surin said.  The Parliament 
cannot even be re-seated because the decree dissolving it had 
immediate effect.  Thinking aloud, Surin added that Thaksin 
could have saved himself and the country considerable trouble 
if, rather than dissolve Parliament, he had resigned and 
appointed a malleable successor. 
 
¶9.  (C)  The Ambassador noted that the DP has some dubious 
company on its side of the anti-Thaksin front -- Sondhi has a 
questionable business past and Chamlong is out of date and 
heads a strange cult of followers.  Surin agreed and noted 
that the DP is avoiding the anti-Thaksin rallies sponsored by 
Sondhi and the PAD.  Rather, DP representatives are 
participating in academic seminars on issues such as 
Thaksin's alleged stock manipulation and tax evasion. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BOYCE