This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

091006Z Mar 06

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 001472 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV TH TRT SNAP
SUBJECT: EAP DAS JOHN MEETS WITH THAKSIN'S BRAIN TRUST 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH L. BOYCE.  REASON 1.4 (B,D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary. In a March 3 meeting with visiting EAP DAS 
Eric John and the Ambassador, principal advisor to the Prime 
Minister Pansak Vinyaratn brushed aside rumors that Thaksin 
could yet resign, that the ruling Thai Rak Thai party could 
have problems in the April 2 snap election, or that military 
or royal intervention in the political crisis was likely. 
Pansak instead outlined his own colorful analysis of the 
situation, calling the current challenge to Thaksin the "last 
hurrah of the old wealthy class."  Thaksin and his party, 
meanwhile, are preparing to expand their efforts to reform 
the Thai political system to include more direct 
participation following the April 2 vote.  Pansak even hopes 
to export this new "custom of democracy" to Burma and China. 
End Summary. 
 
THAKSIN STILL HOLDS ALL THE CARDS 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) In a meeting with DAS John and the Ambassador on March 
3, Pansak Vinyaratn--one of Thaksin's closest advisers and 
strategists--brimmed with fatigued confidence.  Replete with 
profanity-laced riffs which are his trademark, Pansak 
dismissed rumors that the PM may resign, or that Thaksin's 
Thai Rak Thai party (TRT) would have technical difficulty 
filling enough seats to form a new government following the 
April 2 snap election.  The Army remains "balanced" and a 
military coup improbable.  According to Pansak, the King has 
signaled that he is not currently interested in intervening; 
"why should he want to be a hero at the wrong time?"  When 
asked if Thaksin and TRT still hold all the cards in the 
current crisis, Pansak responded "absolutely."  That said, 
the situation remains fluid and Pansak did not completely 
rule out a scenario where Thaksin loses power.  "Worst case? 
I (get some) rest." 
 
"THE LAST HURRAH OF THE OLD WEALTHY CLASS" 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (C) The current political crisis is the "last hurrah of 
the old wealthy class," according to Pansak.  This cabal of 
political and economic elite who have dominated modern Thai 
society are "absolutely, deeply resentful" of Thaksin, who 
Pansak suggests is a new type of businessman and politician. 
Pansak said he told Thaksin, "all of these people who have 
lost their role in society, who have lost their shirts 
because of arrogance, want to come back (and defeat 
Thaksin.)"  This "unholy alliance" of big business, the 
Democrat Party and "some people close to the palace" remain 
feckless.  They have no specific programs or platforms and 
lack even the leadership to defeat Thaksin, according to 
Pansak.  They had to get media mogul Sondhi Limthongkul "out 
of the grave" to lead their cause.  They "keep losing at the 
polls because they never follow through on their promises." 
After decades of dominance under both military and civilian 
rule they have been pushed aside by Thaksin, "someone who 
actually does what he says he'll do." 
 
¶4. (C) According to Pansak, these elite "dream that pre-97 
(the era predating the current constitution, which was marked 
by unstable political coalitions prone to party switching) 
can come back...they are dreaming."  Shifts in the regional 
economy were also contributing to the waning influence of the 
traditional elite.  "Is it really possible to have the 
commodity-peer-competitor mercantile group (from) the cold 
war era now?" As an example, Pansak stated that a recent deal 
with a major Chinese corporation to build and operate a 
massive motorbike factory in Thailand was the first time that 
such a deal had been completed without the participation of 
one of the elite Thai mega-corporations as a middle man.  The 
Chinese had made the deal directly with local contractors and 
suppliers.  According to Pansak, "the Chinese dynamo affects 
Thai politics" and the old elite don't even know it. 
 
¶5. (C) Pansak also denounced the "arrogance" of the political 
opposition.  According to Pansak, the King's personal private 
secretary Arsa Sarasin had called Democrat Party Chief 
 
SIPDIS 
Abhisit Vejjahiva to ask him if he would like to meet Thaksin 
at the palace to discuss the current crisis.  Abhisit 
refused, saying that if the palace would like him to meet 
with the PM, they would have to submit a list of subjects for 
discussion first.  (Comment.  Abhisit told the press on 
Thursday that he had been invited to meet with Thaksin at the 
palace, but would only palaver with the PM if a neutral 
witness was present. End Comment.) 
 
THAKSIN HASN'T WEAKENED DEMOCRACY 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) While acknowledging the conventional wisdom that 
Thaksin was the first politician to master the changes of the 
1997 constitution in building his electoral juggernaught, 
Pansak rejected the assertion that the PM has undercut the 
independent institutions designed to check his office. Using 
a colorful and unprintable metaphor to support his point, 
Pansak explained that TRT was not about to undercut the 
public perception that Thaksin is very strong.  The facts, 
however, belie this assertion, according to Pansak. Thaksin 
has failed to push through several big-ticket programs, such 
as public utility privatization. 
 
¶7. (C)  Indeed, the independent institutions formed under the 
1997 constitution remain robust if not openly opposed to the 
PM, according to Pansak.  The head of the constitutional 
court is the owner of former PM and Democrat Party senior 
adviser Chuan Leekpai's rental house.  Pansak also denied 
that Thaksin had manipulated the consitutional court.  (In 
2001, the court, in a 8-7 vote, acquitted the PM of failing 
to disclose assets in 1997.  In 2006, the court, again in a 
close vote, denied a request by a group of senators to 
investigate his sale of Shin Corp.) "If Thaksin was so good, 
do you think the court would have accepted either case?  If 
he's a dictator...(the vote to acquit) should be 14-0." 
 
 
A NEW MODEL FOR THAI DEMOCRACY 
------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (C) Thaksin, in fact, has strengthened democracy, 
according to Pansak, and TRT will continue to consolidate 
these gains after their certain victory in the April 2 vote. 
"Everyone thinks that Thaksin came from the Thai elite, 
meaning the system is not completely democratic yet...that's 
not reality."  Thaksin's power base "is the people." Quoting 
another Thai intellectual, Pansak said, "It took the 
communists forty years to try and divide Thai society, but 
TRT took only five years to capture the hearts and minds of 
the people." 
 
¶9. (C) Pansak envisions a better balance between 
representational democracy and direct, popular democracy.  In 
Pansak's analysis, the Thai elite who have dominated the 
country for so long have focused too much on a form of 
representative democracy that meets their needs and minimizes 
the voices of the masses.  The success of more direct 
democracy will depend in large part on the ability of the 
people to exercise their rights. The current crisis "shows 
that the political elite are still fairly immature."  Pansak, 
who is currently involved in a project to develop a world 
class public library system in Thailand, wants to build a 
custom or culture of democracy in Thailand, "where people 
exercise their rights." Example: "if you want to protest go 
ahead, but then go ahead and participate in the election." 
In the past, journalists were thrown in jail.  "Now, we sue 
them, because we believe in the custom of democracy." 
 
¶10. (C) Pansak was less clear in explaining how he and TRT 
intend to formalize this mix of democracy, but he appears to 
support Thaksin's public intentions to reform the 
constitution.  "I have never accepted the (1997) 
constitution...it's crap, not democracy...how can you write 
in the amount of national spending that each province is 
supposed to get?  That's not even written in the newly 
independent African states' constitutions." 
 
BUT WHAT ROLE FOR THE MONARCHY? 
------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (C) Absent from Pansak's "big-think" analysis was any 
explicit mention of a role for the monarchy in a new Thai 
democracy.  However, Pansak did diverge from a discussion 
about the political opposition with a cryptic sentence or two 
that seemed to suggest a preference for a respected but 
politically uninvolved monarch.  "To revere the King in the 
correct manner is to allow him to be in the palace with 
happiness and his eunuchs only come out of the palace to go 
to the supermarket.  So always fund beautiful roads for 
eunuchs to go back to the palace...the situation now is, 
build beautiful roads for eunuchs to go back to the palace." 
 
 
THAILAND'S NEW EXPORT...DEMOCRACY TO BURMA/CHINA? 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶12. (C) Pansak hopes to take his idea of a "custom of 
democracy" on the road.  "If we can finish this (current 
crisis) I'll tell Thaksin to go to Rangoon and tell the 
(military leadership), see?  Democracy means you have 
insurance...you can feel safe about giving up some powers. 
After Rangoon, we go to Beijing...if successful, we can 
export to your guys in Latin America...I should get a Nobel 
Prize for this!" 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶13. (C) Pansak is one of Thaksin's closest advisers and the 
source of much TRT strategy.  His unmistakable confidence 
that the PM will weather the current political storm could be 
taken as further evidence that the conventional wisdom among 
much of the Bangkok elite--that Thaksin's days are 
numbered--remains wishful thinking and that TRT is prepared 
to overcome any technical challenges in the April 2 vote.  On 
the other hand, it could simply represent misplaced TRT 
hubris.  Pansak's predictions (and humorous efforts to paint 
Thaksin as a man of the people) aside, his analysis of the 
structural battles between the old elite and the new rings 
true.  Either way, Pansak's colorful commentary, in addition 
to being supremely entertaining, offered a persuasive 
explication of what the Thaksin phenomena is all about and 
why it may have yet to run its course. 
BOYCE