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PP RUEHBC RUEHDBU RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHLH RUEHMOS RUEHPW
DE RUEHKB #0433/01 0810723
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 220723Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9905
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNISL/ISLAMIC COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 1550
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RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BAKU 000433 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CARC AND NEA/NGA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2016 
TAGS: PHUM KDEM PGOV PREL PINR KISL AJ IR
SUBJECT: EUR A/S FRIED DISCUSSES DEMOCRACY, IRAN, ISLAM 
WITH AZERBAIJANI CIVIL SOCIETY LEADERS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Reno L. Harnish, III, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
. 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY.  In a meeting with Azerbaijan's civil society 
leaders, EUR A/S Dan Fried discussed democratization, Iran, 
and Islamic extremism.  Many civil society leaders noted a 
disengagement from politics by the population after the 
November elections failed to meet their high expectations. 
While some characterized Azerbaijan as becoming another 
Uzbekistan, others would not go so far.  The most important 
actions the GOAJ could take, in their view, included 
releasing political prisoners, punishing police misconduct, 
reforming the election commissions to remove unfair GOAJ 
advantages, and actually implementing its own election laws. 
While Imam Ilgar Ibrahimoglu stoutly denied the existence of 
any form of Islamic extremism in Azerbaijan and held 
"provocative" Western actions entirely responsible for recent 
Iranian policies, others noted attempts by both Iran and 
Saudi Arabia to build up Islamic extremism in Azerbaijan. 
Some of the civil society leaders also discussed their own 
contacts with democratic elements among the ethnic Azeri 
population in Iran, and their attempts to work with those 
elements on democracy questions both in Azerbaijan and in 
Iran.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) On March 14, Ambassador hosted a tea for leaders of 
Azerbaijan's civil society to meet with EUR A/S Dan Fried. 
Ambassador, EUR/CARC Director Rood, and EUCOM J5 Eurasia 
chief COL Anderson were also present.  The civil society 
leaders were: 
 
--Rasim Musabayov, independent political analyst 
--Nazim Imanov, independent political analyst 
--Murad and Rena Saddadinov, human rights activists 
--Saida Gojamanly, human rights activist 
--Leyla Yunus, human rights activist 
--Saadat Benanyarly, human rights activist 
--Novella Jafaroglu, human rights activist 
--Imam Haji Ilgar Ibrahimoglu, leader of the Juma Mosque 
Community 
 
---------------------------- 
AFTER THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) A/S Fried began the meeting by thanking the civil 
society leaders for coming and by described his trip so far. 
The United States is watching the upcoming rerun elections 
closely and Fried urged the civil society leaders to take an 
active part in them.  He added that recent events in Ukraine 
are focusing renewed interest on Caspian energy.  Finally, 
the issue of Iranian policy and behavior is again in the news 
in the region and in the United States.  Fried asked for the 
opinion of the civil society leaders on Azerbaijan after the 
November election, and, noting that he would see President 
Aliyev later that day, asked what issues would they like him 
to raise with the Azerbaijani leader. 
 
¶4. (C) Leyla Yunus said the elections had been damaging as 
people's high expectations had been disappointed.  President 
Aliyev's two decrees had sparked hope, but the decrees had 
not been carried out and ultimately were a Soviet-style 
trick.  Detentions had risen following the elections, not one 
police officer had been tried for misconduct, and the courts 
were taking no action.  Azerbaijan, she said, is following 
the path of Uzbekistan.  The new Ministry of Emergency 
Situations would likely become a new vehicle for repression, 
she added.  Given this situation, she feels it is hard to 
decide if participating in the rerun elections is worth it. 
As far as a message for President Aliyev, Yunus said he 
should be told to punish police misconduct, release political 
prisoners, and change the structure of election commissions 
to remove the GOAJ's unfair advantage.  Yunus then presented 
A/S Fried with her list of political prisoners (NOTE: The 
Council of Europe currently lists three political prisoners). 
 
¶5. (C) Saida Gojamanly said her organization is awaiting the 
2005 Human Rights Report with interest.  She noted that an 
official who engaged in direct suppression of the 2003 
demonstrations is now serving as a Deputy Minister of the 
 
BAKU 00000433  002 OF 004 
 
 
Interior and might even become Minister.  Where is the U.S. 
reaction to this, she asked rhetorically (NOTE: This was 
noted in the most recent Human Rights Report).  Always, she 
said, people have hoped that the "next" elections would be 
better, but election laws have never been implemented.  The 
annulled elections, she claimed, are all in constituencies 
where opposition candidates won.  The still-unsolved murder 
of journalist Eldar Husseynov is a frightening warning of 
what can happen.  President Aliyev, said Gojamanly, should 
definitely be told to release political prisoners but should 
also be told to watch his own officials closely and see that 
they actually implement election laws and his own decrees. 
 
¶6. (C) Novella Jafaroglu said bluntly that civil society 
groups "have no influence" in Azerbaijan.  As far as what to 
tell President Aliyev, she said that protecting freedom of 
expression would be a nice idea but that right in the 
abstract does not do much.  For example, journalists like 
Elmar Husseynov are killed, others are wounded or 
intimidated.  The courts are not making fair decisions, she 
added, whenever these matters are brought to judicial 
attentions.  There is a real downside for middle-class 
persons trying to enter politics, she noted -- they can have 
their assets and property "appropriated" by the GOAJ 
overnight.  This, she argued, is an effective tool to keep 
them silent.  The Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K) issue is also 
exploited to distract attention and keep the public in line. 
In a sense, this is made easier for the GOAJ, she believes, 
by the fact that Azerbaijan is a presidential republic, which 
concentrates great power in a single individual.  Jafaroglu 
then presented A/S Fried with her organization's final report 
on police misconduct during the November 26 demonstrations. 
 
¶7. (C) Nazim Imanov believes that Azerbaijan's people have 
lost interest in politics and have done so for two reasons. 
First, their heightened expectations of the most recent 
elections were not met -- and since the elections, the GOAJ 
has not made needed changes or reforms.  A second reason is 
the lack of progress on N-K and the failure of the 
Rambouillet talks -- people are getting more interested in a 
military resolution because they believe a peaceful solution 
is not possible any more.  Gojamanly spoke up and reminded 
the group of President Aliyev's donning of military fatigues 
and visiting the line of contact after the Rambouillet talks 
failed. 
 
¶8. (C) Saadat Benanyarly said that the conduct of the 
November elections greatly reduced the public's trust in any 
future elections.  Finger-inking and other innovations were 
ultimately not crucial -- vote-counting was.  The 
middle-class also was substantially intimidated before the 
vote.  Nazim Imanov actually won a seat, but in the 
vote-count his seat was stolen from him.  Since the 
elections, prices have risen and the standard of living has 
decreased, said Benanyarly.  This has hurt professionals 
especially -- doctors, teachers, et cetera -- and contributed 
to the souring of the public mood. 
 
¶9. (C) Murat Saddadinov said that he does not see Azerbaijan 
as another Uzbekistan -- to him, it is more like a second 
Belarus and developing on the same pattern, with expansion of 
Russian business interests in-country.  When former Secretary 
of State Madeleine Albright met with then-Minister of 
Economic Development Farhad Aliyev during her visit last year 
on behalf of NDI, the GOAJ spun the meeting as a planning 
session for a revolution, similar to Belarus-style 
propaganda.  Civil society activists have to stick together, 
said Saddadinov.  Power in Azerbaijan is built on corruption, 
he asserted.  He agreed that the issue of political prisoners 
definitely should be raised with President Aliyev. 
 
-------------------------- 
IRAN AND ISLAMIC EXTREMISM 
-------------------------- 
 
¶10. (C) Imanov noted how Azerbaijani society is constantly 
discussing the issue of Iran and possible military action by 
the United States.  Imanov said that he himself does not 
believe the United States will begin military operations 
against Iran, but that a majority of Azerbaijanis do not want 
 
BAKU 00000433  003 OF 004 
 
 
to see such an operation because they worry about how it 
would affect Azerbaijan.  Imanov also noted that many Iranian 
Azeris are buying houses in Azerbaijan proper -- as many as 
50,000 families total.  Why they are doing this is unknown. 
Novella Jafaroglu noted that her organization has worked with 
500 ethnic Azeri students from Iran, to bring evolutionary 
change by teaching democratic values.  She also said that her 
organization has contact with pro-democracy Iranian Azeris in 
Iran. 
 
¶11. (C) Imam Haji Ilgar Ibrahimoglu said that he didn't like 
the use of the term "Islamofascism" by some Americans and 
noted with displeasure that twenty American states had 
established "A Day Against Islamofascism."  Ibrahimoglu said 
that this kind of rhetoric, plus events in Iraq and at 
Guantanamo, had affected Iranian public opinion.  Liberal 
under former President Khatami, Iran had now turned in a 
radical direction because of this kind of behavior by the 
West.  Ibrahimoglu said that he has been fighting for 
democracy, that in fact he was the only one of the civil 
society activists who had been detained, and that there are 
no organizations in Azerbaijan trying to advance 
Iranian-style Islamic extremism. 
 
¶12. (C) Leyla Yunus noted that her organization has spent six 
years working on the issue of Islamic extremism and that both 
Iran and Saudi Arabia have spent considerable amounts of 
money in Azerbaijan.  During the recent controversy over the 
cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed, there were two large 
rallies in Baku.  Where did the people come from, she asked 
rhetorically.  Who organized this?  Islamic extremism is 
being built up in the Sunni north by Saudi Arabia and in the 
Shia south by Iran.  Yunus said that her organization has 
compiled a report on this topic.  A/S Fried expressed 
interest in seeing the report. 
 
------------------- 
WHAT THE POLLS SHOW 
------------------- 
 
¶13. (C) Rasim Musaybayov said that his colleagues had made 
some good points but that there is more to the story. 
Azerbaijan is not Uzbekistan, he said.  While the elections 
were 100 per cent controlled by the GOAJ, they were not 100 
per cent fraudulent.  Regarding N-K, Musaybayov said that his 
organization's polls show that many still believe a peaceful 
solution is possible.  Polls also show the United States in 
third place as a "friend of Azerbaijan" -- behind Turkey and 
Russia -- but the United States has never made the list of 
"enemies of Azerbajan".  Interestingly, Iran makes both the 
list o "friends" and the list of "enemies" -- which 
Musabayov notes as reflecting Iran's intense activity in 
Azerbaijan.  Saadat Benanyarly parenthetically noted that new 
polls of N-K refugees show increasing radicalization 
following the failure of Rambouillet. 
 
¶14. (C) Musaybayov also noted that many of the officials who 
talk privately about "managed democracy" still end up sending 
their children to school in Western countries, not Russia. 
Despite some dissatisfaction with the West, support for the 
"Islamic model" has not grown.  The underlying trends are 
favorable, and a majority is behind democracy as the only 
path to development.  Novella Jafaroglu agreed that this is 
true but that the public has not seen democracy yet.  Leyla 
Yunus agreed, saying that the trend is not towards the 
development of democracy in Azerbaijan, but rather towards 
increasing lack of respect for rule of law on the part of the 
GOAJ.  Saida Gojamanly noted that the large number of 
official Russian visits to Azerbaijan has given the public 
the impression that Azerbaijan is "between" the West and 
Russia, not a part of the West. 
 
------------------ 
A/S FRIED RESPONDS 
------------------ 
 
¶15. (C) A/S Fried thanked the civil society leaders for 
airing their views.  On Iran, Fried stressed that the United 
States is pursuing a diplomatic solution, and that a 
diplomatic solution can work because Iranian society does not 
 
BAKU 00000433  004 OF 004 
 
 
appear to want to be isolated.  The sensitivity the Iranian 
regime has shown to the question of Iran being referred to 
the UN Security Council, said Fried, suggests that they 
really may be worried.  The United States is not interested 
in military operations but is interested in reaching out to 
the Iranian people in a positive way.  It is perfectly 
legitimate, Fried added, for Azerbaijan to be concerned about 
Iran -- and in his opinion, Iran is a much bigger security 
threat to Azerbaijan than Armenia is.  The United States 
wants Azerbaijan to feel secure.  Fried noted that he does 
not use the term "Islamofascism" but that he does use the 
term "Islamism", and that all religions are capable of 
generating anti-democratic ideologies. 
 
¶16. (C) Fried noted that the group had discussed several 
major issues but had not touched on oil revenue management. 
He said the issue is an important one, closely related to the 
issue of corruption, and that he hoped civil society 
organizations would engage the issue.  On political reform, 
Fried said that Azerbaijan is not a democracy but it is not 
another Uzbekistan either, and that there is a difference 
between the two.  The United States must balance support for 
reforms that do occur against criticism of antidemocratic 
actions that also take place, and concluded by thanking the 
group again for a frank and constructive dialogue. 
 
¶17. (U) A/S Fried has cleared this cable. 
HARNISH