VZCZCXRO3248
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHAK #1010/01 0601215
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 011215Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3604
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0585
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001010 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USDOC FOR 4212/ITA/MAC/CPD/CRUSNAK 
DOE FOR CHARLES WASHINGTON 
EUR ALSO FOR MATT BRYZA AND STEVE MANN 
EXIM FOR MARGARET KOSTIC 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2016 
TAGS: EPET ENRG EWWT SENV TU IZ RU IR TX
SUBJECT: TURKEY,S MINISTER CALLS TCP DRIVING FORCE FOR 
EAST-WEST CORRIDOR 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 544 
     ¶B. ANKARA 413 
     ¶C. 05 ANKARA 7656 
     ¶D. ASHGABAT 108 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROSS WILSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D) 
 
 ¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: GOT Energy Minister Guler appealed February 
27 to Ambassador for USG support on the Trans-Caspian 
Pipeline fQ natural gas from Turkmenistan and Samsun-Ceyhan 
Bosphorus bypass oil pipeline.  He welcomed cooperation with 
the U.S. on approaching Turkmenistan to advance TCP, as an 
alternative to Russian and Iranian gas to Europe.  Following 
up on his February 7-9 visit to Washington D.C., the Minister 
also asked for ExIm Bank support for U. S. exports and 
investment, especially in the GOT,s announced nuclear power 
plant program.  End Summary. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Trans-Caspian Pipeline as "Driving Force" 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Guler stated that USG support would be critical and 
the timing was right for pushing the Turkmen president to 
move forward on relaunching the Trans-Caspian natural gas 
pipeline (TCP).  Citing pressure from the Russians to transit 
through Turkey to Europe, and for Iran and a number of 
European countries to do the same for Iranian gas, Guler said 
that there was only a window of weeks or months if TCP is to 
succeed.  He called TCP a "driving force" that could prevent 
Russian and Iranian domination of natural gas sourcing for 
Europe.  He said egress of Turkmen gas via TCP was supported 
at the highest level in the GOT. 
 
¶3.  (C) Guler noted that Turkey already had a contract with 
Turkmenistan, but both Russia and Iran were blocking transit 
of Turkmen gas to Turkey (neither are Energy Charter 
members).  The Minister also stated that we could cooperate 
to reshape the Nabucco project, by working with EU countries 
to keep Iran out of the mix, and that his personal initiative 
had so far blocked transit of Iran gas from Turkey.  He 
stressed that developing sources of Turkmen, Azeri, Iraqi, 
and Egyptian gas would be beneficial both economically and 
diversify Turkey's and Europe's gas supplies.  Guler 
enthusiastically said this would be a "win-win-win-win" 
situation and called  for clear USG support. 
 
¶4.  (C) Noting that the USG and GOT were closely aligned on 
supporting realization of a southern east-west energy 
corridor, Ambassador outlined USG views on next steps for 
advancing TCP potential.  He said the USG wanted to closely 
coordinate with the GOT on approaching Turkmenistan. EUR DAS 
Matt Bryza may be available to visit Turkey the week of March 
13 to consult in advance of a stop in Ashgabat to see 
President Niazov; Guler welcomed this.  Ambassador said it 
may be possible jointly to approach the Turkmen; Guler said 
he would consider it.  Ambassador also said we are working 
toward TDA feasibility studies of TCP lines from Turkmenistan 
and Kazakhstan.  Ambassador said Washington is prepared to 
explore interest among potential U.S. investors, but Turkey 
should take the lead in forming a consortium, perhaps led by 
Ahmet Calik and Calik Enerji.  Noting that Azerbaijan was 
focused on development of its own gas resources, Ambassador 
stressed that gaining its cooperation with appropriate IGA 
and commercial arrangements would also be critical, and we 
should think how best to engage Baku. 
 
¶5.  (C) Turning to Turkey's own work, Ambassador emphasized 
the importance of completing the South Caucasus Pipeline by 
the end of 2006 as a key step in demonstrating the commercial 
feasibility of a broader East-West energy corridor.  Keeping 
Turkish-Greek discussions and pipeline construction on track 
would also be important.  He warned that Turkey,s 
discussions with Russia about increased purchases of gas and 
expanding Blue Stream could send negative signals to the 
market about TCP prospects. 
 
¶6.  (C) Responding that Blue Stream could also serve as a 
source for Israel, the Minister acknowledged the problem, and 
emphasized the sensitivity and sense of urgency on energy 
supply diversification.  He said that he suffered personally 
when a confluence of recent events had highlighted Turkey,s 
energy supply vulnerability.  Guler lamented that many 
 
ANKARA 00001010  002 OF 002 
 
 
agencies in the U.S. did not perceive how important TCP was. 
As Ambassador departed the Minister's office, Guler confided 
privately that Blue Stream is a problem and that he does not 
want to increase Turkey's already high energy dependence on 
Russia.  It seemed clear that he is also under great pressure 
to increase Turkey's overall energy supplies as quickly as 
possible. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Samsun-Ceyhan Still the Chosen Bypass 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Minister Guler said the GOT's second priority was 
realizing the Samsun-Ceyhan Bosphorus bypass oil pipeline. 
(Note: Ahmet Calik has been anointed the champion for this 
long supported project, for which the GOT has so far not been 
effective in attracting broader support.  End Note).  The 
Minister said that this too was a project that was in both 
our countries' interest.  Guler said the GOT was committed to 
developing Ceyhan as an oil-gas hub, not just for Turkey, but 
for the region, which would facilitate oil/gas transfer to 
third countries.  Thanking the USG for its critical support 
for BTC, he hoped that the USG could show comparable support 
to push Samsun-Ceyhan.  He noted prospecting work being 
sourced out by Chevron and others in Turkish Black Sea water. 
 Commercial deposits there could improve the commercial 
viability of a Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline. 
 
---------------- 
Nuclear and ExIm 
---------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) The Energy Minister said he had appreciated his tour 
of Lake Anna Nuclear Plant, noting that he was closely 
following President Bush,s energy plan, especially with 
respect to incentives for investment.  Guler said that Turkey 
would need $120 billion in energy investment through 2020, of 
which $100 billion will go for electricity.  He was 
enthusiastic about his meeting with the ExIm Chairman and he 
was hopeful that ExIm could make attractive offers in export 
financing to entice U.S. investors to participate, either in 
nuclear or other power projects. 
 
-------------------- 
Feting BTC First Oil 
-------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) Responding to Ambassador's question on whether BOTAS 
would indeed finish BTC by the target of May 27, Minster 
Guler insisted that it was on track.  Moreover, he claimed 
that the delays in Turkey were caused by scope and timing 
changes by BP, and BP would cover the consequent cost 
overruns.  (BP has separately told us that ) in the 
interests of getting the project complete ) it acquiesced on 
this battle.  BP also said that the heavily negotiated 
Treasury guarantee for cost over-runs was not politically 
actionable.)  Guler reriterated Turkey's interest in very 
senior-level USG participation at first Ceyhan tanker 
ceremony, targeted for the June 15-20 timeframe. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Chevron and its SE Turkey Permit 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (C) Ambassador urged action on Chevron's application to 
carry out  seismic work in the Silopi/Sirnak region of SE 
Turkey this spring.  Guler said he supported Chevron,s 
access and had raised the issue with the Jandarma and Defense 
Minister, and intended to raise it with the National Security 
Council.  Noting that it was not a pre-condition, Guler 
nevertheless observed that Chevron has been unable to choose 
between Burgos-Alexandropolos and Samsun-Ceyhan. 
 
¶11.  (C) Comment: Guler got and appreciated the message that 
we are serious about TCP and he clearly welcomes high level 
¶U. S. engagement.  If EUR DAS Bryza is able to come here, we 
can advance our TCP agenda and consult on strategy and 
tactics with Turkmenistan and other regional players. 
 
WILSON