This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ALMATY 000821 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN (MUDGE); DRL/PHD (KUCHTA-HELBLING) 
 
E.O. 190356: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION, AMBASSADOR DISCUSS SARSENBAIULY CASE 
 
REF: ALMATY 795 
ALMATY 733 
ALMATY 576 
ALMATY 651 (NOTAL) 
ALMATY 692 (NOTAL) 
ALMATY 717 (NOTAL) 
 
¶1.   (SBU) Summary: In a March 2 meeting,  opposition 
leaders Oraz Zhandosov and Tulegan Zhakayev told Ambassador 
that, while they could accept that the ten people arrested 
thus far in the Sarsenbaiuly murder case (reftels) had been 
involved in the crime, they did not believe that Senate 
Administration Chief Yerzhan Utembayev had masterminded the 
murder.  The two leaders sought the Ambassador's assurance 
that, from the USG's point of view, the investigation had 
not been "wrapped up," and that the FBI remained open to 
alternative hypotheses.  Zhandosov and Zhakayev briefed the 
Ambassador on the legal status of opposition leaders 
sentenced to jail for their role in an "unsanctioned rally" 
in Almaty on February 26, telling him that both the size 
and the passion of the crowd had taken them by surprise. 
Speaking of the President's May 1 Address to the Nation, 
the two opposition leaders voiced concern that Nazarbayev 
had listed "further democratization" as only his fifth 
priority.  End Summary. 
 
Opposition Still Skeptical 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Ambassador met with "For a Just Kazakhstan" 
leaders Oraz Zhandosov and Tulegan Zhakayev on March 2, two 
days after both had been fined by an Almaty court for their 
role in organizing an "unsanctioned" February 26 
Sarsenbaiuly memorial/rally. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Zhandosov told the Ambassador that, while he could 
accept the idea that the ten men arrested so far in the 
Sarsenbaiuly case had somehow been involved in the crime, 
he still did not believe the Internal Affairs Minister's 
"official version" that Utembayev had been the crime's 
mastermind.  Not only did Utembayev lack a motive, 
Zhandosov said, but also he didn't have the "personal 
characteristics" to order a murder.  The men cast doubt on 
the reliability --  and even on the existence -- of 
Utembayev's alleged confession. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Speaking of their May 1 call for the creation of a 
State Commission to investigate the murder, Zhandosov told 
Ambassador that he feared that, after identifying Utembayev 
as the mastermind of the crime, the GOK had essentially 
closed its investigation.  The Ambassador assured the men 
that the investigation was still ongoing, and that the FBI 
was still engaged with the GOK, either to verify the 
current hypothesis or "to find another."  The Ambassador 
told the men that, while the GOK had conducted a "very 
professional" investigation so far, there was still work to 
be done.  The motive the investigators had advanced for 
Utembayev's actions was logical, but not beyond doubt. 
Zhandosov concluded by summarizing his opinion:  the 
investigators, he said, needed to discover "additional 
layers" in the murder plot. 
 
"The Biggest Demonstration in 20 Years" 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The men briefed Ambassador on the aftermath of the 
February 26 memorial for  Sarsenbaiuly in front of the 
Academy of Sciences.   The gathering turned into a 
spontaneous march and subsequent rally on the Republican 
Square in response to what appeared to a deliberate attempt 
by officials to disrupt the event by playing deafening 
music.  Zhandosov and Zhakayev admitted that they had been 
surprised by the size and the passion of the gathered 
crowd.  Unlike the Sarsenbaiuly funeral in early February, 
this gathering had had a clear political dimension.    The 
crowd's decision to move to Republic Square rather than 
being cowed by heavy handed attempts to drown out the event 
was also significant.  Although the police attempted to 
block the crowd's access to Republican Square, they did not 
use force.  Once on the Republican Square, Zhandosov 
explained, various political leaders, led by Communist 
Party chief Serikbolsyn Abdildin, had taken advantage of 
circumstances to make fiery anti-government remarks. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Eleven opposition leaders were subsequently 
charged with having organized an illegal rally.  On 
February 28, an Almaty court sentenced six (Bulat Abilov, 
Tolen Tokhtasynov, Asylbek Kozhakhmetov, Amirzhan Kosanov, 
Marzhan Aspandiyarova, and Petr Svoik) to jail terms 
ranging from 5 to 15 days, and fined five others 
(Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, Gulzhan Tergaliyeva, Zauresh 
Battalova, Zhandosov, and Zhakayev) from 30-50,000 tenge 
($230 to $382) apiece. 
 
Reflecting on Nazarbayev's Speech 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Zhandosov and Zhakayev told the Ambassador that, 
in their opinion, the fact that Nazarbayev had listed 
"further democratization" as only his fifth priority in his 
May 1 Address to the Nation was significant.  They 
suggested that not even the pro-government press had 
expected that there would be so little discussion of 
political reform, and such a hard line taken on democracy. 
 
 
ORDWAY