VZCZCXRO6288
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #0714/01 0720703
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 130703Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9509
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000714 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: MELES WILLING TO RE-LEGALIZE OPPOSITION 
CUD 
 
 
Classified By: Charge Janet Wilgus for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  PM Meles says he no longer sees any reason 
why the CUD, whose leaders remain in jail, cannot re-register 
as a legal party.  Party leaders at liberty are trying to 
overcome both internal differences and obscure legal 
obstacles to reconstitute Ethiopia's largest opposition 
political organization.  Some of them are simultaneously 
struggling to meet legal requirements for taking over the 
government of Addis Ababa.  The two issues are linked, since 
many elected City Council members remain reluctant to govern 
unless they can do so as the CUD.  The City Council's 
organizing committee has so far persuaded 60 council 
members-elect to formally register with the National 
Electoral Board -- still 9 short of quorum.  The committee 
claims that members-elect continue to face threats and 
intimidation not from the government, but from hard-line 
opponents of the GOE, probably with support from the 
Diaspora.  City Council leaders are seeking a meeting with PM 
Meles' to remove legal obstacles to reforming the CUD; donor 
country diplomats will try to facilitate a meeting and 
solutions.  EU Commissioner Louis Michel is in direct contact 
with Meles and CUD leaders in and out of jail.  While the 
Commission has until recently focused almost exclusively on 
freeing jailed CUD leaders, pressure from EU member states 
and Secretary Rice have reportedly persuaded Michel to 
support CUD participation in City Council and other efforts 
to strengthen democratic institutions and reduce tensions. 
End Summary. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Meles Gives Ground on Legalizing CUD 
------------------------------------ 
 
2 (C) In a meeting with Charge Huddleston March 3, Prime 
Minister Meles said that he no longer saw any reason why the 
National Electoral Board (NEB) could not register the 
Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) as a legal political 
party.  The PM said that he had discussed the matter with 
Kemal Bedri, the president of the NEB, who had confirmed this 
view.  There were two ways in which CUD supporters could 
pursue this matter, Meles said: 1) reconstitute the merger of 
parties that the NEB had rejected in the fall of 2005; or 2) 
registering a new party of the same name "from scratch" based 
on the submission of the necessary 1,500 signatures.  The PM 
remarked that he found the second to be the better option, 
since the component parties of the CUD were under criminal 
indictment and would likely be convicted and banned by the 
courts eventually.  He nonetheless maintained that either 
option appeared legal for the moment. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Initial Approach on Merger Runs into Roadblocks 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶3. (C) During the week of March 6, CUD leaders, led by City 
Council Organizing Committee chair Ayele Chamiso, submitted a 
package documents to the NEB in an effort to register the 
merger of the CUDP according to option 1 above.  Ayele told a 
group of Western ambassadors and Pol/Econ Counselor March 8 
that the NEB had promised to reply formally within a few 
days, but had informally indicated to the applicants that 
there submission lacked official party seals and letterhead. 
Ayele reminded diplomats that the whereabouts of party seals 
and other official documents were unknown since of security 
forces' closure of party offices and seizure of their 
contents in the wake of November unrest.  When asked about 
option two of collecting signatures for a new party 
registration, Ayele expressed concerns about losing rights to 
the property of component parties when that property is 
eventually released by the judicial system.  Pol/Econ 
Counselor urged the group to remain flexible about how to 
register the party and suggested that property issues could 
be resolved separately at a later date.  In a private 
conversation after the meeting, Ayele said he preferred the 
option of a fresh registration over a merger, but had not yet 
convinced others in his group that this was the way to go. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
City Council to Appeal for Help from Meles 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (C) Ayele and the organizing committee asked diplomats for 
assistance in removing GOE roadblocks to the CUD's 
re-establishment; progress in this area would facilitate 
achieving official quorum for taking over Addis Ababa, they 
added.  Specifically, the group asked that donor governments 
(including the USG) seek the PM's agreement to: 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000714  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
-- Reopen CUD and component party offices and return key 
documents and seals; 
-- Extend the deadline for achieving quorum on City Council 
another week beyond March 10; 
-- Accept a lower number as quorum, such as 55, rather than 
the current 69, since no more than 107 council members elect 
were in Ethiopia and at liberty; 
-- Release 14 council members-elect who had been arrested 
since November but not charged;  (Two had recently been 
freed.) 
-- Meet face to face with the City Council organizing 
committee to resolve institutional obstacles to taking power 
in Addis. 
 
¶5. (C) EU Amb. Tim Clarke replied that the group's requests 
were more than reasonable.  He suggested that Ayele write a 
letter to the Prime Minister conveying the requests, to which 
diplomats could then offer their support.  Ayele agreed to do 
so.  Others agreed to advocate with Meles. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Hard-line Pressure Delays City Council Quorum 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Ayele told diplomats that his committee had so far 
persuaded 60 council members-elect to formally register with 
the NEB.  Others who had earlier signed a petition agreeing 
to take office were holding back.  Some had apparently 
changed their minds, but new individuals might also come 
forward.  According to Ayele, petition signatories had 
received threatening phone calls and other pressure to 
abandon their commitment to take office.  Ayele did not say 
specifically where the calls came from, but acknowledged that 
Diaspora activists and other opposition hard-liners were 
probably responsible.  Ayele reiterated that regaining access 
to CUD offices as well as re-registering the party would be a 
huge boost to the effort of his organizing committee. 
Pol/Econ Counselor replied that although diplomats were fully 
prepared to support his committee's requests to Meles, the 
group should not simply wait for more help from the GOE. 
Instead, it should continue persuading its own members-elect 
to register at the NEB.  The group's success in collecting 70 
signatures had likely been a key factor in convincing the PM 
that there was a critical mass of responsible CUD leaders 
with which to work, he added.  Ayele and the group agreed to 
continue their efforts to achieve quorum while they 
simultaneously sought a more conducive environment through 
the Prime Minister. 
 
------------------------------------ 
EU Diplomacy Contentious and Intense 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶7. (C) Following the March 8 meeting with City Council 
representatives, Austrian Amb. Brigitte Oppinger-Walchsofer 
(strictly protect) told Pol/Econ Counselor that EU member 
states had struggled with the Commission to redirect the 
latter's intense diplomatic efforts on Ethiopia's internal 
political crisis.  EU Commissioner Louis Michel and local 
Amb. Tim Clarke had both been working with imprisoned leader 
Berhanu Nega against the initiative to take over the City 
Council, she said.  After a strong push from local EU heads 
of mission as well as a phone call with Secretary Rice, 
however, Michel had reluctantly agreed to support the City 
Council Organizing Committee's efforts.  Michel had been 
making phone calls to key CUD leaders in recent days, and had 
even talked by phone with Berhanu Nega in prison, as well as 
with PM Meles.  The EU had released $150 million in frozen 
aid to Ethiopia following Meles' agreement to provide access 
to the CUD prisoners for Michel in late February, 
Oppinger-Walchsofer said, but was still holding over $300 
million in coveted assistance for transportation projects. 
The Austrian Ambassador was pleased that Michel had appeared 
to accept member state views, but remained wary of what 
messages the Commission might be sending in private. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
Comment:  Legalization of CUD Would Mark Major Step Forward 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶8. (C) While technical obstacles remain to the 
re-establishment of the CUD, Ethiopia's most popular 
opposition movement, PM Meles' agreement in principle is a 
positive and surprising sea change from his early positions. 
A legal CUD would dramatically improve the image of 
Ethiopia's democratic institutions in the eyes of the public 
and international donors, and would help cool simmering 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000714  003 OF 003 
 
 
popular discontent in Addis Ababa.  The emergence of 
moderate, pragmatic CUD leaders in both Parliament and among 
City Council-members elect may well be a factor in Meles' 
change of heart, as well as donor pressure and the dearth of 
other viable options for running the nation's capital.  Post 
will work with EU missions and others to facilitate solutions 
to remaining legal barriers to re-registration of the CUD 
through the Prime Minister, urging him to make good on his 
commitment to "go the extra mile" in support of the City 
Council organizing committee.  At the same time, we will push 
the committee itself to show that it has the political will 
and capacity to succeed even in the current environment. 
Continued Department and USEU efforts to keep EU Commissioner 
Michel rowing in the same direction would also be helpful. 
HUDDLESTON