VZCZCXRO7278
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHAB #0332/01 0891543
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 301543Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1141
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 1322
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 0290

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000332 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
KINSHASA PASS TO BRAZZAVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2016 
TAGS: PGOV ASEC IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: PEACE IS IN THE AIR, FOR THE MOMENT 
 
 
Classified By: POL/ECON Jim Wojtasiewicz, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary.  Peace is in the air.  Prime Minister Banny 
has an impressive list of accomplishments, and political 
leaders seem to have set their minds on elections.  Still, 
there is a daunting list of tasks yet to be completed, 
including issuing national identification cards and 
registering voters, disarmament, and dismantling the 
militias.  Holding an election, in and of itself, will not 
necessarily heal this country's deep wounds even if it is 
relatively free and fair.  As long as the current political 
and ethnic tensions continue, this country will remain 
divided in reality even if it is reunified on the map.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) As the first quarter of 2006 comes to an end, there 
has been significant progress in Cote d'Ivoire's peace 
process but much remains to be done. 
 
¶3. (C) Prime Minister Banny has succeeded in establishing a 
good working relationship with President Gbagbo, based on a 
political marriage of convenience.  Gbagbo wants to win this 
presidential election, and Banny wants to win the next one. 
Senior government officials tell us that Banny makes a point 
of showing respect for Gbagbo as head of state, and this 
translates into respect by the ministers for Banny as prime 
minister. 
 
¶4. (C) Banny has an impressive list of accomplishments to his 
credit.  He persuaded Gbagbo to accept a cabinet with a 
strong opposition presence, with rebel New Forces (FN) leader 
Soro as number two in the government and Banny himself 
keeping both the finance minister and communications minister 
portfolios.  He brought the three principal opposition 
leaders together with Gbagbo for a summit meeting in 
Yamoussoukro, where he persuaded the four leaders to agree on 
the way forward on many key issues, in particular breaking 
the deadlock over the leadership of the Independent Electoral 
Commission (CEI).  He traveled to the rebel capital of Bouake 
and persuaded Soro to return to Abidjan and begin 
participating in cabinet meetings.  He persuaded his 
government to adopt the International Working Group (IWG) 
road map for the peace process as its own.  He brought about 
the resumption of school examinations in the North.  Direct 
talks are planned to resume soon between the chiefs of staff 
of the FN and government armed forces.  President Gbagbo has 
even given his chief of staff, General Mangou, a green light 
to discuss creating a combined joint staff, though many of 
Gbagbo's followers oppose this.  Banny appears poised to 
conclude a new agreement with the World Bank and IMF to clear 
Cote d'Ivoire's arrears with the Bank and resume lending by 
the international financial institutions. 
 
¶5. (C) The Ivoirian political players seem to have set their 
minds on elections.  The opposition Democratic Party of Cote 
d'Ivoire (PDCI) held a big nomination rally for their 
candidate, former President Bedie.  The opposition Rally of 
Republicans (RDR), the party of former Prime Minister 
Ouattara who is also a probable candidate, underwent an 
internal restructuring to broaden its leadership, and 
Ouattara made a well-publicized pre-campaign swing through 
the North, his home region.  Indeed, Gbagbo confidant and 
PDCI turncoat Laurent Fologo also was able to travel to the 
North to bury his brother, thought not with as much fanfare 
as he wanted.  We have even seen a few "I Love Gbagbo" 
T-shirts in Abidjan.  Peace is clearly in the air. 
 
¶6. (C) Still, the list of tasks yet to be completed is 
daunting, and the government is only now starting to address 
the really thorny issues that trouble this country.  There 
are now only seven months left before presidential elections 
are supposed to be held in October.  Former UN High 
representative for Elections Antonio Monteiro estimated that 
six months would be needed to complete the process of issuing 
national identification cards and registering voters, and 
this could be a very optimistic estimate.  It is good that 
the leaders agreed at the Yamoussoukro summit to do these two 
things simultaneously, but this process still has not 
started.  Since Cote d'Ivoire law requires a three month 
period for examining the voter registration lists after they 
are completed, it looks like it is already too late to have 
the elections on schedule.   October is not a deadline 
engraved in stone -- the country can survive the passing of 
October 31 without elections as long as substantial 
preparations have been made by then, and a firm date has been 
set in the not too distant future. 
 
¶7. (C) Other than plans for the two chiefs of staff to  start 
talking soon, there has been no sign of movement toward 
 
ABIDJAN 00000332  002 OF 002 
 
 
Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR). 
Clearing the arrears with the World Bank would be an 
important step forward, opening the way for the World Bank's 
promised $80 million contribution toward the costs of DDR. 
However, one of the most important obstacles for DDR, and one 
of the thorniest isues of the day, is identification.  FN 
leader Soro made clear to Deputy Assistant Secretary 
Thomas-Greenfield at their March 16 meeting that the FN will 
not finally lay down their arms until they and other 
disenfranchised Ivoirians receive documentation of their 
citizenship.  President Gbagbo, for his part, reportedly said 
at the March 29 cabinet meeting that he thinks the 
identification process should be done after the upcoming 
presidential elections, and Mrs. Gbagbo, in her capacity as 
the Secretary General of the CNRD (National Congress of 
Resistance for Democracy), the recently formed coalition of 
pro-Gbagbo political formations, told reporters the same day 
that there can be no identification before disarmament. 
 
¶8. (C) Another FN precondition for beginning to disarm has 
been dismantling of the pro-Gbagbo militias.  Indeed, the IWG 
roadmap also calls for DDR and dismantlement of the militias 
to begin simultaneously.  The militias have not been heard 
from much lately, but they are still there and at least some 
of them are armed.  There has been no mention of beginning to 
dismantle them. 
 
¶9. (C) Comment.  In fact, a major unanswered question is how 
much peace, love, and understanding Gbagbo's followers can 
take.  They have long lived by confrontation and 
intimidation.  It is important to bear in mind that holding 
an election, in and of itself, will not necessarily heal this 
country's deep wounds even if it is relatively free and fair. 
 It would take a major change in this country's mindset for 
both winner and losers to graciously accept the results. 
Another important thing to bear in mind is the enormous gap 
between Cote d'Ivoire's political elite and its people. 
Political leaders live in a world far removed from even their 
party faithful, much less the population at large.  Perhaps 
the biggest manifestation of this gap is the fact that some 
of the poorest people, cocoa farmers, are still being taxed 
at a rate of 50 percent to keep the corrupt political 
machinery running.  The field of likely front-runners in the 
election is lackluster to say the least.  None of them have 
much appeal beyond their loyal followers.  Meanwhile, 
ordinary people still identify themselves much more by region 
and ethnicity than by political orientation.  As long as the 
current political and ethnic tensions continue, this country 
will remain divided in reality even if it is reunified on the 
map.  End Comment. 
 
 
Hooks