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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 11 TOKYO 000820 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST 
DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS 
OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY 
ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02/15/06 
 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, post-Koizumi 
race, Yasukuni Shrine 
 
(2) Will major US dailies' criticism become impediment to Foreign 
Minister Aso's candidacy for LDP presidential race? 
 
(3) Both Abe, Aso say Class-A war criminals "not criminals under 
domestic law" in response to questions from Minshuto (Democratic 
Party of Japan) 
 
(4) Abe: No one was judged guilty for crimes against humanity 
 
(5) Confusion reigns over administrative reform promotion 
legislation; Efforts to upgrade Defense Agency to ministry 
status, revise Imperial Household Law have failed; Moves to 
oppose specifics of bill seen at Kasumigaseki; Koizumi 
administration losing power base 
 
(6) Fate of ongoing talks on USFJ realignment unpredictable; Lack 
of progress and local coordination deadlocked 
 
(7) Japan caught in the crossfire between US and Iran over Iran's 
resumption of uranium enrichment 
 
(8) Energy diplomacy: Government facing policy dilemma due to 
nuclear development, history and territory issues 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, post-Koizumi 
race, Yasukuni Shrine 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
February 14, 2006 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage. Parentheses denote the results of a 
survey conducted in January.) 
 
Q: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet? 
 
Yes                      53.5       (56.1) 
No                       36.2       (35.8) 
Other answers (O/A)       2.9        (2.4) 
No answer (N/A)           7.5        (5.8) 
 
Q: Which political party do you support? 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)                 39.3       (40.9) 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto)    13.3       (12.6) 
New Komeito (NK)                                3.1        (3.5) 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP)                  1.4        (2.3) 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto)       1.5        (1.6) 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto)      0.1        (0.2) 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon)         0.1        (---) 
Other political parties                         ---        (0.1) 
None                                           40.2       (38.1) 
N/A                                             0.9        (0.9) 
 
Q: Prime Minister Koizumi has clarified that he would step down 
when his term as LDP president expires in September this year. 
 
TOKYO 00000820  002 OF 011 
 
 
Pick only one from among the following nine persons if there is 
anyone who you think is appropriate as the next prime minister. 
 
Taro Aso                5.6 
Shinzo Abe             42.9 
Koichi Kato             2.9 
Yuriko Koike            1.9 
Heizo Takenaka          2.2 
Sadakazu Tanigaki       2.1 
Fukushiro Nukaga        --- 
Yasuo Fukuda            9.6 
Taku Yamasaki           0.4 
Others, none, N/A      32.4 
 
Q: Prime Minister Koizumi has annually visited Yasukuni Shrine. 
Would you like the next prime minister to visit the shrine? 
 
Yes                           28.3 
Yes to a certain degree       21.9 
No to a certain degree        19.2 
No                            24.0 
N/A                            6.6 
 
Q: Prime Minister Koizumi has pushed for his market-oriented 
restructuring initiatives for a small government in order to 
minimize the government's public protection and services while 
lessening the public burden. Do you think the next prime minister 
should take over this policy course as is, or do you think the 
next prime minister should revise and take it over, or do you 
otherwise think there is no need to take it over? 
 
Take it over as is            25.6 
Revise and take it over       48.8 
No need to take it over       18.2 
N/A                            7.5 
 
Polling methodology 
Date of survey: Feb. 11-12. 
Subjects of survey: 3,000 persons chosen from among all eligible 
voters throughout the country (at 250 locations on a stratified 
two-stage random sampling basis). 
Method of implementation: Door-to-door visits for face-to-face 
interviews. 
Number of valid respondents: 1,784 persons (59.5%). 
Breakdown of respondents: Male-48%, female-52%. 
 
(2) Will major US dailies' criticism become impediment to Foreign 
Minister Aso's candidacy for LDP presidential race? 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
February 15, 2006 
 
The New York Times and other US dailies have blasted Foreign 
Minister Taro Aso for his remarks about China. If he loses his 
reputation as a politician in the United States, it might have an 
adverse impact on his candidacy to become the next Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP) president in the upcoming election to 
choose a successor to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. 
 
The New York Times carried on Feb. 13 an editorial headlined 
"Aggressive Japanese foreign minister," in which the daily wrote: 
"Mr. Aso's sense of diplomacy is as odd as his sense of history. 
He has been neither honest nor wise in his remarks." The Boston 
 
TOKYO 00000820  003 OF 011 
 
 
Globe criticized Aso in an article on Feb. 8, "Right-wingers like 
Mr. Aso have been indulging in undiplomatic words and actions." 
 
Aso, who is known as a straight-talker, has been criticized often 
by China since assuming his current post for his remarks on 
visits to Yasukuni Shrine by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. In 
order to win the LDP presidential race, which will pick a 
successor to Koizumi, Aso, belonging to a small faction in the 
LDP, has no choice but to wait for Koizumi to resign. To that 
end, he has made it clear he would take over Koizumi's foreign 
policy of being unyielding to China's pressure. He has kept a 
tough stance against China, paying no attention to its criticism. 
 
However, support of the United States, Japan's ally, is 
indispensable for a successor to Koizumi. Having communication 
channels to key US government officials is a selling point of 
Aso. If he gains a bad reputation in the US and there is 
questioning of his qualifications to assume the prime minister 
post, it might be detrimental to him, forcing him to drop out of 
the presidential race. 
 
At a press conference yesterday, Aso stated, "Since it is free to 
criticize someone, I do not make any comment." Aso's aides are 
desperate to put the matter to rest, with one aide saying, "He 
has no intention of stirring up controversy with Chinese 
matters." However, the adverse effects of his "inflammatory 
remarks" remain unknown. 
 
Post-Koizumi contenders state Yasukuni issue will affect foreign 
policy 
 
At a House of Representatives Budget Committee session yesterday, 
candidate for the post of prime minister after Koizumi Chief 
Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, Foreign Minister Taro Aso, and 
Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki strongly reacted to a question 
about whether Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine have derailed 
Japan's Asia diplomacy. 
 
Katsuya Okada, a former president of the main opposition party 
Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan), posed a question: "If the 
next prime minister visits Yasukuni Shrine, chances are that the 
present situation will continue. How would you conduct Asia 
diplomacy?" 
 
Abe responded: "India has created a boom in business circles 
because Prime Minister Koizumi visited the country last year. 
Paying attention to China alone is meaningless from a strategic 
point of view." 
 
Aso categorically said: "Summit meetings between the prime 
minister and the Chinese leader and between the prime minister 
and the South Korean president have been suspended, but many good 
collaborations have been carried out in the economic and music 
industry areas." 
 
Okada grilled Abe and Aso on their views of history, Abe avoided 
making a clear answer, responding, "(Evaluation) should be left 
to historians." 
 
At the ongoing Diet session, all eyes are now being focused on 
post-Koizumi contenders' replies. But there have no scenes yet in 
which the possible successors were able to display their 
individual characteristics. 
 
TOKYO 00000820  004 OF 011 
 
 
 
(3) Both Abe, Aso say Class-A war criminals "not criminals under 
domestic law" in response to questions from Minshuto (Democratic 
Party of Japan) 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Full) 
February 15, 2006 
 
Was the war one of self-defense? Who were responsible for the 
war? These questions were raised in the Lower House Budget 
Committee meeting yesterday. The questioner was Katsuya Okada, 
former president of Minshuto and the answerers were Chief Cabinet 
Secretary Shinzo Abe and Foreign Minister Taro Aso, both viewed 
 
SIPDIS 
as post-Koizumi candidates. Taking the floor, Okada posed a 
question about the validity of the International Military 
Tribunal for the Far East (Tokyo War Crimes Trials) that found 
the so-called "Class-A war criminals" to be "war criminals." But 
Aso and Abe took the same position that Class-A war criminals 
under Japanese domestic law were not identified as "criminals." 
 
Okada queried Aso about WWII: "There is an argument that the war 
was unavoidable for survival and self-defense, but what do you 
think?" Referring to the so-called Murayama statement released in 
1995 and Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's speech in April 2005, 
Aso rejected that argument, saying: "I've never stated it was a 
war for self-defense." 
 
But once the validity of Tokyo Trials and Class-A war criminals 
were questioned,, debate heated up. Abe and Aso remarked, "Class- 
A war-criminals were not necessarily brought to justice." Okada 
argued against them: "Tokyo Trials' verdict was put above 
domestic law or is a higher concept." The difference in the basic 
perception of history was thus revealed as Abe and Aso cast 
doubts on the validity of Tokyo Trials in light of international 
law. 
 
On Class-A war criminals, Aso pointed out that former Foreign 
Minister Mamoru Shigemitsu had been a Class-A war criminal but 
after the war he was awarded the first class medal. Abe as well 
explained that Class-A war criminals and other criminals had been 
released in line with a Diet resolution after negotiations with 
the Allies and receiving overwhelming public support. But he 
failed to convince Okada. 
 
Okada also insisted, "Japan accepted the decisions by the Tokyo 
Trials. So, it is only natural that Japan is bound by them." 
Giving a sign in responding to Okada, Abe said: "Judging from 
your way of speaking, Mr. Okada, you appear to be siding with GHQ 
or something like that." 
 
(4) Abe: No one was judged guilty for crimes against humanity 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Full) 
February 15, 2006 
 
At a Lower House Budget Committee session yesterday, Chief 
Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, Foreign Minister Taro Aso and 
Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, who are all viewed as post- 
Koizumi candidates, faced "a litmus test" given by Katsuya Okada, 
former president of the main opposition Minshuto (Democratic 
Party of Japan). But the questions fired at Tanigaki were scarce. 
 
The following are main points of the replies given by Foreign 
 
TOKYO 00000820  005 OF 011 
 
 
Minister Aso and Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe: 
 
 
Was the war one of self-defense? 
 
Aso: "Even if we decide today that the war was one of self- 
defense, it's quite difficult to prove that. It's an undeniable 
fact that the war in part was a war of aggression. This will be 
judged by history down the road." 
 
Abe: "History is found in the sequence of events. What parts of 
the war do we deal with and how? The government should not play 
the role of judge over history." 
 
Tokyo Trials 
 
Aso: "The defendants were found guilty for committing crimes 
against peace. Article 11 of the San Francisco Peace Treaty 
accepted the decisions by the Tokyo Tribunal. That's all that I 
can say." 
 
Abe: "The Nazis were found guilty for crimes against humanity, 
but in the Tokyo War Crimes Trials, no one was decided guilty 
(for similar crimes). I'm not in a position to raise objections 
(on behalf of the government) to the trials, but the trials were 
no more and no less than that." 
 
Were Class-A criminals "war criminals"? 
 
Aso: "The international military tribunal used the phrase 'war 
criminals' to identify those Japanese who were tried. Those 
Japanese would not be subject to criminal prosecution at least by 
Japan's domestic law." 
 
Abe: "The Tokyo War Crimes Trials were conducted by the Allies. 
Seven defendants were sentenced to death. Our country never tried 
those individuals on its own. If you ask they were criminals in 
Japan? I would say no, they were not." 
 
(5) Confusion reigns over administrative reform promotion 
legislation; Efforts to upgrade Defense Agency to ministry 
status, revise Imperial Household Law have failed; Moves to 
oppose specifics of bill seen at Kasumigaseki; Koizumi 
administration losing power base 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Excerpts) 
February 15, 2006 
 
One target of an administrative reform promotion bill is to 
achieve a net reduction in the fixed number of national 
government employees by more than 5% by fiscal 2010. Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP) Policy Research Council Chairman Hidenao 
Nakagawa and Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe have taken the lead for 
the submission of the legislation, calling it a bill that will 
bring about a small government advocated by Prime Minister 
Koizumi. 
 
However, there seems to be something wrong about the fate of the 
bill. At an informal cabinet meeting on Feb. 10, Justice Minister 
Sugiura objected to a proposal for a cutback in the number of 
prison officers, noting, "It is impossible to reduce such 
personnel." It was shortly after Prime Minister Koizumi cautioned 
all cabinet ministers to act in unity in dealing with the issue 
 
TOKYO 00000820  006 OF 011 
 
 
in order to address a call from the public to continue reform 
efforts. In the end, it was decided that prison officers would 
not be included in the list of public servants subject to 
reductions to be incorporated in the bill. There are 15 key areas 
subject to reductions of the total personnel cost. The prison 
administration facility-related area is one of those 15 areas. A 
large portion of public servants in this field are involved in 
duties of prison officers. The fixed number of officials for this 
area is approximately 17,000. Some have pointed out that if those 
involved in prison officers' duties are exempt from the cutback 
policy, only about 2,000 officials will become subject to the 
proposed reduction, as a senior official at the Secretariat of 
the Cabinet Office noted. 
 
Principles will be gradually chipped away, if opposition to even 
one proposal is accepted 
 
"Principles will be gradually chipped away, if opposition to even 
one proposal is accepted" has been the cardinal rule since the 
administrative reform policy of Prime Minister Nakasone (early 
1980s). But now this rule has been broken so easily. 
 
It had never been the case up until last year. Looking back on 
the cabinet meeting last year, one senior Cabinet Secretariat 
official noted, "We were crestfallen since there was unexpectedly 
no major resistance from government agencies at the stage of the 
cabinet decision." The Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy 
(CEFP) last November adopted basic guidelines, and key guidelines 
for administrative reform were adopted at a cabinet meeting late 
last December, based on the basic guidelines. No major opposition 
came from Kasumigaseki, Japan's bureaucratic center, either. 
 
Prime Minister Koizumi won a landslide victory in last year's 
general election, which asked voters whether or not they 
supported postal privatization. Koizumi followed through on the 
trinity of reforms and the integration or abolition of public 
financial institutions. 
 
What is the background of contained objection being unleashed? A 
senior official at the administrative reform promotion office 
said, "Amid the Koizumi administration losing steam, the lack of 
coordination of views since last year has now been exposed." 
 
Government offices had been discontent with the Koizumi 
administration, pressed to transfer various services under their 
jurisdiction to the private sector or cut the volume of services 
for which they were responsible. However, they had stayed on the 
sidelines because of the overwhelming victory in the general 
election by Koizumi, as a senior official of the administrative 
office put it. However, since the beginning of this year, the 
Koizumi administration have been frequently on the offensive due 
to the Livedoor incident and the US beef import issue. 
 
Unity of cabinet ministers holds the key 
 
The government will compile a plan to allocate targets for a new 
reduction in the fixed number of national government employees. 
This process will take place concurrently with deliberations on 
the administrative reform promotion bill. A senior Cabinet 
Secretariat official said, "To what extent cabinet ministers can 
 
SIPDIS 
fall in step by the submission of the bill will hold the key." 
 
Objections have also been raised on other key areas as well. A 
 
TOKYO 00000820  007 OF 011 
 
 
New Komeito source is concerned: "An effort to upgrade the 
Defense Agency to a ministry status has failed; a move to revise 
the Imperial Household Law has been dampened; an effort to 
present a national referendum bill to revise the Constitution has 
also fallen through. If this situation continues, (the Koizumi 
administration) will find itself up in the air after passage of 
the budget bill." An aide to the prime minister also said, "The 
Diet session will become calm with no controversial issues on the 
table. Once the budget bill secures Diet approval, an LDP 
presidential race mode will prevail." 
 
Asked about the possibility of the administrative reform 
promotion bill being watered down, Prime Minister Koizumi 
yesterday at the Prime Minister's Office reacted in a bad mood, 
"People always criticize that bills are watered down, so if this 
bill is watered-down, resistance will suddenly drop. You will see 
from the result." 
 
(6) Fate of ongoing talks on USFJ realignment unpredictable; Lack 
of progress and local coordination deadlocked 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Excerpts) 
February 14, 2006 
 
By Masahiro Tsuruoka 
 
The Japanese and US governments have engaged in talks on the 
realignment of US forces in Japan (USFJ), aiming to reach a final 
agreement before the end of March. But the fate of the talks is 
becoming increasingly unpredictable. One reason is a lack of 
progress in the recent senior-working level talks that continued 
until Feb. 11. Another is slow coordination with base-hosting 
municipalities, such as Nago City in Okinawa Prefecture. 
 
US Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Lawless: "We have more 
issues than expected left to be resolved. Speed is important." 
 
Defense Agency (JDA) Director-General Nukaga: "It is widely known 
that both of us will reach an agreement on the realignment plans 
by the end of March. If we fail, that would have an adverse 
effect on Japan-US relations. We need to resolve various issues 
within February." 
 
Shared by Lawless and Nukaga in their meeting on Feb. 10 was a 
sense of crisis that it was becoming increasingly difficult to 
meet the end-of-March deadline for a final agreement. 
 
A sense of disappointment at the results of the recent senior 
working-level talks on the USFJ realignment prevails in the 
government. "We had thought that the talks would produce a 
certain degree of results, which would give a boost to local 
coordination. But given that the Japan-US talks themselves have 
stalled, it seems impossible a final report in March can be 
readied," a responsible official pointed out. 
 
Many in the government predict that after ironing out 
differences, Japan and the US will reach agreement but that it 
would not come before the end of March. The reason is that it is 
not an easy task to bridge the gap between Japan, which seeks 
burden reduction, and the US, which emphasizes the maintenance of 
deterrent capabilities. 
 
In addition to these factors, the fate of new legislation that is 
 
TOKYO 00000820  008 OF 011 
 
 
necessary for Japan to pay a portion of the costs of transferring 
some 6,000 Marines from Okinawa to Guam is unpredictable, too. 
The JDA sees a growing call for enactment during the current Diet 
session while Prime Minister is in office as president of the 
Liberal Democratic Party, but coordination with base-hosting 
municipalities has been stalled. 
 
In the recent mayoral election in Nago City - the planned 
relocation site for the US Futenma Air Station - in Okinawa 
Prefecture, Yoshikazu Shimabukuro, backed by the ruling parties, 
was elected as mayor. Nukaga was quick to indicate his intention 
to establish a consultative council for liaison between the 
central and local governments. But Shimabukuro has taken the 
stand of not meeting with central government officials unless 
revision is first made to the Henoko Cape plan the Japanese and 
US governments agreed on. 
 
In Iwakuni City housing the US Marine Corps' Iwakuni Air Station 
in Yamaguchi Prefecture, a referendum on the planned transfer of 
a carrier-borne aircraft unit from the Atsugi Naval Air Station 
to the Iwakuni base is slated for March 12. Other base-hosting 
municipalities are keeping a close watch on Nago City. Prime 
Minister Koizumi pointed out at a Lower House Budget Committee 
meeting on Feb. 8 that the situation was severe, saying: "(Local 
residents) are unwilling to give approval." 
 
Delay in DFAA's coordination due to recent revelation of its 
involved-bid-rigging scandal 
 
The Defense Facilities Administration Agency (DFAA)-involved bid- 
rigging scandal has also clouded the talks on the USFG 
realignment. The government and the ruling coalition once aimed 
to submit to the current Diet session a bill to upgrade the JDA 
to ministry status and enact it into law but this plan is likely 
to be postponed due to the scandal. 
 
"The bid-rigging scandal and the upgrading of the JDA are two 
different matters, but there seems to be some impact of the 
scandal on the upgrading issue," Koizumi told reporters 
yesterday, admitting that the scandal is adversely affecting the 
plan for the submission of the bill. 
 
Last December, Koizumi indicated his positive attitude about 
upgrading the JDA to a ministry, noting: "It's strange to keep it 
in the status of being an agency." But the government's position 
is that "the submission of the bill to upgrade the JDA to 
ministry status would be discussed if the ruling parties 
concurred on upgrading the agency to ministry status," according 
to Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe. The submission of the bill is 
premised on accord between the LDP and the New Komeito. But this 
premise is being eroded due to the recent bid-rigging scandal. 
New Komeito Secretary General Tetsuzo Fuyushiba remarked on Feb. 
12: "It's difficult to discuss the issue in a cool-headed manner 
amid the raging flames of criticism due to the scandal." 
 
Foreign Minister Aso expressed concern that the bid-rigging 
scandal "would further delay DFAA's response (to the USFJ 
realignment plans)." Administrative Vice Defense Minister 
Takemasa Moriya as well was forced to mention the USFJ 
realignment talks and an investigation into the bid-rigging 
scandal as his agency's immediate tasks to address. 
 
(7) Japan caught in the crossfire between US and Iran over Iran's 
 
TOKYO 00000820  009 OF 011 
 
 
resumption of uranium enrichment 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Slightly abridged) 
February 15, 2006 
 
Following the revelation of Iran's resumption uranium enrichment, 
the Japanese government decided yesterday to urge Tehran to 
suspend its nuclear program. Crude oil from Iran has played a key 
role in Japan's energy strategy. Given this, Japan cannot easily 
echo calls from the US and other countries for slapping economic 
sanctions on the nation. But Japan will unavoidably be pressed to 
make a clear-cut response in the face of North Korea's nuclear 
threat. The government now finds itself caught in the crossfire 
between Iran as an important oil supplier and the US as its ally. 
 
In reference to Iran's enrichment resumption, Chief Cabinet 
Secretary Shinzo Abe indicated a willingness to play a mediating 
 
SIPDIS 
role between the US and Iran, saying in a press briefing 
yesterday: 
 
"Because Japan has maintained friendly ties with Iran, we will 
try to persuade its government to respond to our call so that it 
will not find itself isolated in the international community. It 
is only Japan that can address Western countries' concerns to 
Iran." 
 
The Foreign Ministry plans to invite Iranian Foreign Minister 
Motaki to Japan beginning Feb. 27, and Foreign Minister Taro Aso 
and other officials will call on Iran to dismantle its nuclear 
development program. However, Motaki told Aso in a telephone 
conversation on Jan. 18: "Our program is not intended to develop 
nuclear fuel but is for research and development." As seen from 
this, the possibility is slim that Iran will positively respond 
to Japan's request. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) 
decided early this month to refer Iran to the United Nations 
Security Council (UNSC). It is certain that in UNSC 
deliberations, the US and other countries will become more vocal 
in their call for economic sanctions against Iran. 
 
The US is nervous about the Iranian nuclear issue, reflecting its 
stance of placing emphasis on ensuring the security of Israel, a 
country with which Iran is hostile. But Japan has to be cautious 
about imposing economic sanctions on Iran. 
 
Japan imports 15% of its crude oil from Iran. Japan once held 75% 
of all concession rights for the Azadegan oil field -- the 
largest field in the Middle East in terms of estimated reserves. 
 
Given this, the following view is dominant in the government, 
according to a senior official of the Ministry of Economy, Trade, 
and Industry: "Should the international community impose economic 
sanctions, Iran will certainly launch an oil embargo in 
retaliation." A senior official of the Foreign Ministry said: 
"Such a measure will deal an unfathomably serious blow to Japan, 
although European countries will not be significantly affected." 
Some observers predict that if Japan works with the US, Iran may 
pull Japan's exploitation rights in the Azadegan field and 
transfer them to China, which has been eager to deepen ties with 
Iran in order to secure natural resources. 
 
When Iranian students and others took over the US Embassy in 
Teheran in 1979, the US called on Western countries to ban the 
import of oil from Iran. On that occasion, some Japanese firms 
 
TOKYO 00000820  010 OF 011 
 
 
purchased large quantities of crude oil from Iran at high prices, 
evoking a fierce reaction from the US government and Congress. 
 
Regarding Iran's resumption of uranium enrichment, Prime Minister 
Junichiro Koizumi only said, "It is still unknown whether it is 
true or not, isn't it?" In the event that the US calls on Japan 
to join in economic sanctions against Iran, Tokyo will find it 
difficult to refuse. A government source was also overheard 
saying: "North Korea has been developing nuclear weapons and 
constitutes a threat to Japan's national security. Given this 
situation, a misstep by Japan could create uncertainty over 
relations with the US and the nation's security." 
 
In a House of Representatives Budget Committee meeting yesterday, 
Foreign Minister Aso indicated that the ministry would make its 
utmost efforts to bring a "soft landing" to the Iranian nuclear 
issue, but this scenario is still nowhere in sight. 
 
(8) Energy diplomacy: Government facing policy dilemma due to 
nuclear development, history and territory issues 
 
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Excerpts) 
February 14, 2006 
 
The government is facing policy dilemma in pursuing energy 
diplomacy. Amid growing arguments calling for economic sanctions 
against Iran over its resumption of uranium enrichment 
activities, there has appeared concern over a possible setback to 
Japan's joint project with that nation to develop the Azadegan 
oil field, expected to be launched in 2008. Talks with China on 
the development of gas fields in the East China Sea and 
negotiations with Russia over the East Siberian oil pipeline plan 
are also encountering complications. Such issues as Iran's 
nuclear development program, differences in the view of wartime 
history and a territorial issue are apparently hampering Japan's 
energy diplomacy. 
 
Iranian foreign minister to visit Japan on Feb. 27 
 
Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki is scheduled to visit Japan for 
three days starting on Feb. 27. Foreign Minister Taro Aso intends 
to urge him to suspend that nation's nuclear development program, 
when he meets with him. The Azadegan oil field, an undeveloped 
oil field located in the southwestern part of Iran, has one of 
the largest oil reserves in the Middle East with the estimated 
amount of deposits at 5 to 26 billion barrels. The Iranian side 
is expected to shoulder 25% of the total project costs, and 75% 
by the Japanese side. For Japan, Iran was the third largest crude 
oil supplier, following Saudi Arabia and the United Arab 
Emirates, in 2005. Once the Azadegan oil field is developed on a 
full scale, imports of crude oil independently developed by Japan 
will likely to increase 50 % . However, in an effort to prevent 
Iran from becoming a nuclear state, the US is geared up to work 
on concerned countries to impose economic sanctions on it. In 
view of the relationship of alliance with the US, the possibility 
of Japan finding it difficult to positively press ahead with the 
project cannot be ruled out. 
 
Yasukuni issue affects development of gas fields 
 
In Japan-China comprehensive vice-ministerial dialogue held on 
Feb. 10 and 11, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo 
conveyed his government's proposal for mutual visits by the 
 
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leaders of the two countries to Vice Foreign Minister Yachi. 
Yachi reiterated the Japanese government's proposal for jointly 
developing gas fields in the East China Sea with each country 
developing its own side with the median line in between. Vice 
Minister Dai made a negative response to the proposal. 
Differences in the views of wartime history between the two 
countries are casting a dark shadow on the gas field development 
issue as well. 
 
Suffering setback in talks with Russia as well 
 
Japan is suffering a setback also in talks with Russia on the 
construction of an oil pipeline from East Siberia. The Japanese 
proposal for constructing a pipeline as far as the Pacific Ocean 
side all at once was rejected at the bilateral summit last 
November. The two-step formula was instead adopted, as Russia 
proposed. The prospect is now strong that a China-bound branch 
line will be built first to meet definite demand from China. 
 
The deadlocked Northern Territories issue is behind the pipeline 
building talks. Japan intends to pursue talks, based on the 1993 
Tokyo Declaration, which noted: "A peace treaty is to be signed, 
after settling the attribution of the four Northern Territories." 
Russia constrained the Japanese proposal with President Putin 
noting, "Acknowledging the present state of each other's country, 
the two countries have begun to search for settlement measures 
that are acceptable for both sides." Bargaining continues. 
 
SCHIEFFER