This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 TEL AVIV 000542 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG IS SETTLEMENTS ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: GOI ACTION ON AMONA PRODUCES BACKLASH AGAINST 
SETTLERS, HIGHLIGHTS DIVISIONS IN SETTLER MOVEMENT 
 
REF: A. FBIS GMP20060202613001 
     ¶B. TEL AVIV 000389 
     ¶C. TEL AVIV 000481 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b 
) and (d) 
 
This is a joint Embassy Tel Aviv/Consulate General Jerusalem 
cable. 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  Post contacts from the GOI and the private 
sector assert that the February 1 demolitions in Amona 
outpost "send strong signals to the settlers" that Acting 
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is not going to give in to 
lawbreakers.  The demolitions in Amona are now being hailed 
as a new era in the enforcement of the law against settlers. 
The result is that since the demolition of the nine permanent 
houses at the outpost, and the clashes that ensued between 
settlers and Israeli security personnel, the Israeli media 
has overwhelmingly denounced the settlers for breaking the 
law.  Opinion polls show the Israeli public placing blame on 
the settlers, not the security services, for the violence 
that took place.  However, the Israeli human rights 
organization B'tselem fears that excessive police force used 
at Amona may lead to increased settler attacks against 
Palestinians.  In addition, the events of recent weeks raise 
questions about what is happening internally to the settler 
movement.  The settler movement may be splitting into three 
groups:  those who appear willing to withdraw from the 
territories; the radical right-wing, comprised mostly of 
violent settler youth; and a "lost" leadership that is out of 
touch with reality and incapable of making decisions on what 
to do in the face of future evacuations.  The impact on 
Olmert's standing has yet to be determined.  End summary. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Settlers Are Losing Public Support 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) In the aftermath of the demolition of nine permanent 
houses in Amona outpost near Ofra settlement on February 1, 
Israeli pundits across the political spectrum have sharply 
criticized the violence that took place there.  While many -- 
including the human rights (and anti-settlement) organization 
B'tselem -- have said that the police used excessive force in 
dealing with the settlers, most editorials nevertheless have 
overwhelmingly denounced the settlers themselves for breaking 
the law (ref A).  Writers from Ha'aretz, the Jerusalem Post, 
Ma'ariv, Yediot Aharonot, and even the right-wing Hatzofe, 
used terms such as anarchists, lawbreakers, religious 
ideologues, and followers of the State of Judaea (vice the 
State of Israel), to describe the rioting that the youth 
settlers undertook to try to prevent the demolitions. 
 
-- Ha'aretz's Amos Har'el wrote that "the right-wing victims 
are not innocent.  The thousands who gathered on the hill did 
not come to protest but to clash.  Not a handful, but 
hundreds of them, exercised extreme violence." 
 
-- An editorial in the Jerusalem Post asserted that "the use 
of violence of any sort against security forces is 
unacceptable...  When security forces arrive, protestors must 
go willingly or at least not violently resist arrest or 
removals." 
 
-- An editorial in Hatzofe wrote that "having failed in their 
war on crime, the police use extreme force against Zionist 
religious youth.  It is a shame that our state has come to 
this.  However, this does not mean that we support the 
law-breaking by Land of Israel loyalists." 
 
----------------------------------- 
Opinion Polls Turn Against Settlers 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Opinion polls taken during the two days after the 
demolitions have shown that the settler movement is also 
losing the support of the Israeli public.  In a Teleseqer 
poll carried out on February 1 and published in Ma'ariv, a 
majority of 54.3 percent blamed the settlers for the 
violence.  When asked how they felt about settlers who used 
force to resist the evacuation, 42.1 percent said they felt 
solidarity with the settlers but not the resistance, 22.2 
percent opposed the settlers generally, and 18.2 percent 
"opposed (the settlers) to the point of abhorrence."  Over 49 
percent said that the police used a reasonable amount of 
force, and 10.4 percent said that the police used too little 
force.  In a Dahaf Institute poll published in Yediot 
Aharonot on February 3 entitled "Nobody Sheds a Tear," 57 
percent of those polled blamed the violence on the settlers, 
16 percent blamed the army and the police, 10 percent blamed 
both sides, and 4 percent blamed the government.  Some 58 
percent of those polled said the outpost should have been 
evacuated. 
 
--------------------------------- 
The Beginning of the Rule of Law? 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Talia Sasson's March 2005 report on illegal outposts 
in the West Bank clearly showed a double standard in the 
enforcement of the rule of law with settlers in the West Bank 
as opposed to Israelis residing Green Line Israel. 
Ha'aretz's Akiva Eldar throughout the past year has often 
written about the distinct difference in what happens in 
Israel, and what happens "on the other side of the fence." 
Israeli media now, however, have called the Amona demolitions 
the beginning of a new era for the rule of law.  As one 
editorial said, "The evacuation of Amona is an important 
point of reference.  After the state -- due to enthusiastic 
cooperation, in most governments -- spent two generations 
bowing its head helplessly and blindly before the people of 
the wild west, who forced the entire Israeli society to obey 
their violent rules of the game, the settlers have finally 
woken up to a new reality.  This is the first time that the 
State of Israel -- via the government, the judicial system, 
the army and the police -- is implementing the law in the 
occupied territories in the West Bank."  Significantly, 
National Infrastructure Minister Roni Bar-On was quoted as 
saying that the government's "era of restraint" in dealing 
with settler protestors is over:  "We restrained ourselves in 
Gush Qatif.  We restrained ourselves in Hebron, in Yitzhar, 
and in outposts for a long time, even if people there 
physically injured security forces there.  That's finished. 
The era of restraint has come to an end.  From now on, this 
will be a nation of law, which enforces the law." 
 
------------------------------- 
GOI Officials Voice New Resolve 
------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (S) Embassy has privately heard these sentiments from 
contacts throughout the GOI and the private sector, as well. 
On January 18, Dror Etkes, settlement watch coordinator for 
Peace Now, called Amona "the beginning of the second 
disengagement," implying that the GOI would evacuate settlers 
from other illegal outposts throughout the West Bank.  Major 
General Yosef Mishlev told the Ambassador in a January 24 
meeting that Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has been very 
clear on his expectations with respect to the outposts, and 
that last month he "began a policy of enforcing the law in 
the West Bank" (ref B).  Boaz Karni (please protect), 
treasurer of the Economic Cooperation Foundation (ECF), told 
Embassy econoff on February 1 that one of the main opponents 
of negotiating with the settlers in Amona was Lieutenant 
General Dan Halutz, IDF chief of staff.  According to Karni, 
Halutz wanted to carry out the demolitions because he felt 
that ruling "this country meant not giving in to 
lawbreakers."  Brigadier General (ret.) Baruch Spiegel, 
Ministry of Defense advisor, told the Ambassador on February 
2 that Amona is the first major West Bank outpost with 
permanent housing to be targeted, and that this sends strong 
signals to the settlers about Olmert's plans to evacuate more 
outposts, even if it takes time. 
 
¶6.  (C) Olmert has told us he vows to remove unauthorized 
outposts -- starting with the Hebron market -- and fully 
"abide by the commitments Sharon made about building in 
settlements" (ref C).  Olmert's decision to move on Amona 
nonetheless has an internal political rationale that goes 
beyond international commitments.  His policy decision, which 
falls shy of addressing the broader, and much more sensitive 
issue of removing state-sanctioned settlements in the 
occupied territories, allows him significant room to form 
future coalitions across the political spectrum from Meretz 
to the ultra-orthodox the day after the elections.  What 
remains of the right -- the Likud, the National Religious 
Party, and the National Union -- must remain in the periphery 
or make, in the words of Shimon Peres, "an unconvincing tack 
back toward the political center."  After Amona, Netanyahu 
has been forced into choosing between the unpopular position 
of challenging the rule of law and the security 
establishment, or remaining quiet.  The impact on Olmert's 
political standing remains unclear.  Shalom Tourgeman, Ariel 
Sharon's (and now Olmert's) foreign policy advisor, told the 
DCM on February 6, however, that he believes Likud is 
readying a package of elements to attack Olmert, including 
the demolitions and Hamas' victory in the Palestinian 
parliamentary elections, which could affect Olmert 
negatively.  He remarked that as of right now, however, the 
Prime Minister's Bureau could not determine if the Amona 
demolitions would positively or negatively affect Olmert's 
ratings in the polls. 
 
¶7.  (C)  Nevertheless, GOI officials have already called for 
further dismantlements of outposts, despite the fact that the 
wounds of Amona are still fresh.  Internal Security Minister 
Gideon Ezra was quoted on February 3 saying that three 
outposts will be dismantled near Nablus.  Spiegel told the 
Ambassador that Arussi and Skelly farms would go before the 
elections on March 28, after the GOI follows the necessary 
legal procedures to evacuate the outposts.  In another 
attempt to show who is in control in the West Bank, the IDF 
withdrew its protection at Yitzhar settlement, near Nablus, 
after settlers physically attacked IDF soldiers and vehicles 
on two separate occasions on February 2. 
 
----------------------- 
Movement Fragmentation? 
----------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) The evacuations of the past weeks in Amona and in the 
Hebron market raise questions about what is happening 
internally to the settler movement as a whole.  Yair 
Hirschfeld, executive director of ECF, told Embassy econoff 
on February 1 that the settler movement is now dividing into 
three groups.  He characterized the first group as comprising 
settlers, such as Shaul Goldstein (more comments in para 11) 
and Otniel Schneller, who are adapting to the change in 
Israeli thinking, and understand that they "have to get out 
of a lot of the territories."  Press reports over the past 
few months have indicated that many of the settlers who are 
willing to leave are located to the east of the separation 
barrier, and come from the settlements of Ma'ale Ephraim, 
Ofarim, Bet Arye, and Tene Omarim.  In September 2005, for 
example, the Bayt Achad (One Home) Movement polled settlers 
outside of the separation barrier and found that 
approximately 20,000 of 100,000 would be willing to evacuate 
their settlements for compensation. 
 
¶9.  (C) Hirschfeld said that the second group is the 
radicalized right-wing, who are mainly, but not exclusively, 
the youth settlers disenchanted from the state after Gaza 
Disengagement.  According to Karni, these settlers feel that 
due to what they see as the lack of significant display of 
trauma on their behalf during Gaza Disengagement, they are 
willing to go even further with violence because they know 
they have already lost public support, and have nothing to 
lose.  Spiegel characterized the radical right as "kids who 
didn't listen to their leaders" and will not be easy to 
control in the future.  In the words of Rabbi Avi Gisser, a 
rabbi of Ofra settlement (mother settlement to Amona 
outpost), "The humiliated settler leadership, with the scars 
of Gush Katif, can no longer stop the teenagers, who have 
lost the last vestiges of confidence in the state authorities 
and their conduct."  Shimon Riklin, head of the young settler 
group Dor Ha Hemshech, complained to ConGen poloff on 
February 5 that "this government (GOI) wants war.  The 
Israeli police acted like Nazis at Amona."  He opined that 
Olmert wanted to show that was a "big leader" by using 
excessive force against the protestors.  He added that the 
settlers were not threats like Hamas, but rather part of the 
solution and that if the GOI continued to evacuate 
settlements in this manner, they would "destroy all of 
Israel." 
 
¶10.  (C) The third group, according to Hirschfeld, is in the 
middle:  the leaders from the YESHA council, including 
Zambish Hever, Bentzi Lieberman, Adi Mintz, and Pinchas 
Wallerstein, who was run out of Amona.  Hirschfeld explained 
that this group is "lost," and that the members "don't know 
where to go and are treading in illusion."  He reminded 
econoff that Mintz published a brochure in January calling 
for Israel to keep 60 percent of the West Bank and give 40 
percent to the Palestinians.  According to Hirschfeld, "the 
reality is not there and they can't make a decision."  Yariv 
Oppenheimer, secretary general of Peace Now, expressed 
similar sentiments to econoff on February 2.  He said that 
Wallerstein is concerned because he knows that ultimately the 
public understands "we have to leave."  According to 
Oppenheimer, Wallerstein has not tried to control the youth 
settlers because he does not know what the best option is. 
He explained that if the settlers are "good," and Gaza 
Disengagement is too easy, they lose the public because 
Israelis will ask for more evacuations.  On the other hand, 
if the settlers are "bad," they lose public support because 
they hurt Israeli soldiers, and the public will call for more 
evacuations. 
 
¶11.  (C) Shaul Goldstein, mayor of the Gush Etzion Regional 
Council and a leading figure in the YESHA Council, opined to 
ConGen poloff on February 5 that both the protestors and 
Israeli security forces approached Amona with the wrong 
attitude, which led to excessive violence.  However, he 
stated that the Israeli police were brutal and crossed the 
line in law enforcement.  Jessica Montell, executive director 
of B'tselem, the Israeli Information Center for Human Rights 
in the Occupied Territories, told ConGen poloff on February 5 
that B'tselem has requested that the Israeli Ministry of 
Justice launch an investigation into excessive police forced 
used against protestors at Amona.  She opined, after viewing 
videotapes of the incident, that the Israeli police used 
excessive force even against people who were fleeing the 
scene of the protests.  She questioned why the Israeli police 
charged in with batons and horses, without using teargas, and 
noted that it is hard to believe the police did not show the 
same amount of restraint as in Gush Katif.  She fears that 
there will be an escalation of Israeli settler attacks 
against the Palestinians because of their anger at the GOI 
over Amona.  She also said that the IDF needs to do more to 
protect the Palestinians.  Goldstein noted that the YESHA 
Council has a negative perception among the younger settlers 
as being too moderate, especially in light of the evacuation 
from Gush Katif and Amona.  He added that the GOI's policy of 
unilateralism, leaving Israeli settlers on the wrong side of 
the separation barrier, and the upcoming Israeli elections 
will place increased pressure on the Israeli settler 
population.  He feared that the YESHA Council will not be 
able to control the future actions of settlers, who, in his 
opinion, may resort to more violence as a reaction to what 
they perceive as police brutality. 
 
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