This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000455 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2026 
TAGS: PGOV ES ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: SALVADORAN PRESIDENT SACA DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT 
POLL NUMBERS 
 
Classified By: CDA Michael Butler.  Reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
¶1.  (C) During a lengthy February 23 evening meeting with 
Polcouns, one Saca cabinet member and two key presidential 
advisers recounted how stressed Saca is over the March 12 
national elections and over recent polls showing Saca and his 
ARENA party are not faring as well as they expected.  Asked 
why Saca's private pollster (a key Polcouns contact) was no 
longer returning phone calls, one adviser confided that the 
pollster is in hot water with Saca because the pollster was 
apparently padding poll numbers to paint a rosier picture for 
Saca.  When Saca started seeing poll numbers by other polling 
firms which showed Saca's mayoral candidate for San Salvador, 
as well as several other ARENA candidates, behind the FMLN 
candidates, he reportedly confronted his pollster and rebuked 
him in the strongest terms. Since then Saca and his 
operatives are looking much more carefully at other polls. 
As a matter of fact, in the course of the conversation, one 
of the presidential advisers, who is a pollster himself, 
received a call from Saca campaign manager Julio Rank.  Rank 
had heard that the adviser had just completed a private poll 
for San Salvador news daily "El Mundo," and was fishing for 
poll results. 
 
¶2.  (C) The adviser/pollster then proceeded to run down his 
own poll numbers in general terms, predicting that, if the 
elections were held today, San Salvador would likely go to 
the FMLN, though by a narrow margin. Asked to predict the 
number of diputado seats ARENA and the FMLN would win if the 
election ere held today, the adviser/pollster said that ARENA 
could win between 33 and 35 seats, and that the FMLN could 
win 27, but has a real chance to win as many as 28.  He added 
that the PCN (National Conciliation Party) is likely to win 
around 12 Assembly seats, the PDC (Christian Democratic 
Party) three or four, and the left-of center CD (Democratic 
Change Party) would win two.  Based on these numbers, he 
concluded that there is a real possibility that ARENA will be 
worse off after the elections than they are now, in terms of 
their ability to form a voting block in the National 
Assembly.  His reason for this is that a best case scenario, 
meaning ARENA with 35 diputados, PCN with 12, and PDC with 4, 
would add up to a total anti-FMLN vote of 51, or six votes 
short of the necessary 57 votes to pass constitutional 
reforms or increase the national debt.  Asked whether the CD 
could be part of an anti-FMLN Assembly coalition, the 
adviser/pollster said that the two CD candidates who will be 
elected (Hector Dada and Ruben Zamora) are "hard-liners" and 
will not deal with ARENA. 
 
¶3.  (C) All three interlocutors agreed that Saca is counting 
heavily on his Washington trip and potential "prizes" he can 
extract from Washington to give him the boost he feels he 
desperately needs.  All three also agreed that a successful 
trip and the publicity Saca derives from it, may not be 
enough to change voters minds. They predicted that ARENA will 
gain Assembly seats and mayoralties, but will ultimately lose 
the biggest prize, the ability to create a coalition in the 
Assembly to move Saca's constitutional reforms forward. 
 
¶4.  (C) Comment:  All three interlocutors have been highly 
reliable Embassy contacts.  The cabinet member is one of the 
"stars" of Saca's team and considered highly ethical.  The 
adviser/pollster is considered one of the best and most 
serious pollsters here, with a long track record.  All three 
consider themselves very good friends or Saca and loyal to 
him, but are resentful of Saca's innermost circle, composed 
of Secretary to the Presidency Elmer Charlaix and Minister of 
Governance Rene Figueroa, who, in their view, manipulate the 
president and isolate him from his friends. 
Butler