This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 000330 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM KMPI YM DOMESTIC POLITICS
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION TESTS LIMITS OF PRESIDENTIAL POWER 
 
REF: 2005 SANAA 2766 
 
Classified By: DCM Nabeel Khoury for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  Parliament is preparing for its next session 
with a highly anticipated leadership race.  Sheikh Abdullah 
al-Ahmar is widely expected to win re-election as Speaker, 
but reformers are looking to defeat President Saleh's 
candidates for the Deputy positions.  Such a rebellion could 
raise the legislature's profile and increase competition in 
the Yemeni political scene.  Hamid al-Ahmar, the Speaker's 
son, says calls for legislative independence are premature, 
but the opposition parties are serious about running a 
candidate in this year's presidential race.  It remains to be 
seen if these challenges will materialize, but many MPs and 
opposition figures are increasingly willing to test the 
limits of Saleh's power and to discuss his eventual 
replacement. END SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Parliament Steps up to the Plate... 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Parliament is set to meet for the first session of 
2006, and its first order of business will be electing new 
leadership.  In its last session, Parliament took the 
unprecedented step of overriding a presidential veto to pass 
new by-laws.  Some observers suggest that President Saleh may 
have engineered the vote himself in a comlicated attempt to 
dilute the Speaker's influence.  Nevertheless, the new 
by-laws clearly increase legislative powers, including 
election of the Speaker and the three Deputy Speakers who 
together form the Presidium. (NOTE:  The Presidium has broad 
powers in deciding which laws are debated and what demands 
are made of the executive.  END NOTE). Saadaldin Talib, 
parliamentary advisor for the National Democratic Institute 
(NDI) and former MP, said the by-laws give Parliament more 
power than at any other time in its 16-year history.  MPs of 
all parties supported the by-laws because they included a 
generous benefits package -- a legislative maneuver 
engineered by reform-minded MPs meeting under the auspices of 
NDI's MEPI-funded program. 
 
¶3. (C) All expectations are that Parliament will re-elect 
Sheikh Abdullah, leader of the opposition Islah Party, to 
another term as Speaker (reduced by the new by-laws from six 
to two years).  The ruling General People's Congress (GPC) 
has indicated that they will support al-Ahmar for another 
term, despite the fact that he represents an opposition 
party.  This was a clear signal from Saleh, who wanted to 
chasten al-Ahmar by shortening the Speaker's term, but retain 
him in his position nonetheless.  Sheikh Abdullah is thought 
to be unhappy about having to retain his post through 
competitive elections, having been chosen for his post in 
1993 with Saleh's support by unanimous consent.  Talib 
predicted that the Yemen Socialist Party (YSP) would run an 
opposition candidate if only to establish the precedent. 
With al-Ahmar undergoing medical treatment in Saudi Arabia, 
Parliament has delayed the session by at least one weak 
awaiting his return. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
...Will MPs Take a Swing at the President? 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (C) The fate of the other three members of the Presidium 
is less certain.  Most contentious is the re-election of 
Yahya al-Rai, generally regarded "President Saleh's man" on 
the Presidium.  In 2005, MPs were regularly frustrated by 
Rai's obstruction of reform legislation and corruption 
inquiries.  A vote against Rai would be considered a minor 
rebellion against presidential authority and a clear 
declaration of independence by the legislative branch.  Carlo 
Binda, head of NDI's parliamentary program, said a change in 
leadership would allow Parliament to take a more aggressive 
line on issues such as corruption and fiscal 
decentralization.  Hamid al-Ahmar, the Speaker's son and a 
leading figure in Islah, countered that the opposition is not 
yet ready for such a stand, and will in all likelihood 
re-elect Rai.  "Because of their close relationship," said 
Hamid, "my father cannot personally allow his supporters to 
oppose the President directly.  His followers and the 
President's want to fight each other, and the leaders spend 
much of their time trying to restrain them." (NOTE: The 
al-Ahmars head the powerful Hashid tribal confederation. END 
NOTE). 
 
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Opposition Considers Presidential Challenge 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) The real challenge, said Hamid, will come in the 
Presidential election and from a new generation of 
politicians.  The opposition is serious about fielding an 
opposition candidate in the 2006 presidential election, 
claimed Hamid, who has already submitted a number of 
suggestions to the opposition's Joint Meeting Party (JMP) for 
consideration.  According to Hamid, relations within the JMP 
have never been better, and there is more common ground 
between the Nasserites, the Yemeni Socialist Party, and the 
Islamist Islah party than he ever thought possible.  Dr. 
Aziz, a high-ranking member of the YSP in Sanaa, confirmed 
this assessment.  Frustration among political elites, both 
inside and outside government, is at an all-time high, said 
Hamid.  Ninety percent would like to see Saleh gone, he 
continued, but don't know who can replace him. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Ahmar Views the Future in Moderation... 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Hamid made clear that such leadership was not going to 
come for Sheikh Zindani and the extremist wing of the Islah 
party.  "Zindani a great man," said Hamid.  "One of the most 
knowledgable men in Yemen on the ways of Islam.  "I love to 
sit at his feet and listen to his sermons," said Hamid.  "But 
the time is not right for such a leader, and most members of 
Islah know this.  We need someone who has the support of both 
the Americans and the Saudis."  What we need now, said Hamid, 
is someone who can clean up corruption and help bring 
development to Yemen.  He did not offer specific names of 
candidates under consideration, but others have suggested 
that it would have to be someone with strong tribal and 
financial backing, who did not fear retribution from Saleh. 
 
-------------------------- 
...And Probes U.S. Support 
-------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Given the control that Saleh and the GPC have over the 
electoral system, the opposition has no delusions of winning 
an outright victory, explained Hamid.  Instead, he is hoping 
for a "Ukranian scenario."  If we can take 30 to 40 percent 
of the vote, said Hamid, we can then claim voter fraud and 
ask for international intervention, specifically from the 
United States.  "We know that your support for Saleh does not 
run deep," continued Hamid, "and that backing a corrupt 
regime is not in your long-term interest." 
 
¶8. (C) COMMENT:  In many ways, Parliament's plan to re-elect 
Sheikh Abdullah is business as usual in Yemen, where the 
President and the Sheikh have a long-standing power-sharing 
agreement. (Reftel) There are also considerable doubts as to 
whether Islah is truly ready to oppose Saleh, or whether the 
party is simply looking to improve its bargaining position in 
relation to the GPC when it forms the next government.  At 
the same time, tectonic plates are slowly shifting in Yemeni 
politics, with a growing willingness to challenge President 
Saleh -- if only on trivial matters.  If Parliament rejects 
Saleh's candidates for the Presidium, it could usher in a new 
era of political competition in Yemen.  This has the 
potential to spill over into the presidential election, and 
could begin the long process of determining Saleh's 
successor. END COMMENT. 
Krajeski