VZCZCXYZ0004
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #0399/01 0521725
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 211725Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5335
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5336

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000399 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: ELECTIONS REPORTING 
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV SOCI
SUBJECT: NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS REGIONAL REPORTING:  BOACO 
 
Classified By: Paul A. Trivelli.  Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  On February 10, Property Officer and LES 
Lawyer visited Boaco, the rural capital of the Department of 
Boaco, located just to the north and east of Managua, to 
discuss upcoming elections with local leaders.  While 
individuals differed on the merits of presidential and 
legislative candidates, all affirmed that democratic 
institutions in Nicaragua must be strengthened; that the 
bilateral working relationship with the United States is a 
historical given to be factored into any political outcome; 
and, that CAFTA-DR should be thoughtfully considered in terms 
of how it can benefit Boaco.  Our respondents favored a new 
host of politicians not beholden to past obligations such as 
the Arnoldo Aleman-Daniel Ortega pact, but doubt that the 
current parties enjoy flexibility to allow an accommodation. 
End Summary 
 
¶2. (SBU) Meetings included Dr. Hugo Barquero, President of 
the Boaco Organization of Vamos con Eduardo (MVE); Lic. Noel 
Ortega, President of the Association of Cattle Raisers of 
Boaco (AGB); Father Jose Moreira, Catholic Church Vicar; Dr. 
Roberto Luna, President of the local Liberal Constitutional 
Party (PLC); Dr. Armando Incer, President of the Amigos de 
Alvarado (AA); Lic. Frank Gutierrez, leader of the Herty 
Lewites 2006 group (Herty); and Carlos Gutierrez Lopez of the 
Christian Action Party/Accion Cristiana (AC).  Sandinista 
splinter group interviewees included William Cuadra Lopez and 
Freddy Colorado Gonzalez of the Sandinista Rescue Group 
(Rescate al Sandinismo); and Noelia Guerrero Acevedo of the 
Movimiento Revolucionario Sandinista (MRS).  A meeting with 
the local Boaco district Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) 
director was scheduled, but did not take place. 
 
Economy of Boaco 
---------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Boaco's economy relies on cattle, daily products, 
basic grains and coffee.  Boaco needs roads and outside 
investment to grow its economy.  Our contacts viewed CAFTA 
with interest and would like to be given an early opportunity 
to participate.  They welcomed contacts and additional 
information. 
 
Free and Fair Elections? 
------------------------ 
 
¶4. (C) When queried whether elections could be free and fair, 
respondents expressed concern about the reappearance of 
crazy mouse ("raton loco") ruses to hassle Boaco voters via 
transportation and bureaucratic snafus.  Dr. Barquero of the 
MVE stated that Sandinistas successfully used this ploy in 
the 2004 Boaco municipal elections resulting in the incumbent 
Sandinista mayor's election.  He added that non-Sandinistas 
face difficulties obtaining identity cards ("cedulas"), 
another voter manipulation tactic.  Lic. Ortega (AGB) 
reiterated the accusation, agreeing that the irregularities 
definitely cause Boaco voter roll distortions.  Dr. Luna 
(PLC) concurred that Sandinistas aim to swell the ranks of 
voters by supplying rigged birth certificates to underage 
teens who lack civic education.  In the 2004 municipal 
elections, Dr. Barquero (MVE) asserted that out of 35,000 
registered voters, 25,000 were assumed to be Liberal. 
Nevertheless, Liberals received only 7,000 votes, compared to 
the Sandinistas' approximately 8,000: enough to win the 
elections.  As a consequence, the FSLN can now quickly 
process documents for voters they favor, while they create 
obstacles for others. 
 
Leading Candidates 
------------------ 
 
¶5. (C) Although our interlocutors underscored the 
desirability of their particular candidates, most observed 
that Eduardo Montealegre has the best chance of winning votes 
in Boaco -- assuming he gets the nod from Aleman-controlled 
rural voters.  Vicar Moreira stated that sympathy for a 
Montealegre candidacy can't ensure a win, but could 
effectively siphon off strength from the non-FSLN 
competition.  On the other hand, Boaco PLC President/Assembly 
Deputy Luna generally damned with faint praise candidates 
other than former Vice President Jose Rizo amd Congressman 
Enrique Quinones, but then acknowledged the importance of a 
disciplined and united front to achieve a PLC victory in 
November.  Campaign visits by Montealegre, Alvarado and 
Lewites have generally been described as brief and 
underwhelming, unlike the vibrant street action generated by 
Aleman in years past -- another indication of how much 
credibility and charisma can overcome accusations of fraud 
and malfeasance. 
 
¶6. (C) Despite naming dissident presidential candidate 
Eduardo Montealegre as the frontrunner, all of our 
interlocutors agreed that no democratic candidate enjoys 
enough personal momentum to defeat an FSLN-backed candidate 
without joining forces with the PLC through some sort of 
arrangement.  None of the political parties has the FSLN's 
sheer organizational clout, militancy, ideological commitment 
and hierarchical obedience. 
 
Polls 
----- 
 
¶7. (C) Respondents questioned the science and reliability of 
polls in Nicaragua, suggesting that results depend on what 
answers the pollsters are trying to elicit and how the 
questions are spun.  While Boaco AA President Armando Incer 
supported the polls as relative indicators of what voters are 
thinking, cattleman Noel Ortega characterized them as a 
potential electoral manipulation technique. 
 
Movement for Nicaragua Marches 
------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (C) Dr. Hugo Barquero, President of Vamos con Eduardo, 
related that he had participated in one of the Movimiento por 
Nicaragua (MpN) marches and observed effective Boaco busing 
coordination.  Father Moreira noted that while the movement 
initially had strength in Granada and Chinandega, the impetus 
hadn't continued.  AGB's Noel Ortega claimed the marches 
represented Sandinista ideology without the broad bipartisan 
support needed for success.  AA's Dr. Armando Incer asserted 
that march leaders needed more moral authority to generate 
stronger support in Boaco. 
 
Aleman's Legacy 
--------------- 
 
¶9. (C) Terming Arnoldo Aleman the undisputed authority figure 
in Boaco, PLC President Dr. Luna explained the reasons why 
the former Nicaraguan President still commands rural voters' 
devotion: visible benefits in the form of roads, schools and 
clinics.  Aleman's campaign posture consisted of genuine and 
extraordinarily deft socializing with constituents, a 
seemingly photographic memory for inter-generational minutiae 
such as the birthday of a child or the interment of a 
grandparent, plus indefatigable gladhanding, explained Luna. 
By comparison, he said too many politicians are virtually 
invisible, self-absorbed and colorless.  For example, 
according to Vicar Moreira, Aleman successor Bolanos is a 
good, but unloved, man whose long-term projects have merit, 
yet are too complicated for the average Boacan to comprehend. 
 
 
Perceptions of the U.S. Embassy and the U.S. 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (C) Many people in Boaco have a friend or relative in the 
U.S. providing remittances that boost the local economy. 
Although the American Dream is alive and well here, visas are 
hard to come by; the consular information cards we brought 
were eagerly snapped up.  Contrasted with the Dream is the 
perception that USG officials sometimes overstep the line of 
propriety with excessive criticism of Nicaragua, according to 
Herty 2006 group leader Gutierrez.  (A constitutional law 
buff, Gutierrez expressed admiration for James Madison and 
welcomed our offer to send Public Diplomacy publications with 
the Founding Fathers and democracy U.S. style.)  Incer (AA) 
professed that while the U.S. has acceptable ideas, the 
rhetoric occasionally gets out of hand.  He reported that an 
Alvarado/Montealegre alliance would position the PLC to form 
a more robust electoral presence than the current loose 
organization.  Ortega (AGB) and Dr. Luna (PLC) quoted the 
oft-mentioned notion that Montealegre is directly or 
indirectly favored by the U.S. Embassy. 
 
Conclusion 
---------- 
 
¶11. (C) Respondents concurred on some basic premises 
concerning Nicaragua's current political landscape:  a) the 
present leadership of both the Liberal Constitutional Party 
and the Sandinista Party required new blood and a measure of 
independence from the negative caudillismo of the past; b) a 
fragile democracy needs effective election monitoring and an 
educated electorate to choose viable alternatives to 
internecine violence. 
TRIVELLI