VZCZCXRO1607
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0317/01 0401616
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 091616Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1367
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000317 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG AND AF/RSA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREF SOCI SU
SUBJECT: SUDAN: MISSERYA OFFER DINKA ABYEI ADMINISTRATION 
TO GIVE UP BORDER 
 
REF: A. KHARTOUM 00229 
     ¶B. 05 KHARTOUM 02154 
     ¶C. 05 KHARTOUM 02140 
 
Classified By: P/E Chief E. Whitaker, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Misserya tribal leaders from Muglad recently 
traveled to Abyei to offer the Ngok Dinka all Abyei 
administration positions in return for not demanding 
implementation of the Abyei Boundaries Commission (ABC) 
finding, according to UNMIS contacts.  The proposal follows 
weeks of mutual accusations between the National Congress 
Party (NCP) and Sudanese Peoples' Liberation Movement (SPLM) 
over lack of implementation of the Abyei Protocol, and comes 
a week before the Presidency will meet on the issue.  While 
the situation in Abyei is reported to be stable, 
government-backed efforts at tribal reconciliation have not 
had the local buy-in necessary to solidify that stability. 
 
¶2. (C) Appointing an administration could perhaps buy more 
time, but the border issue remains a zero-sum game in the 
eyes of both tribes and the two parties that will ultimately 
decide the issue through the Presidency.  Further raising the 
stakes, a commission must be appointed in July 2008 to 
identify residents of Abyei eligible to vote in the 
referendum that could make the ABC line an international 
boundary in 2011.  Both sides look to the United States, as 
perceived authors of the Abyei Protocol, for backing and a 
way out.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Misserya Propose Deal Amidst Accusations Over Abyei 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶2. (C) An UNMIS contact covering Abyei reported to Poloff 
that the Misserya leadership in Muglad has proposed a deal to 
Ngok Dinka Paramount Chief Emir Kuol Deng in Abyei to break 
the deadlock over the Abyei Protocol.  They proposed that the 
Ngok Dinka take all of the positions in the Abyei 
administration in return for giving up on the mid-2005 
finding of the Abyei Boundaries Commission (ABC).  A de facto 
border would likely fall just North of Abyei town for 
purposes of administration until a new agreement was forged 
on the border issue.  Emir Kuol responded favorably, the 
UNMIS officer reported, but other Ngok will be furious if 
this plan goes forward, as it disregards the &final and 
binding8 status of the ABC finding.  Comment: were it to be 
confirmed publicly, the SPLM would almost certainly reject 
the proposal through the Presidency for the same reason. End 
comment. 
 
¶3. (U) The proposal comes as the SPLM and NCP exchange 
accusations over why the expected announcement of an Abyei 
administration on January 9 did not occur.  The public spate 
began on January 14, when the Deputy Governor of South 
Kordofan (and National Islamic Front hard-liner) Issa 
Bashari, went to Abyei and declared that Abyei was part of 
South Kordofan, which would appoint the local Abyei 
administration.  In the following days, the SPLM organized a 
political rally in Abyei town protesting the speech, and Emir 
Kuol led a march to the UNMIS Field Office to present a 
letter of protest.  South Kordofan Governor Ismail Jallab 
(SPLM) traveled to Khartoum shortly thereafter to complain to 
First VP Salva Kiir that the Deputy Governor was controlling 
the situation on the ground.  When Kiir announced that Abyei 
is not part of South Kordofan and the SPLM may seek 
international arbitration (Ref A), Assistant to the President 
Nafie Ali Nafie responded immediately that the ABC report 
should be rejected as having exceeded its mandate.  The three 
member Presidency is set to meet the week of February 12 to 
review CPA implementation, and the ABC issue will be a top 
agenda item. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Abyei Stable, but Controlled from the North 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The situation in Abyei is reported to be stable by 
the UNDP Rule of Law representative there, who has good local 
contacts.  However, he reports (and the UNMIS Abyei office 
confirmed) that National Intelligence and Security Services 
(NISS) has renewed restrictions of movement imposed on the UN 
and NGOs by requiring permits for any travel north of Abyei 
town.  As this violates the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) 
between the UN and Sudan, no UN actors have requested 
permits, and there has been little monitoring or patrolling 
north of town since early January.  The UNDP rep reports that 
Abyei continues to be governed as a province of Southern 
Kordofan.  Acting Commissioner for Abyei, Ibrahim Mohamed 
Elamin, based in Muglad, and his police commander have been 
 
KHARTOUM 00000317  002 OF 002 
 
 
visiting Abyei regularly, but the administration of Abyei 
remains in flux without implementation of the Abyei Protocol 
or deployment of the Joint Integrated Units (Ref B). 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Attempts at Tribal Reconciliation Lacking 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) On January 28, the Council for International People,s 
Friendship hosted a preparatory workshop for a Peaceful 
Coexistence Conference among the Rezeigat, Dinka, and 
Misserya.  The all-day session was chaired by Ahmed Abd 
al-Rahman, along with Presidential Advisors Bona Malwal and 
Abdalla al-Massar, who is also head of the Rezeigat Massar 
(Rezeigat from Northern Darfur); it was funded by the 
Presidency.  The workshop focused on customary law, including 
blood money amounts among the tribes, IDP returns, and 
development.  The full conference is scheduled for March 14 
in Aweil in Northern Bahr El Ghazal state, with an expected 
1200 people from the three tribes.  In preparation, a group 
of Rezeigat and non-Ngok Dinka from Northern Bahr El Ghazal 
will travel to Abyei to facilitate Ngok Dinka-Misserya 
discussions. 
 
¶6. (C) More notable than the papers discussed, however, was 
the non-attendance of Rezeigat Madibu from South Darfur, who 
are actually a part of the band of Arab-African boundaries 
where tensions persist.  Invited Misserya leaders from 
Kadugli did not attend either, with prominent Misserya from 
Khartoum there in force instead.  Finally, the guest of 
honor, Ngok Paramount Chief Emir Kuol Deng, did not 
participate.  The UNMIS officer covering Abyei reported to 
Poloff that Emir Kuol had fled to Agok, South of the River 
Kiir, spreading the rumor that the NISS had summoned him to 
Khartoum, but he has since returned to Abyei town. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (C) Despite SPLM accusations that the NCP is instigating 
the Misserya to reject the ABC report and scuttle the CPA, 
Misserya ) including leaders in Abyei and from the 
opposition Umma Party in Khartoum ) need no convincing that 
the ABC is a grab of their ancestral land.  Indeed, they 
would blame the NCP along with the SPLM should the Presidency 
announce endorsement of the ABC report.  In such an event, 
though they promise war, it is not clear how or toward whom 
the Misserya might direct their aggression.  On the Ngok 
side, the offer of a fully Ngok administration means little 
if the border issue is not resolved, and Emir Kuol, who has 
traditionally been NCP, is now either playing both sides or 
feels trapped in the middle.  With the possibility that the 
ABC line will become an international border in 2011, it 
remains a zero sum game.  For these reasons, the UNMIS 
Officer in Charge in Abyei privately expressed relief that 
the Presidency has not yet demarcated the boundary in line 
with the ABC finding. 
 
¶8. (C) While the opportunity for compromise appears limited, 
the current deadlock is unsustainable as IDPs return to harsh 
conditions (Ref C) and the SPLM leaders vent their 
frustration.  Appointing an administration may buy time, 
though it will not satisfy many Ngok.  The next major step in 
the Abyei Protocol is then the appointment of the Abyei 
Referendum Commission, shortly after July 2008, which will 
determine who is an Abyei &resident8 eligible to vote in 
the 2011 referendum on whether to remain a special 
administrative area or join Bahr El Ghazal state in the 
South; the border issue is sure to influence the formation of 
this commission.  As tribal leaders on both sides see the 
Abyei Protocol and the ABC report as essentially American 
drafted documents, they look to the United States for backing 
and a way out.  End comment. 
HUME