VZCZCXRO7003
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0274/01 0371248
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 061248Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1289
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000274 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS, SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EPET PINR SU
SUBJECT:  SOUTH SUDAN:  MEETING WITH THE MINISTER OF 
REGIONAL AFFAIRS NHIAL DENG NHIAL 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  CG Juba met with Government of Southern 
Sudan (GoSS) Minister of Regional Affairs Nhial Deng Nhial 
shortly before Nhial departed for Khartoum en route to Cairo 
as head of a GoSS delegation that includes the Ministers of 
Justice and Public Service, sent to investigate the killing 
of Sudanese refugees last December 30.  Nhial commented that 
the SPLM must push the NCP harder on CPA implementation and 
play a bigger role in national politics.  He said that the 
current political dynamic in the NCP is favoring President 
Bashir over Vice President Taha, which could pose additional 
problems.  End summary. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Problems with CPA Implementation 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Nhial commented that staying in power, not the 
success of the CPA, preoccupied the National Congress Party 
(NCP).  As a result, CPA implementation has been agonizingly 
slow.  He stressed that the SPLM must push harder on 
national issues, including Darfur. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Nhial observed that the Assessment and Evaluation 
Commission must function effectively in order that the 
international community play its role in pressuring the 
northerners to meet their obligations.  He cautioned that 
this was the last chance to cement the peace.  If the CPA 
unraveled, "God only knows what will happen next." 
 
-------------------------------- 
The Balance of Power in Khartoum 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Nhial said that President Beshir's impulsiveness 
was sometimes problematic.  Beshir was also in general 
denial about Sudan's problems, inevitably trying to claim 
that the source of the country's woes was totally external 
in nature, and Sudan the victim.  Nhial said that Vice 
President Taha took a more measured view of the situation, 
but his influence in Khartoum was waning, just as Turabi's 
once-considerable influence declined.  Certain NIF 
hardliners continued to trip up CPA implementation at every 
step.  He cited Presidential Assistant and NCP Deputy 
Chairman for Political Affairs Nafie Ali Nafie as supremely 
confident.  Nhial said that as long as the National 
Petroleum Commission remained in Nafie's pocket, it would 
never work.  He listed the NCP's refusal to form and pay the 
Joint Integrated Units (JIUs), insisting the GoSS should 
continue to fund its own contingent, as another stratagem to 
undercut the CPA. 
 
----------------------------- 
The National Role of the SPLM 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Minister noted that the fate of the South would 
be determined in Khartoum, and the South could still fail 
despite internal southern unity.  Therefore, the SPLM had no 
alternative but to engage in the North.  Other traditional 
political parties were a spent force, and the SPLM was the 
only party that could act as a counterbalance on the NCP and 
other Islamist forces.  Nhial lamented the untimely loss of 
John Garang. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) While Nhial did not mention Kiir by name, the 
underlying theme was that SPLM leadership had failed to take 
a hard enough line with the NCP on CPA implementation and 
national issues.  Kiir's recent speech may indicate that he 
has heard the message from Garang's former closest followers 
and is reacting accordingly.  Nhial came off as pessimistic 
as CG Juba officials have seen him.  End comment. 
 
-------- 
Bio Data 
-------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Nhial Deng is the son of noted southern politician 
William Deng, killed by northern forces in 1968.  An avid 
reader and one of the most cerebral of senior SPLM 
officials, Deng has studied law.  He played a role in 
negotiating the Naivasha agreement and headed the SPLM's 
contingent to the Joint National Transition Team in 
Khartoum.  Deng was projected as a rival to Salva Kiir in 
2004 for the second ranking figure in the SPLM.  He was also 
odds-on favorite to serve as foreign minister in the 
Government of National Unity, and reportedly took Salva 
Kiir's nomination of Lam Akol for that position as a 
personal defeat.  He employs sophisticated reasoning and 
 
KHARTOUM 00000274  002 OF 002 
 
 
probably shares Garang's national vision for Sudan more than 
most other senior officials in the South. 
 
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