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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HALIFAX 000035 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CA
SUBJECT: NOVA SCOTIA'S TORIES GO FOR YOUTH 
 
REF: 05  HALIFAX 025 
 
HALIFAX 00000035  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (U)  SUMMARY:  Nova Scotia's Progressive Conservatives opted 
for generational change February 11, choosing a 34 year old 
member of the legislature from Cape Breton as the next Premier 
of Nova Scotia, replacing 67 year old John Hamm.  Rodney 
MacDonald is well known to us and has his predecessor's interest 
in good U.S. - Canada relations.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U)  Nova Scotia's Progressive Conservative party selected a 
new leader February 11.  Rodney Macdonald, MLA from Inverness, 
Cape Breton, beat out two rivals for the party leadership and 
will be sworn in February 24 as Premier, replacing John Hamm who 
announced last fall that he was stepping down.  Nova Scotia is 
seeing a literal generational change in leadership -- MacDonald, 
at 34, is half Hamm's age. 
 
THANKS, JOHN 
------------ 
 
¶3.  (U)  The party sent Hamm out in style February 10.  The 
Prime Minister, Foreign Affairs Minister and Fisheries Minister 
all attended the event, which included tributes from fellow 
Premiers, music by the Cape Breton master of all stringed 
instruments J.P. Cormier and a guest appearance by former 
Ambassador Paul Cellucci, who had worked with Hamm since their 
days as members of the New England Governors - Eastern Canadian 
Premiers meetings.  At the farewell event party faithful banged 
thundersticks that had "Thanks John" written on them, a video 
spoofed Hamm's conservative dress and made sometimes 
not-so-gentle fun of the provincial Liberal and NDP leaders, and 
speakers praised the Premier's dedication, perseverance and 
integrity in pursuit of balanced budgets and his "Campaign for 
Fairness" which eventually led to Nova Scotia and 
Newfoundland-Labrador receiving the full benefit of offshore 
energy resources. 
 
¶4.  (U)  Hamm told CG in early February that he felt part of his 
legacy was a vibrant political culture that produced three 
well-qualified potential successors.  During the tribute to the 
Premier, held the night before the vote to succeed him, CG spoke 
with more than a dozen delegates and journalists, none of whom 
was willing to predict anything but an extremely close first 
ballot in the race to choose the new party leader and Premier. 
 
WELCOME, RODNEY 
--------------- 
 
¶5.  (U)  True enough, the leadership convention's first vote on 
Hamm's successor as party leader was almost evenly split.  60 
votes out of about 2,200 cast separated first and third place. 
Rodney MacDonald led Bill Black -- a retired insurance executive 
and the apparent choice of the Halifax business community -- by 
789 votes to 742, with former provincial Finance Minister Neil 
Leblanc polling 730.  Convention rules required Leblanc to drop 
out and he honored the agreement he and MacDonald had made that 
whoever finished third would throw his support to the other.  In 
the second round of voting Black picked up over 100 Leblanc 
votes but Macdonald easily carried the day with 1,263. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Although Premier Hamm was officially neutral in the 
contest to pick his successor, it seemed clear to a number of 
observers that he has been grooming MacDonald for bigger things 
for some time.  In addition to MacDonald's portfolio as Tourism 
Minister and Minister Responsible for Health Promotion he was 
also put in charge of the province's immigration strategy in 
2005 (reftel).  CG has met MacDonald both formally and socially 
on a number of occasions and has been impressed with his 
accessibility and interest in good bilateral relations.  Our 
Consular Section has helped MacDonald, who has worked 
professionally as a fiddle player, with several inquiries about 
cross-border travel for musicians.  We see no reason to think 
that the new Premier of Nova Scotia will be any different than 
in predecessor in wanting good bilateral relations. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  How the new Premier will fare with provincial 
politics and on the national stage will be interesting to watch. 
 Macdonald takes over a minority government that has a strong 
and effective opposition in the NDP, but which has worked 
relatively harmoniously with the opposition.  In the short term 
he will have to continue the working relationship Hamm and his 
senior staff developed with the NDP and Liberals to get budgets 
and legislation passed.  He will also have to decide fairly 
quickly when to call a provincial election and seek his own 
majority.  One opposition member with whom we spoke recently 
said he expects a late spring election, after school is out and 
Halifax's significant population of university students goes 
home; the downside of that for MacDonald is that a provincial 
vote so soon could cause a backlash against the Tories from 
 
HALIFAX 00000035  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
voters who were just at the polls in January for the federal 
election. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  In MacDonald's favor in the next election is that he 
could attract younger urban voters to a party that has its base 
among older voters in rural Nova Scotia.  Hamm, a respected 
former country doctor from a rural area, would likely campaign 
for him to reassure rural voters that they had nothing to fear 
from the new Premier.  MacDonald's chief rival, Bill Black, is 
the nominee in a downtown Halifax riding that was vacated by a 
Liberal.  The Tories need to secure that seat, although it will 
mean that MacDonald will almost certainly have to give a once 
and possibly future opponent a job in the cabinet. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Nationally, MacDonald will be by far the youngest 
Premier, and will need to develop his own gravitas in order to 
be taken seriously at the First Ministers' meetings.  We expect 
that he will be cautious at first on the national scene, working 
out of the spotlight to forge alliances with other Premiers and 
at least initially only seeking wider attention on issues of 
direct concern to Nova Scotia that will play well at home.  With 
time, however, depending on how long he is able to remain 
Premier, he has the potential to become one of the 
longer-serving and influential Premiers.  We do not have the 
sense at this point that he has ambitions for national political 
office, but if he is still in office 10 years from now that 
could well have changed. 
 
BIO INFORMATION 
------------ 
 
¶10.  (U)  We have already transmitted separately bio information 
on Premier-designate MacDonald. 
HILL