This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 GEORGETOWN 000181 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/CAR 
S/CRS 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM GY
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION DRAWS BATTLE LINE: ELECTION PREVIEW #4 
 
REF: A. GEORGETOWN 71 
 
     ¶B. GEORGETOWN 111 
     ¶C. GEORGETOWN 137 
     ¶D. GEORGETOWN 167 
     ¶E. 05 GEORGETOWN 1350 
     ¶F. 05 GEORGETOWN 1271 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Roland W. Bullen 
For reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
Action Request for WHA: See para 15 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  Technical preparations for Guyana's 
elections are proceeding reasonably well (ref A), but the 
process is deadlocked for political reasons.  The main 
opposition party PNC/R, facing dim electoral prospects, is 
working to obstruct and discredit the election process.  The 
PNC/R leadership is following a two-track strategy -- 
tentatively preparing for elections on the one hand but 
maneuvering for postponed elections on the other.  The Guyana 
Elections Commission (GECOM) is now at an impasse over the 
issue of how to verify the voter list.  The PNC/R has stated 
its demand clearly -- it will not go to elections unless 
GECOM conducts a full house-to-house verification of the 
entire list of 440,185 registered voters from 2001.  Such an 
exercise is as lengthy, costly, and unnecessary as it sounds. 
 Post and the rest of the international donor community 
continue to actively encourage GECOM and the political 
parties to communicate, resolve differences, and move ahead 
with elections preparations.  However, this message does not 
appear to be getting through to elements determined to 
disrupt the process.  If the OAS wants to put early crisis 
prevention in Guyana into practice, then the time has come. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
Opposition Leader Corbin Addresses Nation, Attacks GECOM 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶2. (U) Robert Corbin, leader of the opposition PNC/R, 
delivered an address to the nation on television February 14. 
 This address was little more than a personal attack on GECOM 
for its purported lack of progress in addressing the PNC/R's 
concerns about the electoral process -- principally that the 
2001 voter list (2001 OLE) must be verified through a full 
house-to-house verification exercise (see para 9). 
 
¶3. (C) The level of personal animosity that Corbin and the 
PNC/R are directing at GECOM and its embattled Chairman Dr. 
Steve Surujbally is cause for great concern.  Surujbally has 
privately expressed fears for his personal safety.  As the 
political atmosphere becomes more volatile, the risk that 
Surujbally will resign is increasing. His resignation would 
likely bring the electoral process to a standstill. 
 
--------------------------- 
PNC/R Acting in Desperation 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Corbin's address confirmed that the opposition would 
prefer to make GECOM and the voter list scapegoats rather 
than embark on a constructive political campaign.  The PNC/R 
appears to be acting in desperation -- much of the party 
leadership is resigned to a poor election result and campaign 
funding sources are drying up. 
 
¶5. (C) In private conversations with Ambassador, persons 
associated with the opposition have indicated that Corbin 
believes the PNC/R will not win the election (Note: PNC/R 
received 42% of votes in the 2001 election) and that the 
PNC/R has failed to raise sufficient funds to run a 
competitive campaign largely because of concerns about 
Corbin's leadership.  These interlocutors also warn (perhaps 
disingenuously) that the PNC/R does not fully control 
militant, armed elements that may resort to political 
violence if the opposition's demands are not met.  The recent 
murder of Afro-Guyanese journalist/activist Ronald Waddell 
and reports of weapons shipments into Guyana have raised the 
tension level considerably (refs B and C). 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Calls for Postponing/Boycotting Elections 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) The PNC/R and some other opposition members see little 
to gain from elections in 2006 and would welcome a delay. 
They favor a period of shared governance between the PPP/C 
government and the opposition.  This view stems from the 
Herdmanston accord that resolved the crisis after the 1997 
election.  The accord committed the government and the 
opposition to undertake broad constitutional reform to move 
beyond a winner-take-all, race-driven political system.  This 
process has stalled and some feel that elections should not 
take place until these reforms are completed. 
¶7. (U) For example, the African Cultural and Development 
Association (ACDA) has taken this position.  ACDA placed a 
full-page advertisement in the January 18 Kaieteur News (one 
of two daily independent newspapers).  The ad listed ten 
reasons why African Guyanese should not vote, such as another 
election without shared governance "would commit future 
generations of African people to powerlessness". 
 
¶8. (U) There is no reason to even countenance the idea of 
postponing elections.  On a technical level, GECOM is well 
placed to fulfill its mandate by August 4 -- to deliver an 
election in which each eligible voter is able to register and 
to vote only once.  The Joint International Technical 
Assessor (JITA) has confirmed that preparations are 
proceeding satisfactorily.  GECOM has developed a viable plan 
for "cleaning up" the 2001 OLE that will form the basis for 
the 2006 voter list.  Polling day safeguards such as 
indelible ink and voter lists with photographs will minimize 
fraud. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Dispute Over Voter List Verification 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (U) The opposition claims that the 2001 OLE is somehow 
padded with tens of thousands of ineligible or fictitious 
voters -- despite the fact that independent experts who 
examined the list vouched that it meets international 
standards.  One frequently heard, baseless claim is that the 
tens of thousands of Guyanese who have emigrated since 2001 
need to be removed from the voter list.  On the contrary, 
article 59 of Guyana's constitution grants every Guyanese 
citizen the right to vote regardless of where they live. 
 
¶10. (U) The PNC/R is demanding full house-to-house 
verification in order to legitimate the 2001 OLE -- an 
unnecessary, time-consuming, expensive exercise.  GECOM has 
estimated this would take six months and cost USD 2 million, 
meaning it could not be completed by the August 4 
constitutional due date for elections.  Moreover, no law 
allows GECOM to remove registered voters who are not home 
when the verifiers come to check.  Real and perceived 
elections shenanigans during the previous five decades 
continue to fuel mutual distrust between the PNC/R and 
governing PPP/C parties.  However, a full house-to-house 
verification would simply lead to further disputes. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
Supporting GECOM Process, But Election Still Guyana's Show 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶11. (U) Donors have undertaken several initiatives to keep 
the electoral process on track. 
 
- Donors invited all political parties to the Canadian High 
Commission February 3 in the wake of Waddell's murder to 
condemn all forms of violence.  Only the PNC/R refused to 
come, on the grounds that the "conditions did not facilitate 
a productive meeting", later specifying that the PNC/R could 
not be in the same room as the PPP/C. 
 
- Donors met with Surujbally February 10 to urge him to 
improve GECOM's public relations effort with the political 
parties and the general public. 
 
- OAS A/SYG Albert Ramdin and Commonwealth Secretariat 
Special Envoy to Guyana Sir Paul Reeves were both in 
Georgetown the week of February 13 consulting with political 
and civil society leaders.  At a widely publicized symposium 
they both made clear that elections must proceed as 
constitutionally due and that boycotting the polls would be 
terribly self-defeating. 
 
¶12. (SBU) While actively supporting the electoral process, 
the donors are determined not to allow GECOM, the GoG, or 
opposition parties to drag the international community into a 
situation where it is held accountable for the election 
process.  The message is clear -- Guyanese are responsible 
for running this election. 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Process Now Deadlocked, Crisis Prevention Needed 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶13. (U) Preparations for the 2006 elections have reached an 
impasse over the issue of voter list verification.  The 
opposition PNC/R is adamant in its demand for full 
house-to-house verification.  The six commissioners on the 
Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) are deadlocked.  The 
three who represent the opposition refuse to budge from this 
demand. 
 
¶14. (C) Donor missions (U.S., Canada, UK, EU, UNDP, IMF, IDB) 
are in full agreement that the PNC/R must be approached soon 
to resolve this verification impasse.  The donors further 
agree that Ramdin's concept of a "pre-election agreement" on 
a post-election agenda would be an effective bargaining chip 
(ref D).  Agreement on a defined list of important political 
issues to be addressed immediately following the elections, 
with the international community as guarantor, would give the 
opposition an incentive to participate constructively. 
However, a pre-election agreement would require the 
Government of Guyana's full support in order to work.  It 
would not be appropriate for the bilateral donors to initiate 
these discussions. 
 
¶15. (SBU) Action Request: Post requests WHA to urge OAS to 
quickly approach the opposition parties and the Government of 
Guyana in order to foster a dialogue on the concept of a 
guaranteed pre-election agreement. 
BULLEN