This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GEORGETOWN 000157 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SOCI PGOV PHUM SMIG CVIS GY
SUBJECT: CENSUS PROVIDES INSIGHT INTO GUYANESE SOCIETY 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY.  The GoG released the results of Guyana's 2002 
Population and Housing Census in October 2005.  The census 
confirmed two demographic trends that will profoundly shape the 
country's political and economic development: a) total population 
is stagnant and predicted to fall; and b) the ethnic composition 
is changing, with potentially interesting consequences on 
Guyana's race-driven political environment.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Total Population: A Rush for the Exit 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. The GoG released the final report of the 2002 Population and 
Housing Census in October 2005.  Guyana's total population as of 
September 2002 was 751,223.  This represents a 3.8 percent 
increase compared to the 1991 census total of 723,673, but a net 
decrease of 1.1 percent compared to 1980 population of 759,567. 
 
¶3. In the entire western hemisphere in the three decades between 
1970 and 2000, only the islands of Montserrat and St. Kitts and 
Nevis recorded lower population growth than Guyana's 5 percent. 
By comparison, the population of the Caribbean region as a whole 
grew by 51 percent, the western hemisphere (including the U.S. 
and Canada) by 62 percent, and the U.S. by 35 percent over the 
same period. 
 
¶4. Why has Guyana come to a screeching halt, demographically 
speaking?  Relentless outward migration to the U.S., Canada, the 
Caribbean and (less so now) the U.K.  In a 2003 survey of 1,700 
Guyanese high school students, 59 percent said they think they 
will leave Guyana permanently within ten years.  Post's Consular 
Section issued more than 73,000 immigrant visas between 1992 and 
2004, meaning that an average 0.8 percent of the population 
obtained an immigrant visa to the U.S. each year during that 
period.  Even more migrate legally to Canada, UK, Caribbean, and 
even Africa (Botswana has been snapping up Guyanese teachers for 
more than a decade).  Many others migrate illegally and are not 
caught in the statistics.  Definitive numbers are elusive, but 
estimates of the total number of Guyana-born emigrants living 
abroad range from 500,000 to 1 million -- a massive diaspora 
relative to Guyana's resident population. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Survival Ratio Confirms Emigration Trend 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. Guyana's survival ratio -- the percentage of a previous 
census' population reappearing in a subsequent census -- in 2002 
revealed startling evidence of emigration's effect.  The report's 
authors expected at least 90 percent of 0-19 year-olds in 1980 to 
have survived until the 2002 census.  Instead, only 53 percent of 
these chidren and teenagers in 1980 were still living in Guyana 
in 2002 -- meaning that Guyana has lost almost half of its 
generation born from 1961 to 1980 that should now be in its prime 
productive years. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
UN Foresees Drastically Shrinking Guyanese Population 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶6. The latest UN "World Population Prospects" was released in 
February 2005.  The prediction for Guyana is dire.  The UN 
projected Guyana's population will be 488,000 in 2050 -- a 35 
percent reduction from today's level.  Only Ukraine will 
experience a greater proportional decline over the next 45 years. 
If the UN prediction is correct, by 2040 Guyana's population will 
be shrinking faster than anywhere else on the planet.  Long-term 
projections of this nature are highly sensitive to modeling 
assumptions.  But even a milder version of this forecast would 
put crippling strain on Guyana's capacity to sustain itself as a 
viable state. 
 
------------------------------- 
Age Distribution: Getting Older 
------------------------------- 
 
¶7. Table of census results showing distribution of population by 
age. 
 
                  Percent 
             ------------------ 
Age Group    1980   1991   2002 
---------    ----   ----   ---- 
0-19         53.5   46.3   44.4 
20-39        28.0   34.0   31.4 
40-59        12.5   13.8   17.1 
60+              5.7    5.9    6.3 
Not Stated    0.3    0.0    0.7 
 
¶8. The median age was 22.9 in 2002 compared to 18.6 in 1980.  In 
1980, 53.5 percent of the population was under 20 years old. 
This ageing trend will have negative long-term consequences.  The 
report warns of "increased need for health, pension and national 
insurance provisions for the elderly, or policies 
governing/encouraging return migration".  Guyana is ill-equipped 
to provide these social services under current circumstances, let 
alone when demand for them increases. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
Race/Ethnic Composition: Amerindian, Mixed Heritage Grow 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶9.  Table of census results showing distribution of population by 
race/ethnicity. 
 
                          Population (Percent of Total) 
                 --------------------------------------------- - 
Background            1980            1991            2002 
----------       --------------  --------------  -------------- 
East Indian      394,417 (51.9)  351,939 (48.6)  326,395 (43.4) 
African/Black        234,094 (30.8)  233,465 (32.3)  226,861 
(30.2) 
Amerindian        40,343  (5.3)   46,722  (6.5)   68,819  (9.2) 
Mixed Heritage    84,764 (11.2)   87,881 (12.1)  125,669 (16.7) 
Other              5,948  (0.8)    3,664  (0.5)    3,479  (0.5) 
 
                       Percent Change 
                    -------------------- 
Ethnic Background   1980-1991  1991-2002 
-----------------   ---------  --------- 
East Indian             -10.8       -7.3 
African/Black               -0.3       -2.8 
Amerindian               15.8       47.3 
Mixed Heritage            3.7       43.0 
Other                   -38.4       -5.0 
 
¶10. The number of self-identified East Indians declined by over 
25,000 from 1991 to 2002, showing that they continued to emigrate 
in large numbers even after the PPP came to power in 1992.  The 
East Indian population fell by 42,478 between 1980 and 1991 when 
the PNC was still in office.  While still Guyana's largest ethnic 
group at 43.4 percent of the total population, this is a 
significant drop from 1991 when they comprised 48.6 percent. 
 
¶11. The Amerindian population increased by almost half from 1991 
to 2002, and they now make up over 9 percent of the total 
population.  Guyana's Amerindians are far less likely to migrate 
and their fertility rates are higher than other Guyanese. 
 
¶12. The number of people identifying themselves as of mixed 
heritage grew by 43 percent between 1991 and 2002.  This growth 
probably reflects diminishing importance of traditional ethnicity- 
based social and political ties as well as more cross-ethnic 
relationships.  In a country where race has been the primary 
driver of voting habits and the two main political parties have 
each taken its ethnic electorate for granted, more people who do 
not self-identify with one particular ethnic group may mean more 
votes across traditional ethnic party lines.  With 17 percent of 
the population, the "mixed" constituency could shake up the 
political establishment. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Religion: Fewer Hindus, Protestant Groups Gain 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶13. Taken together, Christian denominations account for 56 
percent of the population making Christians the largest single 
religious group.  28 percent of the total population is Hindu -- 
40,000 fewer Hindus than in 1991.  The number of Pentecostal 
Christians more than doubled between 1991 and 2002 with 17 
percent of the population identifying themselves as Pentecostal 
in 2002.  The absolute numbers of Muslims and Roman Catholics 
have both declined since 1991 -- Muslims now making up 7 percent 
and Catholics 8 percent of the population. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶14. The census results and UN report point to a grim picture of 
Guyana's future -- a downward spiral of shrinking population in a 
weakening state.  As more Guyanese emigrate, the pressure and 
opportunities increase for those who remain to follow abroad. 
Guyana is rich in natural resources (i.e., minerals, timber, and 
wildlife) and capable in agriculture, but poor in other economic 
sectors such as services and manufacturing.  Entrepreneurs see 
little incentive to invest in businesses other than natural 
resource extraction.  Continued population decline will only 
exacerbate this fact. Of course, one group in particular has a 
strong vested interest in a sparsely populated, weaker Guyanese 
state -- the narco-traffickers. 
 
¶15. Comment continued:  The census does contain one potential 
silver lining.  The uptick in those who self-report as mixed 
heritage may reflect frustation with Guyana's current racially- 
charged political climate.  By translating this sentiment into 
votes for change, disaffected Guyanese could usher in a new era 
of more effective governance.  End comment. 
 
BULLEN