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C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000294 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR AND DS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ASEC GJ XL
SUBJECT: GRENADA:  MORE UNFOUNDED COUP RUMORS 
 
REF: A. 04 BRIDGETOWN 2415 
     ¶B. 04 PORT OF SPAIN 1767 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Mary Kramer, for reasons 1.4 (b and d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  After weeks of hurried phone calls and 
circumspect hints that something unspecified was about to 
happen in Grenada, Prime Minister Keith Mitchell finally 
confided to the Ambassador during a face-to-face meeting in 
December that he feared opposition politicians were out to 
change Grenada's democratic system of government.  Mitchell 
claimed that remnants of the leftist People's Revolutionary 
Government (PRG) and their supporters (allegedly with 
criminal ties) were looking for an opportunity to return 
Grenada to one-party rule.  Diligent investigation by 
Embassies Grenada and Bridgetown failed to turn up any 
credible evidence of a coup in the offing.  It is likely that 
the PM's scaremongering was motivated by an attempt to 
consolidate his own position domestically after a failed 
attempt to discredit a popular opposition politician.  End 
summary. 
 
Fragile Polity? 
-------------- 
 
¶2. (C) After weeks of cryptic phone messages left by his 
press officer and desultory attempts to meet face-to-face 
with the Ambassador, Grenada Prime Minister Keith Mitchell 
finally confided to the Ambassador during a December meeting 
that he feared opposition politicians were out to change 
Grenada's democratic system of elected government.  The PM 
claimed that the opposition politicians, who were members of 
the leftist PRG, along with supporters who had criminal ties, 
were looking for an opportunity to unseat him and his ruling 
New National Party in order to run the country unilaterally. 
The Ambassador pledged that Embassy staff, including the RSO, 
would investigate the situation and report back to her. 
 
The Enforcers See Little Threat 
------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) After meeting with a number of senior GOG security 
officials, including Acting Commissioner of the Royal 
Grenadian Police Force (RGPF) Winston James, RGPF Special 
Branch Head Anthony DeGale, and National Security Advisor 
Nestor Ogilvie, Grenada Principal Officer and Bridgetown RSO 
reached the conclusion that there is no threat of a coup 
taking place in Grenada in the foreseeable future. 
 
¶4. (C) Special Branch Head DeGale observed that coup rumors 
tend to resurface every October, the anniversary month of the 
1983 U.S.-led intervention that removed the PRG from power. 
DeGale argued that Grenada's Constitution has provisions in 
place to protect against a coup.  In addition, there are 
agreements within the Regional Security System (RSS), of 
which Grenada is a member, to deploy troops to restore order 
and provide assistance to member states.  (Note:  The RSS 
deployed to Grenada immediately after Hurricane Ivan in 
September 2004 when local police proved ineffective.  End 
Note.)  DeGale, like many Grenadians, believes the United 
States would ultimately "call the shots" should any threats 
to stability arise.  In the event of a coup, he said the USG 
would likely impose sanctions against an unlawful government, 
thereby weakening it. 
 
¶5. (C) National Security Adviser Ogilvie, a native of Grenada 
who served in the Jamaica Defence Force after being trained 
in England (Grenada not having a defence force), is confident 
that there is no threat of a coup; he believes any change in 
government will happen through legal means.  Ogilvie 
speculated that if the opposition National Democratic 
Congress were to come to power through an election, it would 
not produce a noticeable difference in policy nor would it 
threaten constitutional rule. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (C) The hothouse atmosphere of Grenada politics seems to 
lend itself to periodic rumors of coup plots.  Following the 
devastation caused by Hurricane Ivan in September 2004, PM 
Mitchell warned that elements on the island were threatening 
to take advantage of the situation and overthrow his 
government (reftels).  Although the opposition has failed to 
capitalize on the GOG's lackluster performance in the 
aftermath of the hurricane, opposition leader Peter David has 
recently emerged stronger after the ruling party's campaign 
to disqualify him from his status as an MP backfired.  (Note: 
 The question as to whether David's status as a dual national 
(Grenada/Canada) disqualifies him from being elected to the 
House of Representatives is now in the courts.  End note.) 
With a parliamentary majority of one seat, the government is 
likely anxious about its level of popular support.  PM 
Mitchell may therefore believe that one way to shore up his 
government's image locally is to be seen with the protective 
arm of the USG draped over his shoulders. 
KRAMER