VZCZCXYZ0010
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBE #0105 0331500
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021500Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELIZE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9626
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS BELIZE 000105 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN - JASON MACK 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BH
SUBJECT: BELIZE: 30 DAYS OUT - NATIONAL MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A) BELIZE 0020; B) 05 BELIZE 1027; C) 05 BELIZE 898 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  In the run up to country-wide municipal elections on 
March 1, neither of the major political parties appears to 
have a clear hold on what they consider to be their main 
constituencies.  The Belize City mayoral race looks to be a 
dead heat.  Recent unseasonable heavy rains and road 
erosion, intractable unemployment, a series of financial 
scandals, and an alarming crime wave all have taken a toll 
on public confidence in government.  If the ruling People's 
United Party (PUP) has a good showing, then Prime Minister 
Said Musa may conclude that his government still retains a 
sufficient mandate of the people, and could call early 
national elections; conversely, poor results for the PUP may 
lead him to delay national elections, which need not be held 
until March, 2008.  If the opposition United Democratic 
Party (UDP) does not do well, its leader, Dean Barrow, could 
lose his position. 
End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) With only 30 days until the March 1 nationwide 
municipal elections, the parties have stepped up their door- 
to-door and media activity.  The past six months of 
nominations and campaigning had been relatively quiet, but 
in recent weeks the political atmosphere has become more 
intense (REF A).  The increasingly influential Association 
of Concerned Belizeans (ACB) has launched a "don't sell your 
vote" campaign designed to abate the easy influence 
techniques that the parties are rumored to have used in the 
past (e.g., giving away of "blue notes" - Bz$100 notes). 
 
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WHAT'S AT STAKE? 
---------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) If the United Democratic Party (UDP) does not have 
a good showing on March 1, the party's leader, Dean Barrow, 
could lose his position. If the ruling People's United Party 
(PUP) has a good showing, then Prime Minister Said Musa may 
conclude that his government still retains a sufficient 
mandate of the people, and could call early national 
elections; conversely, poor results for the PUP may lead him 
to delay national elections, which need not be held until 
March, 2008. 
 
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THE FOCI OF THE CAMPAIGNS 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The PUP's campaign has played upon the residual 
personal popularity of PM Musa, while the UDP has oriented 
its national campaign around Belize City Mayoral Candidate 
Zenaida Moya (REF A), the middle class, and the working 
poor.  The UDP has concentrated most of its limited 
resources on Moya's race, but inside sources report that, 
even here, spending has been constrained.  Some speculate 
that Barrow is conserving party funds for the possibility of 
early national elections. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The single-city party - Vision Inspired by the 
People (VIP) (REF B), which aspires to win the mayorship of 
Belmopan, has generated considerable national attention. 
The two independent newspapers, Amandala and Reporter, have 
praised the new party's motivation and prospects. 
Separately, some other mayoral candidates have chosen to run 
independently, possibly reflecting widespread disenchantment 
with both the PUP and UDP. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
ANALYSIS & CONCLUSION: A WEARY ELECTORATE, DISTRUSTFUL OF 
BOTH MAJOR PARTIES 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The ruling PUP looks to be in trouble, as recent 
unseasonable heavy rains and road erosion, as well as 
financial scandals and an alarming crime wave, have dented 
public confidence in government.  The PUP has sought to 
shore up its popularity in other ways, such as the recent 
write off of Development Finance Corporation loans (REF C). 
Informal polling of a cross-section of voters in Belize City 
reveals that the mayoral race is a dead heat, and that 
neither the UDP nor the PUP have clear holds on what they 
consider to be their main constituencies. 
 
DIETER