This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000202 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE TROY PEDERSON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM TALKS: 
POLITICIANS START TO DISCUSS REQUIRED MAJORITY 
 
REF: A. A) BELGRADE 0170 
 
     ¶B. B) 05 BELGRADE 2185 
 
 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The pro-Independence and pro-Union blocs 
have started to focus on a definition of the majority 
required in the vote for independence, but remain far apart. 
Ambassador Polt's visit to Montenegro February 7-8 
underscored USG support for a free and fair referendum, 
consistent with international and European standards, which 
would allow the voters to clearly decide between independence 
and continued union with Serbia.  He also firmly and publicly 
supported the mediation efforts of EU Envoy Miroslav Lajcak, 
meeting with Lajcak privately three times.  The next steps 
expected are the simultaneous adoption of a law to augment 
(but not detract from) the existing referendum laws and a 
political declaration to govern further consequences stemming 
from the referendum vote.  Lajcak plans to put the EU bottom 
line on majority on the table Monday, February 13.  End 
summary. 
 
DEFINING VICTORY 
---------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In Ambassador Polt's meetings with both the 
pro-Independence (GoM) and pro-Union (opposition) blocs, the 
major issue was defining the majority required in the 
referendum vote for independence. PM Milo Djukanovic (DPS), 
President Filip Vujanovic (DPS), and Parliament speaker Ranko 
Krivokapic (SDP) uniformly rejected the possibility of 
requiring 55 percent of votes cast to approve independence. 
All said such a standard would be "absolutely and 
categorically unfair and non-democratic." They argued that in 
case independence won a majority of votes cast but not 55 
percent, a minority would be allowed to dictate the results. 
Without supporting any specific percentage, the Ambassador 
nevertheless rejected the assertion, noting, for example, 
that the U.S. Constitution requires a 2/3 super-majority for 
amendments. Djukanovic and Krivokapic (in separate meetings) 
both railed against what they called "the unholy triumvirate" 
of EU DG Solana, Serbian PM Kostunica, and the Serbian 
Orthodox Church, all of whom oppose independence.  They 
excluded Solana's envoy Lajcak from that criticism, noting 
they support his efforts and have found him to be a fair, if 
tough, interlocutor.  Ambassador Polt reminded the GoM to 
&listen8 to the EU on this issue. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Lajcak told the Ambassador that SaM President 
Marovic (DPS) has called the 55 percent requirement high, 
while admitting that no other formula would be acceptable to 
both blocs.  Comment: Marovic's influence on the GoM is 
marginal, however. End comment.  The large and influential 
NGO (and proto-political party) Group for Changes has 
publicly rejected the 55 percent requirement. President 
Vujanovic told Ambassador that if the 55 percent requirement 
is imposed, and the vote is between 50 percent and 55 
percent, DPS would withdraw from all State Union bodies - 
ministries and parliament alike. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Predrag Bulatovic (SNP), leader of the opposition 
bloc, held firm to the opposition demand that independence 
must be supported by 50 percent plus one of all registered 
voters to be approved.  He conveyed that same message 
privately to the Ambassador. 
 
 
Draft Referendum Law 
-------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) With the assistance of EU Envoy Lajcak, a draft law on 
the referendum has been prepared, supplementing current law 
with respect to technical issues including administration of 
the referendum, financing, conduct of the campaign, media 
coverage, international and domestic observation, and 
protection of the rights of citizens.  A political 
declaration will be adopted at the same time as the law; a 
key element of the declaration is agreement that the results 
of the referendum will control subsequent decisions taken by 
the parties and members of parliament. (Ref B) Additionally, 
Lajcak has proposed that the campaign be 60 days in length; 
the GoM had wanted the legal minimum of 45 days, the 
opposition wanted 90 days (the legal maximum) to 180 days. 
The law does not address the required majority issue. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The pro-Independence forces have already told Lajcak 
that they support the draft law.  Lajcak told the Ambassador 
that he required of Bulatovic that the opposition give its 
answer quickly, in a matter of "hours."  Bulatovic traveled 
to Belgrade late February 8 to "consult" with Serbian PM 
Kostunica and Serbian President Tadic and has since announced 
that he will not give his response until Monday, February 13. 
 Lajcak noted that if the opposition decides not to vote for 
the law, the GoM has sufficient votes to pass it on their 
own.  Moreover, said Lajcak to Ambassador, the EU would not 
consider passage of the law with only GoM votes to be a 
prohibited "unilateral" action. 
 
¶7. (C) Responding to the Ambassador,s question on the EU,s 
bottom line on an acceptable majority, Lajcak noted in total 
confidence that depending on the closeness of the outcome to 
55 percent, the EU would ultimately accept &close, but not 
quite.8 
POLT