This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000176 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: CLOSURE OF ICTY 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR ICTY
SUBJECT: DEL PONTE CONFIDENT OF MLADIC HANDOVER 
 
Classified By: DCM Roderick Moore, reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
¶1.  (c)  Summary:  Despite public criticism of SaM efforts to 
date on ICTY cooperation, del Ponte told assembled 
ambassadors she is convinced she will have Mladic in The 
Hague by the end of February - but only if the EU exerts 
maximum pressure on Kostunica by conditioning SAA talks on 
Mladic's being handed over.  We should encourage the EU to do 
so, and recommend an early certification decision by the 
Secretary as additional pressure.  End summary. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
¶2.  (c)  ICTY chief prosecutor Carla del Ponte's public 
remarks following her February 6 visit to Belgrade were 
typically gloomy, belying an uncharacteristically upbeat 
appraisal in a private briefing to the diplomatic community 
at the end of the visit.  Del Ponte met with a host of GoS 
and GoSaM officials during her one-day visit, including PM 
Kostunica, intel chief Rade Bulatovic, ICTY Cooperation 
Council chair Rasim Ljajic, local war crimes special 
prosecutor Vladimir Vukcevic, and DEFMIN Stankovic. 
Following her meetings, the prosecutor issued a brief 
statement to the press critical of Serbia's lack of 
cooperation to date.  She stressed that Mladic is still at 
large and that ICTY access to documentation is still 
insufficient.  Kostunica's remarks following the visit, 
meanwhile, emphasized Serbia's national interest in 
fulfilling its obligations to the Tribunal. 
 
¶3.  (c)  Del Ponte's typically critical public remarks, 
however, were balanced by a much more hopeful assessment 
during talks with resident ambassadors at the end of her 
visit.  A visibly excited del Ponte told the group she is 
convinced/convinced she will have Mladic in The Hague by the 
end of February.  She said her assessment is based on the 
results of her private meeting with Kostunica, at which intel 
chief Rade Bulatovic was also present, wherein she said 
Kostunica passed her a document with detailed information and 
specifics about the government's efforts and progress that 
she said gave her confidence that Mladic could be wrapped up 
(she did not go into further detail, but noted, inter alia, 
that the government had shown proof that they had tracked 
Mladic "much more recently" than 2003).  She noted that her 
confidence is somewhat tempered by past experience with 
unfulfilled expectations from the GoS, but said she 
nevertheless believed Kostunica could deliver Mladic soon. 
Del Ponte highlighted that Kostunica told her there would be 
little domestic fallout from the arrest, as recent polls 
showed a majority of Serbs were in favor of Mladic's arrest. 
She noted, though, that they did not discuss the likely 
reaction from the Radical party. 
 
¶4.  (c)  Del Ponte caveated, though, that Kostunica would 
only come through if the pressure remained on the GoS to 
deliver.  She said it would be critical for the EU to 
continue to seriously threaten the suspension of SAA 
negotiations as the most credible pressure point to keep the 
GoS to its word.  She said she had already made this pitch to 
Enlargement commissioner Ollie Rehn directly, and urged local 
ambassadors to support this request in their capitals.  She 
emphasized that this was uncharacteristic of her - usually 
she declined to take a stand on political pressure, as such 
activity is out of her sphere of authority.  She stressed, 
though, that the current moment is different - that it 
represents perhaps the last, best window of political 
opportunity to capture Mladic before other events (read 
Kosovo and Montenegro) would make any such action impossible. 
 Del Ponte said once Mladic is in The Hague, Tolimir would 
quickly follow, and Karadzic would likely also follow soon 
thereafter. 
 
¶5.  (c)  Further details:  del Ponte said it looks most 
likely that Karadzic is currently in Montenegro, but admitted 
there was no solid lead in this regard, and that other 
reports had him in Serbia.  Regarding her meeting with DEFMIN 
Stankovic and VBA chief Kovac, she said it was significant 
that the military for the first time admitted that it 
supported Mladic until 2002, something they had been 
unwilling to say before.  She said she was briefed by Kovac 
on his oral report to the Supreme Defense Council, and that 
the report had uncovered some 300-400 people who had been at 
one time in the Mladic support network from 1997-2004.  She 
also said it now appeared civilian and military intelligence 
services were finally working together on Mladic.  On 
documents, she said she was pleased with the proposal to 
improve access by ICTY investigators, and said they would 
test the system in the coming weeks. 
 
¶6.  (c)  COMMENT:  Del Ponte's excitement was palpable - she 
truly seems to think Mladic's transfer is a possibility by 
the end of the month.  She is equally convinced, though, that 
it will only happen if the pressure is kept on at a high 
level.  We strongly support her proposition that the EU 
seriously threaten repercussions on the SAA talks if Mladic 
is not delivered by the end of February, and would encourage 
Washington to engage in Brussels to that effect.  In addition 
to coordinating with the EU, we recommend Washington announce 
that the Secretary will make a certification decision at the 
end of February, and that her decision will be driven by 
Belgrade's actions on Mladic.  In the event Mladic is not 
handed over by the end of February, we would recommend the 
Secretary not certify and that certain direct assistance to 
 
SIPDIS 
the Serbian government be suspended. 
POLT