This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000170 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM NOTES: TALKS 
AGREE ON MONITORING MECHANISMS- WEEK 4 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
REF: Belgrade 0143 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: Expert-level talks opened January 31, and 
quickly reached agreement that the EU, COE, OSCE, and 
OSCE/ODHIR will be invited to monitor the referendum 
campaign and vote.  The sides are still far apart on 
financing and rules for media coverage, and talks on those 
subjects will continue February 6. EU Envoy Lajcak called 
the GoS to engage the GoM on post-referendum issues, a call 
that was quickly rejected by advisors to Serbian PM 
Kostunica.  Ambassador Polt will meet with Montenegrin 
leaders February 8 (his previously scheduled visit was 
delayed after the train crash January 23). End summary. 
 
Monitoring Agreed 
 
¶2. (U) Expert-level talks opened January 31, discussing 
monitoring, financing, and media coverage of the referendum 
campaign. By February 1, the two blocs had already agreed 
on international monitoring, and specified that that the EU, 
COE, OSCE, and OSCE/ODHIR will be invited to monitor the 
referendum campaign and vote. 
 
Blocs Still Far Apart on Media, Finance 
 
¶3. (U) Despite long sessions, the blocs' experts remain far 
apart on rules for media coverage of the campaign and 
financing for the campaign.  The pro-Independence (GoM) 
bloc generally supports a focus on transparency (a view 
shared by the private media in respect of their actions). 
The pro-Union (opposition) bloc is looking for stringent 
legal controls on both media and financing; the private 
media has objected that new media laws would impinge on 
press freedoms guaranteed by recent legal reforms. The 
talks will resume February 6. 
 
Political Talks Continue, Sotto Voce 
 
¶4. (U) Ambassador Lajcak continued high-level political 
discussions on January 31 and February 1.  After meeting 
with Lajcak, President Vujanovic announced his readiness to 
delay the proposed February 7 session of Parliament. 
Vujanovic had said that he would request the Parliament to 
initiate the referendum on that date, the earliest date 
after the expiration of the Constitutional Charter's three- 
year moratorium on independence.  Vujanovic will make the 
decision to delay or not on February 6, telling Lajcak he 
would opt for delay if that would facilitate agreement in 
the talks.  The length of the delay is unclear, with 
Vujanovic's chef de cabinet telling post that it would be 
"no more than three or four days" -- but later unconfirmed 
media speculations said the rescheduled session would be on 
February 28. 
 
¶5. (U) Paralleling the expert talks, the pro-Union bloc has 
held onto their "demand" for a "national unity" government 
or, failing that, positions in the security services and in 
(non-existent) media control boards. Lajcak indicated no 
movement away from his earlier rejection of such demands 
(ref). 
 
Lajcak Lectures Government of Serbia 
 
¶6. (U) Appearing on Montenegrin TV February 1, Lajcak 
criticized the GoS for refusing to discuss Serbia- 
Montenegrin relations post-referendum, while it allows the 
Serbian Justice Minister to repeatedly assert that 
Montenegrins in Serbia will lose all rights if Montenegro 
becomes independent.  Lajcak reiterated those statements 
February 2 in addressing the OSCE Permanent Council in 
Vienna.  An advisor to Serbian President Tadic agreed with 
Lajcak's proposal, but advisors to Serbian PM Kostunica 
sharply rejected the idea, saying Lajcak had exceeded his 
mandate. 
 
Majority Question in Background 
 
¶7. (SBU) Per Lajcak's ordering of the agenda for the talks, 
no focused discussion of the majority that will be needed 
to approve independence was held.  Media speculation is 
rampant, however, and has increasingly focused on requiring 
55 percent of votes cast to approve independence, so long 
as the threshold of 50 percent of all registered voters 
cast votes. UK Ambassador Gowan told post that his talks 
January 30 with both blocs showed broad acceptance of the 
55 percent requirement, although the opposition (pro-Union) 
bloc is unwilling to state that publicly. 
 
EU Ministerial Council Recognizes Referendum Right 
 
8.(U) In their January 30 meeting, attended by Lajcak, the 
EU Council of Ministers reiterated previous positions on 
the referendum.  They recognized the right of Montenegro to 
hold the referendum, reiterating support for the December 
report of the Venice Commission on referendum standards. 
It also called on "all political forces in Montenegro to 
cooperate" and "refrain from unilateral actions that might 
reduce the chances of success in the dialogue." 
 
Comment 
 
¶9. (SBU) The international community continues to urge both 
blocs to stay committed to the dialogue - a point stressed 
by the UK and French Ambassadors in visits to Podgorica 
January 30.  For the pro-Independence bloc, that means 
showing flexibility - Vujanovic's offer to delay the 
February 7 parliamentary session is (one) step in that 
direction. For the pro-Union bloc, it is simply sticking 
with the talks and recognizing that Lajcak is first and 
foremost a mediator, not an arbitrator. For now at least, 
the opposition shows no indication that it will publicly 
agree on the key issue of the majority needed to approve 
independence (although they might acquiesce to an "imposed" 
standard), a conundrum to which the EU has the main key. 
End comment. 
 
POLT