VZCZCXRO9852
RR RUEHDE
DE RUEHAD #0430/01 0391226
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 081226Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3466
INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHRMDAB/COMUSNAVCENT
RHMFISS/COMUSCENTAF SHAW AFB SC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 000430 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARPI AND INR/B 
STATE PASS TO USTR FOR AUSTR DONNELLY, DOUG BELL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2016 
TAGS: PINR PGOV ETRD AE
SUBJECT: ANNOUNCEMENT OF NEW UAE FEDERAL CABINET IMMINENT 
 
REF: A. 05 ABU DHABI 3211 
     ¶B. 05 ABU DHABI 4905 
 
Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Michele J. Sison, reasons 1.4 ( 
b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: The announcement of a new UAE federal cabinet 
is likely to be made soon after the 40-day mourning period 
for the late UAE Vice President and Prime Minister and Dubai 
Ruler Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashid al-Maktoum has passed. 
Information Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed (AbZ) appears 
slotted to become foreign minister, Maktoum's successor and 
younger brother, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid (MbR), appears 
set to keep the Defense portfolio, and Mohammed Khalfan bin 
Kharbash, an instrumental player in our FTA negotiations, 
could be replaced as Minister of State for Financial and 
Industrial Affairs, according to Embassy contacts.  Mariam 
al-Roumi, the current under secretary for social affairs at 
the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, would head a new 
Ministry of Social Affairs and join Economy and Trade 
Minister Sheikha Lubna al-Qassimi as the cabinet's only women 
members.  Another expected development, the breakup of the 
Ministry of Justice, Islamic Affairs, and Endowments, in a 
move to ensure more resources are devoted to teaching 
moderate Islam in mosques and schools, was previewed for us 
by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) 
during DEA Administrator Karen Tandy's visit in July 2005 
(ref A). 
 
¶2. (C) Summary continued: Announcements of a new Federal 
National Council (FNC) and details about how the government 
plans to elect half the council's membership, postponed due 
to the mourning period, are likely to be announced in the 
coming weeks, sources say.  Once the new government is 
announced, we expect a stable transition, with MbR playing an 
active role as prime minister.  End Summary. 
 
¶3. (C) Speculation about the new UAE federal cabinet's makeup 
and the inter-emirate negotiations over ministerial 
portfolios have intensified during the mourning period for 
the late Sheikh Maktoum.  The general consensus among our 
contacts is that cabinet decisions have been made between MbZ 
and MbR and will be announced soon after the mourning period 
for Maktoum is over (February 13).  Our contacts also believe 
that MbR will be a much more active prime minister than was 
his late brother.  The man responsible for so many of Dubai's 
successes, including the free and open trading environment, 
is said to be interested in spreading his philosophy across 
the emirates and their institutions, especially economic 
reform and education. 
 
Foreign Affairs Portfolio 
------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Most believe that Information Minister Sheikh Abdullah 
will become the UAE's next foreign minister, replacing Rashid 
Abdullah al-Noaimi.  AbZ's ascendancy in the foreign affairs 
arena has been apparent for several years, capped last fall 
by his attendance at the UNGA where he gave the UAE's plenary 
speech.  AbZ also has led UAE diplomatic efforts in Syria, 
Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories.  The UAE's next 
ambassador to Washington and an AbZ man, InfoMin U/S Saqr 
Ghobash, has dropped hints, such as, "My boss is clever and 
intelligent," and, "The Foreign Ministry will be run better 
when there is a new government."  AbZ has also been given the 
task of coordinating the UAE's positions on difficult issues 
)- such as natural resources -) in the ongoing FTA 
negotiations with the U.S. 
 
¶5. (C) Less clear is what his older brother, Hamdan, will do 
next.  Hamdan has been Minister of State for Foreign Affairs 
since 1990, but since 2003, when he was appointed deputy 
prime minister, he has shared the responsibility of running 
Cabinet meetings with brother Sultan, the UAE's other deputy 
prime minister.  A source close to the ruling family told 
Polchief that Sheikh Hamdan will become more active as deputy 
prime minister, but no longer have the title as MinState for 
Foreign Affairs. 
 
Defense Portfolio 
----------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Despite rumors that MbR would give up the defense 
portfolio, which he has held since 1976, a source with access 
 
ABU DHABI 00000430  002 OF 003 
 
 
to the al-Nahyans insisted there will be no change.  Since 
the incorporation of Dubai's forces into the federal military 
in 1997, MbR has had no role in the decisions, staffing, or 
funding of the armed forces, leaving those responsibilities 
to MbZ.  MbZ served as Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces 
from 1993 until January 2005 when he was appointed Deputy 
Supreme Commander of the armed forces.  Given how hard MbR's 
father, the late Sheikh Rashid, pushed during UAE federation 
negotiations for Dubai to have the position, most believe 
that Dubai would not give it up.  According to chatter in one 
majlis (open council meeting), Dubai Emirate wants to keep 
the portfolio both for ceremonial purposes and because it is 
good for business (i.e. Dubai Air Show).  Some have suggested 
that MbR's younger brother, Ahmed bin Rashid, who commanded 
Dubai's forces prior to 1997, would take on the role.  Others 
said it could go to Major General Nahyan bin Zayed, commander 
of the Emiri Guard. 
 
Financial Affairs 
----------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Although Mohammed Khalfan bin Kharbash, an 
instrumental player in the ongoing U.S.-UAE FTA talks has 
agreed to hold the next round of FTA negotiations in Abu 
Dhabi the week of March 13, we have heard from two people 
that he is apparently on his way out as Minister of State for 
Financial and Industrial Affairs.  An Embassy contact said 
that ministry staff hoped he would not change ministries.  He 
also said that Kharbash has been very effective, allowing 
Finance Minister Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid of Dubai to relax. 
(Note: Kharbash is the de facto finance minister, with 
cabinet rank.  He had been very ill over the summer and has 
cut his work schedule somewhat.  Although he looked healthy 
during the London round of FTA negotiations a week ago, an 
Embassy contact confirmed that he would also go for a medical 
checkup while he was in London, and still heeded orders "to 
rest" when necessary.  End Note.) 
 
Other Portfolios 
---------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Other possible changes in the expected cabinet 
reshuffle include: 
 
-- Social Affairs: The new cabinet will have two women with 
the appointment of Mariam al-Roumi as Minister of Social 
Affairs.  Al-Roumi has been under secretary at the Ministry 
of Labor and Social Affairs.  In November 2004, Sheikha Lubna 
al-Qassimi became the first UAE woman appointed to the 
cabinet.  Sheikha Lubna told a group of U.S. Congress interns 
this week that she expected more women will be named 
ministers, without saying how many or what portfolios. 
(Note: Labor Minister Ali al-Kaabi would keep his portfolio. 
End note.) 
 
-- Islamic Affairs: The Ministry of Justice, Islamic Affairs, 
and Endowments is being split up.  Islamic Affairs will 
become a separate organization, but without cabinet status. 
MbZ previewed the split during DEA Administrator Karen 
Tandy's visit in July 2005.  He said the government wanted to 
guarantee that sufficient resources are devoted to ensuring 
that moderate Islam is preached and taught in UAE mosques and 
schools. 
 
-- Education: Sheikh Nahyan bin Mubarak would stay on as 
Minister of Higher Education, and educational affairs would 
again be split into a Ministry of Education and a Ministry of 
Higher Education.  The ministry's authority was weakened 
after establishment in September 2005 of the Abu Dhabi 
Education Council, chaired by MbZ.  MbR, who is keen on 
advancing educational initiatives, reportedly offered the 
Education portfolio Economy Minister Sheikha Lubna, who is 
the co-chair of the UAE's FTA team with the U.S. and the 
UAE's lead negotiator for the UAE-Australia FTA negotiations, 
but she refused. 
 
-- Interior: A source close to the al-Nahyans maintains that 
MinInterior Sheikh Saif bin Zayed is staying put.  However, 
usually credible and reliable sources at the ministry and Abu 
Dhabi police have told the Embassy that Saif would be 
replaced.  Other sources say he had a dispute with MbZ over a 
lucrative security communications contract involving Motorola 
and Nokia.  Saif owns the local Motorola distributorship and 
elected to go with Motorola to purchase communications 
 
ABU DHABI 00000430  003 OF 003 
 
 
equipment.  MbZ denied the contract because the armed forces 
had purchased the Nokia system. 
 
-- Homeland Security:  Some Embassy officials have heard that 
retired UAE Air Force Commander, Major General Khalid bin 
Abdullah al-Buainnain, is being touted as head of a new 
homeland security agency. 
 
-- Information and Culture: Upon AbZ's departure for the MFA, 
the ministry would be dismantled.  AbZ would continue to 
chair the board of governors of Emirates Media Inc., which 
operates three satellite television stations and seven radio 
stations. 
 
-- Health: Hamad al-Midfa is rumored to be out as minister. 
 
-- Presidential Affairs: This ministry would merge with the 
Ministry of Supreme Council and GCC Affairs, with the 
increasingly influential Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed remaining 
as minister. 
 
Limited Elections for the FNC 
----------------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) President Khalifa announced in December 2005 that the 
UAE would hold indirect elections for half the FNC membership 
and continue to appoint the other half (ref B).  The FNC 
historically begins its two-year sessions in November, but 
the council's inauguration is now three months overdue, in 
part due to Maktoum's death.  Election details will be 
announced in the coming weeks, sources say. 
SISON