This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 000180 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KPAL IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: SHINUI LEADER LAPID TO CODEL OBAMA: OLMERT LIKELY 
TO BE NEXT PRIME MINISTER 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
¶1.  (C) Shinui leader Tommy Lapid told Senator Barack Obama 
and the Ambassador January 10 that he believes that the most 
likely scenario will be that Alternate Prime Minister Ehud 
Olmert will be elected as Prime Minister in the March 28 
elections, provided he can hold the newly established Kadima 
party together.  Lapid did not indicate that the Kadima 
cohesion is at risk.  Lapid, who was joined by close 
associate Shinui MK Eti Livni, told Obama that Olmert invited 
him and Livni to his residence on January 8 as close friends 
and confidantes in the aftermath of Prime Minister Sharon's 
January 4 hospitalization and the temporary transfer of 
Sharon's authority to Olmert.  Lapid stressed his closeness 
to Olmert and emphasized that he would join in a coalition 
with Kadima if headed by Olmert.  Note: A Dialog poll 
published January 11 shows that if elections were held today, 
Kadima would win 44 out of 120 Knesset seats, a rise of four 
seats from a poll conducted January 5.  The poll also shows 
Shinui receiving only four seats, down 11 seats from its 
showing in the last elections.  End note. 
 
¶2.  (C) Asked whether Sharon's departure from the political 
scene would affect the peace process, Lapid and Livni 
asserted that Olmert would be even more dedicated than Sharon 
to moving the peace process forward.  Lapid said that the 
main problem for Olmert would be "taking Kadima along with 
him."  Lapid assessed that the main obstacles to peace now 
come from the Palestinian side, not from Israel.  He said 
that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is a 
"decent" man who wants peace, but, Lapid underscored, Abbas 
is "not capable" of bringing peace.  Commenting on the 
January 25 Palestinian Legislative Council elections, Lapid 
said that if Hamas carries a majority, the peace process 
could be postponed for another generation. 
 
¶3.  (C) On party primaries, Livni noted that Shinui's 
170-member council will rank the party's Knesset list January 
12 and that she is still campaigning for a high slot.  After 
noting her closeness to Olmert, Livni intimated that she 
would consider switching to Kadima if she does not receive a 
high enough position on the list.  She could not say whether 
others in Shinui were also considering such a move, but given 
the party's collapse in the polls, this cannot be ruled out. 
 
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JONES