This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 000089 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH TW IZ SN
SUBJECT: MM LEE ON CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS AND IRAQ 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Patricia L. Herbold for Reasons 1.4(b)/(d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  During her January 6 courtesy call, 
Ambassador Herbold engaged Singapore's senior statesman, 
Minister Mentor (MM) Lee Kuan Yew, in a wide-ranging 
discussion covering China, Taiwan, and Iraq.  MM Lee 
commented that the U.S. presence in Asia created the 
stability that engendered the "Asian Miracle."  He stated 
that China's ascendance and military build-up are not 
alarming; China will be focused on its internal economic 
growth for the "next twenty years."  He noted that President 
Chen Shui-bian's New Year's speech was merely an attempt to 
boost his domestic standing.  He reiterated his view that the 
United States must remain engaged in Iraq -- a terrorist 
success there will bring dire consequences for Southeast 
Asia.  End Summary. 
 
China 
----- 
 
¶2.  (U) Ambassador Herbold asked MM Lee for his opinion on 
China's ascendance.  For at least the next 20 years, China 
wants no entanglements and prefers to focus on its economic 
growth, Lee said.  MM Lee observed that China is growing 
quickly, but unevenly, with most growth along the coasts and 
major rivers.  Developing its interior will remain China's 
greater challenge.  If the United States had not brought 
China into the world community, none of this would be 
happening, he said, adding that the process now is "not 
stoppable." 
 
¶3.  (C) Turning to Singapore-China relations,  MM Lee 
recounted that Singapore was the first to recognize China as 
a "market economy." Negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement 
(FTA) between Singapore and China had been on track until two 
things happened.  First, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, who 
was then Deputy Prime Minister, visited Taiwan in July 2004. 
Second, Singapore supported Japan's bid for a seat on the UN 
Security Council in the fall.  Now, MM Lee wryly observed, 
China claims that it needs a committee to study the need for 
an FTA. "They punish you in subtle ways," he said. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Ambassador Herbold remarked on China's significant 
military build-up, and MM Lee stated that China wants to 
increase the price of any potential U.S. intervention in 
Taiwan. Any conflict between China and Taiwan would be a 
disaster, said Lee, and China does not want one.  Not only 
would Chinese be killing fellow Chinese, but any conflict 
would result in economic embargo and retaliation from the 
United States and Japan, he surmised. 
 
Taiwan 
------ 
 
¶5.  (C) The Ambassador and MM Lee discussed President Chen 
Shui-bian's New Year's Day speech.  MM Lee thought President 
Chen's goal was to boost the standing of his Democratic 
Progressive Party, which did not perform well in the December 
3 municipal elections.  MM Lee also commented that President 
Chen is "parochial" and has miscalculated, believing that the 
Chinese will be preoccupied with the 2008 Olympics and 
failing to recognize that "the world community values peace, 
stability and growth more than it values Taiwan." 
 
¶6.  (C) When asked about the opposition party's prospects in 
the 2008 Presidential election in Taiwan, MM Lee responded 
that the current mayor of Taipei, the Kuomintang's Ma 
Ying-jeou, is young and not corrupt.  Though the son of a 
mainland family, he was born in Hong Kong.   MM Lee asserted 
that Ma didn't have an emotional bond with China, and a vote 
for him would be one way Taiwanese could moderately express a 
distinction between themselves and China. 
 
Iraq 
---- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Turning to Iraq, MM Lee emphasized the importance 
of defeating the terrorists there.  If they win in Iraq, they 
will be emboldened in Southeast Asia.  If they are defeated 
in the Middle East, however, they will become disheartened. 
Comparing the situation to Vietnam in the sixties, he 
repeated his frequent admonition that the United States must 
remain fully engaged in Iraq.  He observed that, in Vietnam, 
the South had lost the will to fight, whereas in Iraq, the 
Shiites and Kurds have not lost the will to fight, so it is 
feasible that Iraqis will begin to take over the fight, and 
U.S. casualties will diminish, making the situation more 
palatable for Americans.  Though a risk, civil war could be 
avoided, said the MM, if the Gulf States do not support the 
Sunnis, as the Sunnis cannot continue to fight without 
outside help.  MM Lee noted he will travel to Saudia Arabia 
in the next two weeks. 
 
Closing 
------- 
 
¶8.  (U) In closing, MM Lee commented that the United States 
had made the "Asian miracle" happen.  He observed that the 
United States had fought three wars in the region -- World 
War II, Korea, and Vietnam.  Both Japan and Korea recovered 
from these conflicts with U.S. assistance; Taiwan, Hong Kong 
and Singapore became the "little tigers"; and China and India 
are on the rise.  MM Lee said that the United States needs to 
remain engaged in Asia for a long time to come.  The U.S. 
presence is important for stability; without stability, there 
can be no growth. 
HERBOLD