This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN JOSE 000131 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ETRD VE CS
SUBJECT: ARIAS AND PACHECO ON THE NEXT GOVERNMENT OF COSTA 
RICA 
 
REF: 05 SAN JOSE 2279 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Mark Langdale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
Summary 
-------- 
¶1.  (C) Both President Pacheco and Oscar Arias, frontrunner 
to be the next president, said in separate meetings with 
CODEL Burton that they expect a better political climate in 
Costa Rica after the February 5 elections.  Arias said that 
Costa Ricans have reason to be annoyed with the political 
class, a do-nothing government, and a fragmented legislature. 
 Pacheco, while defending his government's record, said that 
the current legislature was "the craziest in the world" but 
that the next one will be "more disciplined and intelligent." 
 Arias said that political parties in favor of the 
U.S.-Central American-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement 
(CAFTA-DR) will win at least 70 percent of the vote.  Arias 
criticized the USG for "unilaterist" positions on 
international issues like the Kyoto Protocol and 
International Criminal Court (ICC).  He said he hoped the USG 
would be "more supportive" of Latin America out of 
self-interest, if not morality.  Pacheco said Arias will be 
an "imperial" president with tight control over every aspect 
of governing, especially foreign affairs.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) During the visit of Representative Burton (R-IN) to 
Costa Rica January 10-12, he and Ambassador paid calls on 
President Abel Pacheco and former president Oscar Arias 
(1986-90), who is likely to be reelected on February 5.  The 
discussions focused on the elections and on what can be 
expected of the next government. 
 
Oscar Arias's Views 
------------------- 
¶3.  (C) Oscar Arias, accompanied by his running mate for 
first vice president, Laura Chinchilla, said the campaign was 
physically draining.  He said he was the target of attacks 
from all the other candidates because he supports CAFTA-DR 
and wants to do away with public monopolies.  Arias knew that 
Ambassador had visited Arias's principal opponent, Otton 
Solis, and probed Ambassador on his impressions of Solis and 
wanted to know what Solis had said about him (Arias). 
Ambassador skirted the question.  (Note:  In fact, Solis said 
Arias was corrupt, "probably" in league with 
narcotraffickers, and hated the United States.  See 05 San 
Jose 2930)  Arias told us that Solis was misleading voters by 
telling them that CAFTA-DR can be renegotiated.  Burton 
commented that renegotiation was out of the question, though 
"fine-tuning" of the treaty was possible after ratification. 
Moreover, Burton said Costa Rica will not continue to be 
eligible for benefits under the Caribbean Basin Initiative 
(CBI). 
 
¶4.  (C) Arias said that Costa Ricans have reason to be 
annoyed with the political class.  Former presidents are 
suspected of corruption, and the country has just lost four 
years with a do-nothing government and fragmented 
legislature.  Though confident of victory in the February 5 
elections, Arias pointed out that other Nobel 
Laureates--Mikhail Gorbachev and Lech Walesa--were rejected 
by voters.  He is urging voters not to split their vote, i.e. 
to vote both for him for president and for the National 
Liberation Party (PLN) list for the Legislative Assembly. 
Although he does not expect a PLN majority in the Assembly, 
he does expect pro-CAFTA-DR political parties to win at least 
70 percent of the vote.  Chinchilla noted that the fate of 
CAFTA-DR will be decided in the newly elected Assembly after 
May 1; the most the current Assembly can do is vote CAFTA-DR 
out of the International Relations and Trade Committee. 
(Note:  The chairman of that committee, Rolando Lacle, told 
us the same thing.  See San Jose 91)  Chinchilla added that 
Assembly rules do not permit closing out debate and that 
there were no shortcuts on ratification, which she doubted 
would be debated in the plenary before June or July.  She 
said there are currently 37 to 42 votes in favor of CAFTA-DR 
in the 57-member unicameral Assembly. 
 
¶5.  (C) Arias said he hoped the USG would be "more 
supportive" of Latin America out of self-interest, if not 
morality.  He said he had planned to send his brother Rodrigo 
to Washington after the election to seek funds from the 
Millennium Challenge Account.  Ambassador pointed out that 
those funds were for very poor countries and that Costa 
Rica's per capita income was well above the cutoff.  Arias 
responded that Costa Rica desperately needed to make 
investments in infrastructure and that, although the country 
has been "somewhat successful" economically, it "should not 
be punished" for that success. 
 
¶6.  (C) Arias criticized the USG for "unilateralist" 
positions on international issues like the Kyoto Protocol, 
the ICC, landmine bans, and non-proliferation.  (Note: 
Regarding the last, Arias was probably referring to his Arms 
Trade Treaty proposal, which he has been lobbying for around 
the world.)  He said these were "moral issues for the good of 
the world and for the good of everyone."  Ambassador 
responded that while we do not agree on everything, on the 
key issues in Costa Rica and the region--namely consolidating 
democracy and fighting poverty with more open economies--we 
do agree and can work together. 
 
President Pacheco's Views 
------------------------- 
¶7.  (C) President Pacheco, accompanied by Foreign Minister 
Roberto Tovar, and Ambassador to the United States Tomas 
Duenas, began the meeting by enumerating his government's 
accomplishments, including growth in Costa Rica's monetary 
reserves, declining infant mortality, and increased 
longevity.  He said that because of his careful, go-slow 
approach to CAFTA-DR ratification, now 70 percent of the 
population supports the treaty; before, according to Pacheco, 
80 percent were opposed.  (Note:  Embassy is not aware of any 
poll showing that at any time a majority of Costa Ricans were 
against CAFTA-DR.)  Pacheco nevertheless expressed relief 
that, in his words, there were only "117 days left" in his 
administration. 
 
¶8.  (C) Pacheco complained that his administration was 
hampered by constant attacks, many of which were from members 
of his own party, the Social Christian Unity Party (PUSC). 
He said that the legislature he had to work with was "the 
craziest in the world" and that the peculiar rules of the 
legislature allowed a small minority of deputies to block 
fiscal reform for nearly four years and counting.  He said it 
was unrealistic to expect much progress on CAFTA-DR in the 
Legislative Assembly this term because the deputies return 
from vacation only on February 6 and have less than three 
months left in their term, including Holy Week.  Pacheco was 
confident that there were sufficient votes in favor of 
CAFTA-DR and that there would be even more in the next 
Legislative Assembly.  He said the next set of legislators 
will be "more disciplined and intelligent." 
 
¶9.  (C)  Pacheco said that Arias will be an "imperial" 
president, not given to dialogue.  He said Arias has already 
burned his bridges to the public sector labor unions and 
"will need me (Pacheco) to keep the country from bursting 
into flames."  Pacheco said Arias will keep the reins tight 
over his ministers, especially the minister of foreign 
affairs.  Tovar said the rumors are that Bruno Stagno, a 
young Arias protege and currently Costa Rican Permrep in the 
UN, will head the MFA.  Tovar and Pacheco both said that 
Arias would be wise to keep Ambassador Duenas in Washington. 
Duenas denied hearing anything from the Arias camp, implying 
he might accept if asked. 
 
¶10.  (C) Representative Burton asked about any evidence of 
meddling by Hugo Chavez in Costa Rica.  Pacheco said he was 
certain Chavez was funding labor unions and spreading money 
around marginalized sectors of society, like indigenous 
groups.  As evidence, he cited a letter he received recently 
from a Talamanca Indian chief of southeastern Costa Rica, 
with the chief quoting from Simon Bolivar.  "What do the 
Talamanca people know about Bolivar?"  Pacheco asked. 
Pacheco said there were no signs of direct involvement by 
Chavez in the Costa Rican elections, but he would not be 
surprised to see Chavez supporting candidates in Nicaragua 
and Mexico. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶11. (C) We expect Pacheco's political career and influence to 
end the day he leaves office on May 8.  He is widely seen as 
a failure and the reason why his chosen successor, Ricardo 
Toledo, is polling under 5 percent.  Pacheco made a good 
point, however, about Arias's relationship with public sector 
labor unions--Arias wants to get rid of the public monopolies 
that are the source of the unions' strength.  This does not 
mean Arias will privatize; he will not.  Instead, he will 
gradually open up closed sectors of the economy like 
telecommunications, insurance, and the extraction, refining, 
and importing of hydrocarbons.  The unions see such an 
opening as the beginning of the end for the sweet deal they 
have enjoyed over many years.  The struggle between Arias and 
the unions will be bitter and hard fought. 
LANGDALE