This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ROME 000173 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2016 
TAGS: CVIS IT PGOV PREL ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS IRAQI FREEDOM ITALIAN POLITICS AFGHANISTAN UN
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER:  YOUR MEETING WITH ITALIAN FM FINI 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR RONALD P. SPOGLI, FOR REASONS 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) This meeting is an opportunity for FM Fini and the 
Berlusconi government to showcase Italian foreign policy 
successes in advance of April elections.  Fini will want to 
show the public that Italy's engagements abroad have advanced 
its national interests, enhanced its international standing, 
and earned America's respect.  The visit comes as those 
external commitments, especially in Iraq, face considerable 
domestic criticism and growing budgetary pressures.  They 
have also earned Italy the attention of international terror 
organizations like al-Qa'ida.  Even so, Fini has been a 
consistent advocate of activism, and recently adopted a very 
tough public line on Iran notwithstanding Italy's commercial 
stake there.  This all means the public aspects of the Fini 
visit will be very important.  The foreign minister will want 
public US recognition of Italy's contribution not only to 
security and stability in Iraq, but also in Afghanistan, the 
Balkans, and the global war on terror. 
 
¶2.  (C) Besides our public message, we should urge enhanced 
Italian contributions to training and democracy promotion in 
Iraq, welcome the prospect of an Italian-led PRT, and assure 
close coordination as we adjust troop levels.  It will be an 
opportunity to press Fini for a stepped-up investment in 
Afghan stability at the upcoming London conference.  He has 
flagged his interest in reviewing coordination of next steps 
in Kosovo and Serbia-Montenegro.  Other issues on his mind 
will include UN reform, how to work with Russia/Putin, and 
Italy's desire for more Italian candidates to encumber 
high-visibility international positions.  Fini doubles as 
deputy prime minister and sees himself as Prime Minister 
Berlusconi's political successor.  This trip will have the 
ancillary benefit, just ten weeks before elections, of 
burnishing his credentials as a future aspirant to the prime 
ministership and as an international player.  End Summary. 
 
 
Italian Elections 
----------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Italian elections are scheduled for April 9.  As head 
of the National Alliance Party, Fini is part of PM 
Berlusconi's Center-Right alliance, which is currently 
trailing slightly in the polls in a race that is at present 
too close to call.  Fini is increasingly seen as the 
Center-Right,s heir apparent, and is generally considered 
the number 2 figure in the Center-Right after the PM.  His 
visit to Washington will play significantly into his campaign 
effort back home. 
 
Strongest Ally in Continental Europe.... 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) As FM, Fini has presided over a period of 
unprecedented Italian leadership in foreign policy, and he 
will seek a statement of support on shared values for our 
freedom agenda and praise for Italy's substantial overseas 
engagements.  In addition to being the third largest 
contributor of troops to MFN-I, and leading three of four 
training modules in NTM-I, 
Italy also funds reconstruction projects in Iraq and is 
interested in leading a PRT there.  In Afghanistan, Italy 
currently commands ISAF and leads the Herat PRT and justice 
sector reform.  In the Balkans, Italy recently took over KFOR 
and EUFOR commands.  Rome pledged DOLS 3 million to the UN 
Fund for Democracy, indicated it will fund the new Foundation 
for the Future, co-hosts the Democracy Assistance Dialogue 
with Turkey and Yemen, and provided earthquake and hurricane 
relief for Pakistan and New Orleans. 
 
... without a Corresponding Policy Voice... 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (C) Despite Italy's record of foreign policy leadership 
under the Berlusconi Government, the Italians feel that they 
are not taken seriously as a first-tier European power, 
especially by their EU partners, and despite pulling more 
weight on some key international issues than either France or 
Germany (Iraq being a case in point).  Failure to gain EU and 
US support for the Italian candidates for High Representative 
in Bosnia and Vice-Chair of the OECD Working Group on Bribery 
in International Business Transactions has rankled in Rome. 
They see such support as concrete recognition that Italy,s 
investments abroad have advanced the country's interests, 
enhanced its prestige, and earned the respect of friends and 
allies. 
...and Increasing Budgetary Pressure 
------------------------------------- 
¶6.  (C) The pressure to show results is especially keen in 
view of Italy's budget pressures.  High public debt, the EU 
Stability and Growth Pact deficit ceiling, rising social 
welfare costs and a stagnant economy are limiting Fini's 
ability to continue to argue for an increased, or at the very 
least, sustained international presence in global hot spots. 
Failure to address economic reform will be this government's 
biggest domestic liability going into the elections and could 
allow the opposition to argue that Italy's overseas 
commitments are not in the financial interests of the 
country.  The current budget foresees a 27% reduction in 
overseas economic assistance, and large cuts (to about 0.90% 
of GDP) in the defense budget, including a 20% reduction in 
the peacekeeping budget. 
 
Terrorism 
--------- 
¶7. (C) One important constant has been Italy's steadfastness 
in the war against terror, especially law enforcement 
cooperation.  It worked closely with the UK in extraditing a 
suspect in the failed July 21, 2005 London bombing and with 
Spanish authorities in their investigation of the Madrid 
bombings.  Its role in Iraq and Afghanistan has earned it 
threats by Al-Qa,ida on the eve of next month's 2006 Winter 
Olympics in Turin and national elections in April.  It has 
established an inter-Ministerial Financial Security Committee 
(FSC).  And while it lacks a national law that allows the 
unilateral freezing of assets of terrorist groups and 
individuals, Italy is second only to the United States in the 
number of names contributed to the UNSC 1267 Committee for 
asset freeze.  A law before Parliament would approve a 
mechanism for freezing non-financial assets of terrorists, 
which would be a welcome, precedent-setting event within the 
EU. 
 
Iraq 
---- 
 
¶8. (C) The GOI,s most controversial position is support for 
the US-led coalition in Iraq.  The center-left opposition has 
capitalized on the domestic unpopularity of the war to 
advance its election campaign.  Fini will want to show the 
wisdom of the GOI decision to support the U.S. in Iraq.  He 
and PM Berlusconi speak in terms of a "strategy for success" 
in Iraq, and they will seek by this visit to reassure the 
Italian public that the U.S. considers Italy a key partner in 
establishing stability and security.  We should urge enhanced 
Italian contributions to training and democracy promotion, 
welcome the prospect of an Italian-led PRT, and promise close 
coordination as we adjust troop levels.  On January 19 the 
US, UK and Italy will have held trilateral meetings on Iraq 
in Rome. 
 
Iran 
---- 
 
¶9. (C) The GOI shares U.S. and EU concern over Iran's nuclear 
aspirations and the anti-Israel rhetoric coming out of 
Tehran.  Both Fini and Berlusconi issued sharp public 
rejoinders after President Ahmadinejad's declarations against 
Israel.  Fini warned Iran it could not divide the 
international community on the nuclear issue.  But Italy has 
been restive about its exclusion from the EU3 negotiations 
with Iran because, as Iran's largest trading partner in 
Europe, it feels has a significant role to play in 
influencing Tehran.  According to the Italian press, he 
suggested injecting EU High Rep for Foreign Policy Solana 
into EU talks, not only to to give them more weight, but also 
to end the EU-3,s monopoly.  We should commend Fini's public 
stance, and reinforce with him the importance of maintaining 
a solid international front. 
 
Afghanistan 
----------- 
 
¶10. (C) Fini's visit comes just a week ahead of the 
Afghanistan Compact conference in London.   Unlike Iraq, 
Italy's ISAF participation enjoys bipartisan political 
support, and the MFA has fenced off economic assistance to 
Afghanistan from cuts falling heavily elsewhere.  That said, 
even with a smaller pie, Fini could probably do more to 
increase Italy's contribution to the post-Bonn reconstruction 
process.  As Deputy Prime Minister, he is reluctant to 
advocate strongly for the foreign ministry in interagency 
negotiations over resources.  Special Afghan Envoy Anna della 
Croce thinks only a direct U.S. appeal to Fini for more 
assistance could induce additional Italian funding at the 
London conference.  Also, Italy feels its commitment in 
Afghanistan should merit a seat on the Afghanistan 
coordinating Council. 
 
Balkans 
------- 
 
¶11. (C) The Italians have been engaged in peacekeeping and 
stability efforts in the former Yugoslavia since the early 
1990s.  They consider the Western Balkans their backyard and 
insist on playing a major military and policy role.  They 
currently hold the command of KFOR and EUFOR.  Their recent 
unsuccessful attempt to place an Italian as High 
Representative in Bosnia was seen by the GOI as an indication 
that neither the major EU powers nor the U.S. have sufficient 
faith in the GOI to lead the international community in the 
region.  Fini flagged in his recent letter to you his 
interest in reviewing his recent visit to Kosovo and 
Serbia-Montenegro.  He sees a need for a common international 
approach regarding next steps in Kosovo. 
 
Syria/Lebanon 
------------- 
 
¶12. (C) Italy has acquiesced to our requests to refrain from 
engaging in high-level meetings with Syrian officials, twice 
canceling planned visits of President Assad.  However, MFA 
officials continue to stress that, as a country with strong 
ties and a good relationship with Syria, Italy can play a 
useful role in sending the Syrians strong messages and 
showing them that it is the international community -- and 
not just the U.S. -- that is pushing for full compliance with 
UNSCR 1559.  Italy pushed hard to be a member of the "Core 
Group" on Lebanon, as Lebanon's largest trading partner and 
biggest source of aid. 
 
Middle East 
----------- 
 
¶13. (C) In a successful effort to overcome the stigma of his 
party's fascist history, Fini has made four trips to Israel 
in three years.  Under the Berlusconi government, Italy has 
taken a much more balanced approach to the Arab-Israeli 
conflict and has worked for the EU to do the same.  During 
its 2003 Presidency, Italy successful led the EU to designate 
Hamas as a terrorist organization, and it has been vocal in 
its opposition to anti-Israel resolutions in the UN.  This 
has not only improved relations with Israel but engendered 
more Italian engagement.  PM Berlusconi continues to advocate 
a "Marshall Plan" for the Palestinian territories and has 
offered to host resumed Israeli-Palestinian negotiations in 
Erice (Sicily).  Italy provided one of its most senior 
Carabinieri officers to lead EU monitoring of the Gaza border 
crossing at Rafah.  Fini will want to review the situation in 
Gaza, and hear US views on next steps in the peace process 
and the outlook for post-Sharon Israel. 
 
UN Reform 
--------- 
 
¶14. (C) On UN Reform, Italy has made our agenda its agenda, 
vocally and with Fini's strong support.  Although the UNSC 
expansion debate has cooled for now, the possibility of 
Germany  eventually obtaining a permanent seat is still a 
major concern for Italy.  The Berlusconi government sees this 
as a matter of national dignity.  In a world where the UK, 
France and Germany all sat at the UNSC table, Italy feels it 
would be permanently relegated as a second-class EU power. 
The GOI therefore regularly seeks assurances that we do not 
support a permanent UNSC seat for Germany, and requests that 
we keep 
Italy apprised of developments in our views on UNSC reform. 
 
Transatlantic Relations/NATO/Russia 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶15. (C) Fini is a firm believer in the transatlantic link; 
his own pro-Americanism is reflected by the close ties 
between his Allianza Nazionale party and the Republican Party 
in the US.  Fini,s views on NATO accord with ours: he 
supports Alliance transformation, out of area deployment, and 
enhanced political consultations among Allies.  Fini will be 
glad to discuss ways the US and Italy can work together to 
make NATO more effective.  NATO enlargement to Albania, 
Macedonia and Croatia is an Italian priority; Italy very much 
wants those countries to be offered NATO membership in 2008 
and will be receptive to suggestions as to how Italy might 
help secure that result, as well as to ideas to encourage 
those three aspirants to continue taking the steps needed to 
qualify.  The NATO-Russia Council was established in Rome in 
2002, and the Italians believe that closer working relations 
between Russia and the Alliance are essential for European 
security and stability.  PM Berlusconi feels he has a special 
relationship with President Putin.  Your meeting with Fini is 
an opportunity to tell Italy what the US thinks about how 
best to manage Russian misbehavior and to encourage Russia to 
improve. 
SPOGLI