VZCZCXRO5103
RR RUEHQU
DE RUEHPU #0124/01 0182000
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 182000Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY PORT AU PRINCE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2096
INFO RUEHZH/HAITI COLLECTIVE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0904
RUEHWN/AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN 1455
RUEHKG/AMEMBASSY KINGSTON 1940
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 2407
RUEHBH/AMEMBASSY NASSAU 2637
RUEHSP/AMEMBASSY PORT OF SPAIN 1593
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 0738
RUEHDG/AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO 0325
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0237
RUEHQU/AMCONSUL QUEBEC 0351
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J2 MIAMI FL
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0786

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PORT AU PRINCE 000124 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR 
DRL 
S/CRS 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR 
INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA) 
TREASURY FOR JEFFREY LEVINE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PKAO HA
SUBJECT: HAITI ELECTIONS: FEBRUARY 7 ON TRACK, WITH BUMPS 
IN THE ROAD 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: MINUSTAH and OAS officials in a January 13 
meeting with donors explained that while some significant 
problems need to be resolved, the February 7 first round is 
technically possible.  Political party complaints about the 
number of voting centers and voting center assignments have 
increased in recent weeks, as has pressure to finalize the 
location of voting centers for the violent Port-au-Prince 
slum of Cite Soleil.  According to the Provisional Electoral 
Council (CEP) and MINUSTAH, most voting center problems 
should be fixed by January 18, and all remaining problems, 
including Cite Soleil voting centers, must be solved by 
January 25 in order to maintain the February 7 first round. 
MINUSTAH worried that continued CEP and interim government 
plans to transmit results by satellite (VSAT) could 
jeopardize the credibility of elections results because the 
VSAT results would not be monitored by the international 
community.  The OAS estimated January 17 that it had 
distributed 2.6 million ID cards.  OAS chief Elizabeth Spehar 
reiterated, however, that in order to maximize voter 
participation and minimize claims of exclusion, the CEP and 
interim government must allow voting with registration 
receipts.  MINUSTAH logistics chief Colonel Barry MacLeod 
plans to conduct a mock election on January 28 to test 
procedures.  The exercise will include distribution of 
elections materials, ballot collection, and a test of the 
MINUSTAH tabulation center.  According to MINUSTAH elections 
chief Gerard Lechevallier, MINUSTAH faces a budget shortfall 
of USD 500,000 to conduct the first and second rounds of 
national elections,  but does not have sufficient resources 
to conduct local elections, currently planned for April.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Voting Centers 
----------------------- 
 
CEP General Director Jacques Bernard said January 6 that the 
CEP must settle all issues relating to voting centers by 
January 25, allowing MINUSTAH Electoral Task Force Head 
Colonel MacLeod sufficient time to assure security and 
delivery of election materials to each voting center. 
MacLeod reported January 13 that MINUSTAH and the CEP would 
fix nearly all of voting center problems by January 18 and 
would identify remaining issues by January 20, which it would 
fix by January 25. 
 
Bernard has decided to locate all Cite Soleil voting centers 
on the periphery of the slum in order to better ensure 
security.  MacLeod said on January 13 that he awaited the CEP 
and MINUSTAH selection of these locations to finalize 
logistics planning.  MINUSTAH elections chief Gerard 
Lechevallier countered locating the centers outside of Cite 
Soleil could spark violent protest and claims of exclusion by 
the international press.  He said MINUSTAH would wait one or 
two weeks and then attempt to open card distribution and 
prepare for voting in Cite Soleil.  However, MacLeod argued 
that MINUSTAH must accept that it does not control Cite 
Soleil and concentrate on voting outside the slum as the only 
feasible solution. 
 
Key Dates 
 
January 20: All voting center problems identified 
January 25: Voting center problems (including Cite Soleil) 
addressed 
 
Comment: Political parties have shifted their elections 
criticisms from the ID card distribution to voting centers. 
Though the parties make general accusations that voting 
center problems are widespread, none have cited more than 
anecdotal evidence of problems.  Because MINUSTAH logistics 
 
PORT AU PR 00000124  002 OF 004 
 
 
needs time to integrate new voting centers into its logistics 
plan, Lechevallier does not have time to wait two weeks to 
see if MINUSTAH can secure Cite Soleil.  Some radio stations 
in Port-au-Prince are discussing voting outside Cite Soleil, 
but MINUSTAH and the CEP should publicly announce their 
decision to keep voting outside of Cite Soleil and clearly 
and transparently explain their reasoning to distrustful Cite 
Soleil residents and the skeptical international press.  End 
Comment. 
 
¶3. (SBU) VSAT and Tabulation 
---------------------------- 
 
Bernard reported January 6 that the Minister of the Interior 
claims to have distributed satellite (VSAT) antennas to all 
of the BECs for results transmission.  However, the BECs lack 
electricity and computers to run the VSAT system and CEP 
president Max Mathurin wrote a letter January 11 to the UNDP 
asking that the UN repair generators at the BECs and provide 
computers for the VSAT system.  UNDP said the UN would not 
financially support the VSAT system because it believed the 
project too costly and likely to fail, as it did in 
Venezuela, Afghanistan, and Canada.  Canadian elections 
expert Francois Montour said he believed if the VSAT system 
is finished it could be used to alter or invalidate the 
results of the election. 
 
Comment: Though donors and UN agree the VSAT system should be 
stopped, they lamented that it is Haitian funded, and there 
is little the international community can do apart from 
withholding its own money.  However, in a January 10 draft of 
a letter to Minister of Interior Paul Magloire, the CEP 
outlined its plan to implement the system, which relied on 
international money and technical assistance.  Nonetheless, a 
Canadian diplomat said Canada plans to make every effort to 
stop the system so that it cannot taint election results. 
End Comment. 
 
¶4. (SBU) ID Distribution Progresses, Voting without IDs Still 
Key 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
Though the OAS said January 13 it has the capacity to 
distribute up to 340,000 cards per day, card distribution is 
going more slowly than anticipated, roughly 100,000 cards are 
distributed per day.  MINUSTAH projected January 17 that 2.6 
million of the 3.5 million total ID cards had been 
distributed, but said that because of reporting delays from 
the field they can only confirm 2.4 million.  The OAS plans 
to close card distribution January 21, and reopen it from the 
communal election bureaus (BECs) January 25.  However, OAS 
elections chief Elizabeth Spehar said January 13 that the CEP 
had not yet agreed to the plan to continue distribution from 
the BECs. 
 
Though ID cards are now in Haiti, Spehar cautioned that some 
voters would inevitably fail to retrieve their cards.  She 
said voters must be able to vote with their receipts. 
MINUSTAH reported that the poll worker-training program 
anticipates voting with receipts.  However, while voting with 
registration receipts is already technically legal, losing 
political parties would likely exploit ambiguities in the law 
to contest results if receipt voting is widespread.  CEP DG 
Bernard has drafted an amendment to the electoral law making 
it absolutely clear that voting with registration receipts is 
legal.  The IGOH should promulgate the amendment in order to 
avoid confusion and prevent contestation. 
 
Key Dates: 
 
 
PORT AU PR 00000124  003 OF 004 
 
 
January 21: End of ID Distribution Extension 
January 22 - 24: Undistributed IDs to BECs 
January 25: Card distribution reopens in BECs 
February 6: Card distribution closes in BECs 
 
Comment: Card distribution is well in hand and has ceased to 
be the focus of election complaints.  Maintaining 
distribution at the BECs should help voters to get the last 
cards out and prevent criticism that some voters could not 
retrieve their IDs.  Nonetheless, in order to ensure maximum 
participation, voters must be allowed to vote even if they 
have not picked up their IDs.  After card distribution has 
closed, post will push the IGOH to clarify the legality of 
voting with receipts.  End Comment. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Election Dry Run Will Test Logistics 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
MINUSTAH elections Electoral Task Force Head Colonel MacLeod 
reported that MINUSTAH would use the distribution of 
non-sensitive material to test the logistics system in late 
January.  During the test, MINUSTAH will distribute the 
non-sensitive material along with mock sensitive material. 
It will then run an election with Muppet character 
candidates, collect the ballot boxes, and test the results 
transmission and counting systems.  MacLeod said he would 
attempt to complete the test run and fix any logistics 
problems with the system before any sensitive material is 
sent to the voting centers. 
 
Key Dates: 
 
January 16 - 25: Sensitive Material to MINUSTAH Departmental 
Military Compounds 
January 28 - 29: Test of Elections Logistics 
January 30 - February 5: Non-sensitive material to voting 
centers 
February 5 - 7: Sensitive material to voting centers 
 
Comment: While MacLeod's test run is important and 
necessarily short given the elections timetable, compressing 
it into two days is overly optimistic.  In the same meeting 
that MacLeod presented his plan, MINUSTAH elections chief 
Lechevallier warned that it could take three to five days for 
all elections results to arrive in Port-au-Prince because 
some results might have to travel by donkey from otherwise 
inaccessible areas.  MINUSTAH must be careful not to let 
their test interfere with the election timetable, but should 
nevertheless use the demonstration to raise expectations 
about the security of the vote while lowering them about the 
speed of results transmission.  End Comment. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Election Budget Okay for First and Second Rounds 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
MINUSTAH elections chief Lechevallier reported that with no 
additional changes, the first and second rounds, including 
the delay to February 7, would cost USD 59.6 million and that 
MINUSTAH had received USD 59.1 million leaving a USD 500,000 
shortfall.  However, Gerardo said privately that he continues 
to juggle money because MINUSTAH plans to hire more guards, 
people for crowd control, and civic education workers.  He 
also said he is trying to keep some money aside in case the 
CEP decides to fold municipal elections into the second 
round.  He said local elections would cost an additional USD 
13.6 million. 
 
Comment: Privately, MINUSTAH contacts tell us they do not 
believe local elections are possible.  MINUSTAH has no money 
for local elections and though the problems with voting 
 
PORT AU PR 00000124  004 OF 004 
 
 
centers are passable for the national contest, voting center 
assignments would require a complete overhaul for the local 
elections.  Local elections will likely be indefinitely 
postponed for budgetary and logistical reasons.  Post 
recommends the mayoral election be included with the second 
round in order to preserve local independence from the 
executive and promote democratic state decentralization.  End 
Comment. 
 
CARNEY