VZCZCXRO9050
OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #0194/01 0231542
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 231542Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1194
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/HQ USNORTHCOM  IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/JCS WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEAHLC/HOMELAND SECURITY CENTER WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000194
SIPDIS
NOFORN
SIPDIS
FOR THE SECRETARY FROM AMBASSADOR WILKINS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL CA
SUBJECT: CANADA'S NEW GOVERNMENT: OPPORTUNITIES AND
CHALLENGES
Classified By: AMBASSADOR DAVID WILKINS, REASONS 1.4 (B) (D)
¶1. (C/NF) Summary: Unless the polls are badly mistaken,
Canada's Conservatives will win today's election and Stephen
Harper will be asked by the Governor General to form a
minority government. The election of a new government, after
thirteen years of Liberal rule, presents opportunities for
advancing U.S. interests in such areas as law enforcement and
continental security, and in developing Canada as a more
useful partner in the Hemisphere and around the globe.
However, managing the bilateral relationship with an
inexperienced, inherently weak minority government also poses
challenges and calls for some soft treading. End Summary
¶2. (C/NF) Assuming that the polls are right and he falls
short of a Parliamentary majority, Harper will know that the
Conservative hold on power will be tenuous. The Tory seat
total will allow them to form government, but the combined
forces of the opposition (Liberal, Bloc Quebecois and NDP)
could cause the Conservatives to fall at virtually any time.
The Conservatives also have no natural allies among the three
opposition parties, so Harper's government will have to take
things one issue, and one week, at a time. Significantly,
the socially liberal core values of the opposition are more
in line with most Canadians than the minority Conservatives,
weakening their mandate even further. Working in the
Conservative's favor, however, and giving them a bit of
operating space, is the fact that the Liberals will need to
switch leaders, and the Bloc may have hit its high-water
mark, so no one will want to see an election too soon. But
fairly early in 2007 the Conservatives know that the
political sharks will start to circle in earnest. The last
Tory minority government lasted eight months, and we could
easily see another election within a year.
¶3. (C/NF) Given a relatively weak mandate and tenuous hold on
power, Harper will move deliberately but cautiously to get a
few successes under his belt before doing anything even
remotely bold. His first initiatives will likely deal with
the core issues he was elected to improve -- corruption and
accountability -- for which he can gain widespread
Parliamentary and popular support. This will allow him to
test the waters in Parliament and get his team organized
before moving on to areas that may spark controversy.
¶4. (C/NF) Relations with the U.S. will be tricky for Harper,
who along with many members of his caucus has an ideological
and cultural affinity for America. But as he has done
already with many of his core social and fiscal values, he
will simply have to sideline this affinity in order to not be
painted as "selling out to the Americans" to a skeptical
Canadian public. I know Harper will be warm and cordial in
his dealings with the U.S., but he also has to demonstrate
that he has the ability to advance Canada's interests with
Washington, and he may feel compelled to step back from
gestures that could be construed as a close embrace. I would
also note that, unlike Martin, Harper has very little foreign
experience; he will tend to focus, at least initially, on
bilateral issues closer to home such as softwood lumber and
the border.
¶5. (C/NF) That said, I see a real opportunity for us to
advance our agenda with the new government. I recommend
Qadvance our agenda with the new government. I recommend
early on that we look for an opportunity to give Harper a
bilateral success story by resolving an irritant such as the
Devil's Lake filter system or entering into good faith
negotiations to reach a solution on softwood lumber. Press
reports here indicate a growing willingness across Canada to
get back to the table. Early success on a bilateral issue
will bolster Harper and allow him to take a more pro-American
position publicly without as much political risk.
¶6. (C/NF) Another area where the new government will seek
engagement will undoubtedly be border security. Finding a
few high-profile SPP-type deliverables to improve cross
border movement of goods and services would help our image
here as well as shore up Harper's credentials. Laying this
groundwork would then open the way for progress on
cross-border law enforcement initiatives of interest to us,
such as enhanced information-sharing, joint maritime
operations, and more robust counter-narcotics efforts.
¶7. (C/NF) On other issues, Harper is committed to increasing
spending on the armed forces and will do so, making the
Canadian Armed Forces a more capable and deployable force; we
have little to contribute to this debate and should stay out
OTTAWA 00000194 002 OF 002
of it. He has also suggested that the missile defense
decision could be re-examined, but I strongly recommend
letting him define to us what this means and only then
respond to it. With regards to our transformational agenda,
there will be numerous opportunities for engagement.
However, I suggest quietly working such cooperation with the
new government through official, non-public channels, and
that we focus on a handful of priority areas -- keeping
Canada in the game in Afghanistan as the mission turns more
difficult and possibly more bloody; continuing to work
together to keep the pressure on Iran; increasing support to
the new government in Haiti, possibly even taking on more of
a leadership role there; following through with good
governance and economic assistance to the new Iraqi
government; working closely with us and other partners on
Sudan; and engaging more actively in other hemispheric
trouble spots such as Venezuela, Colombia, and Cuba. We're
going to be recommending senior level visits and
consultations on foreign policy issues to help bring Harper
and his new, generally inexperienced team into the fold as
more useful partners.
¶8. (C/NF) In short, I see both opportunities and challenges
in the coming year in this bilateral relationship, and I look
forward to helping connect the dots with the new government
so we can effectively advance our agenda.
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa
WILKINS
=======================CABLE ENDS============================