Tim W Hayes  01/23/2008 02:01:51 PM  From  DB/Inbox:  Search Results

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C O N F I D E N T I A L        NICOSIA 00024

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INFO RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 4479
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000024 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2020 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM CY
SUBJECT: "OSMOSIS" AND THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS:  IT'S ALL 
GREEK TO ME 
 
REF: NICOSIA 2024 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ronald L. Schlicher; Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  Turkish Cypriots fear that the Greek 
Cypriot side is increasingly disinterested in a bizonal, 
bicommunal federal solution to the Cyprus problem, and is 
intent on simply absorbing Turkish Cypriots into the ROC 
through a process of "osmosis."  Buoyed by the confidence and 
real leverage that comes with EU membership, Turkish Cypriots 
see the current Greek Cypriot leadership as committed to 
undoing the long-standing consensus on federalism and 
pursuing a unitary, centralized state in which Turkish 
Cypriots would be afforded limited, minority rights. 
Scholarships, ROC passports, free health care, and trade with 
and through the south are understood as "Trojan carrots" 
intended as bait to co-opt a desperate Turkish Cypriot 
public.  While President Papadopoulos did, in fact, use the 
term "osmosis" in his last address to the UNGA, this word 
seems at least as reflective of Turkish Cypriot anxieties as 
it does of Greek Cypriot policies.  Even paranoids have 
enemies, however, and there is a long history on this island 
of the Greek Cypriot majority whittling away at rights and 
privileges for the Turkish Cypriots that they had previously 
accepted.  Moreover, there are many on the Greek Cypriot side 
who have fixated on the idea of a "European solution" to the 
Cyprus problem that bears more than a passing resemblance to 
the Turkish Cypriots' understanding of "osmosis."  Partly as 
a consequence of this and more directly as a result of the 
perceived failure by the EU to keep its promises on easing 
Turkish Cypriot isolation, the Union's standing and 
credibility in the north has eroded considerably. End 
Summary. 
 
Greek 101:  The Genesis of Osmosis...a Study in Hubris 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  Increasingly, Turkish Cypriot fears that Greek 
Cypriots are implacably intent on exercising dominion over 
the entire island without resort to a bizonal, bicommunal 
compromise have crystallized around a single Greek word: 
"osmosis."  In his introductory calls on the Turkish Cypriot 
leadership, Ambassador Schlicher heard this same phraseology 
from both "President" Talat and "Foreign Minister" Denktash 
(reftel).  Anxiety over "osmosis" is also cropping up 
regularly in our conversations with Turkish Cypriot 
academics, journalists and various political strap-hangers. 
From the Turkish Cypriot perspective, "The Osmotic Solution" 
(which sounds like either the title for a Robert Ludlum novel 
or a New Wave band from the 80s) represents an affirmative 
policy choice on the part of the Greek Cypriot leadership -- 
and in particular President Papadopoulos -- to force Turkish 
Cypriots to accommodate themselves to ROC authority and Greek 
Cypriot dominance. 
 
¶3.  (C) In this view, EU membership has so strengthened the 
Greek Cypriot hand vis-a-vis both the north and Ankara that 
the leadership in the south no longer feels constrained by 
the 30-year-old mantra of bicommunal, bizonal federation. 
Over time, the Turkish Cypriots argue, the Greek Cypriots 
believe they can co-opt and absorb Turkish Cypriots through 
economic hegemonism and the strategic use of "Trojan carrots" 
(our terms, not theirs) such as EU passports, ROC-controlled 
EU scholarships, subsidized tuition at Greek Cypriot private 
schools, and managed opportunities for trade with and through 
the south.  Greek Cypriot insistence on maintaining the 
political and economic isolation of the north are understood 
by Turkish Cypriots as an effort to close down other outlets 
and force Turkish Cypriots to engage with the outside world 
through the "semi-permeable membrane" of the buffer zone.  As 
an added benefit for the Greek Cypriots, Turkish "settlers" 
are barred from sharing in the spoils of ROC statehood. 
Enticing the Turkish Cypriot elite to participate more fully 
in ROC-controlled programs is one more tool available to the 
Greek Cypriots to differentiate the Turkish Cypriots from 
Turkish settlers and at least slow the creeping 
legitimization of the settler community. 
 
¶4.  (C)  The genesis of "osmosis" as the new term of art in 
political circles in the north is evidently the last sentence 
of Papadopoulos' speech to the 60th UNGA in New York last 
September.  The Cypriot President told delegates "we also 
visualize that, with Cyprus' membership to the European Union 
taking solid roots, a settlement would encompass an 
integration of the currently occupied area to the 
characteristics of a European society and the standards of 
the acquis communautaire in full harmony and osmosis with the 
rest of the island."  This sentence is no less awkward or 
ambiguous in the original Greek.  "Osmosis" has not been a 
significant word in the Greek Cypriot lexicon.  In fact, the 
President's UNGA speech is the only reference we can find to 
a senior Greek Cypriot political figure actually using that 
word publicly. 
 
Even Paranoids Have Enemies 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  Although this single and ambiguous reference to 
"osmosis" seems like rather thin gruel to outsiders, it 
resonates with the Turkish Cypriots' understanding of their 
own history.  The Turkish Cypriots can point to numerous 
Greek Cypriot actions since the founding of the Republic 
aimed at ensuring the long-term political and economic 
dominance of the vastly larger Greek Cypriot community.  From 
the very beginning, Turkish Cypriots argue, Greek Cypriots 
looked at their community as a threat that they needed to 
both contain and dominate.  Early on in the brief history of 
the ROC, Greek Cypriots refused to allow Turkish Cypriots to 
establish separate municipalities in the five major cities -- 
a right they theoretically enjoyed under the constitution -- 
arguing that these entities would be too small to be 
economically viable.  The thirteen changes to the 
constitution that Archbishop Makarios introduced in 1963 were 
pegged to "functionality," but seemed clearly designed to 
strengthen Greek Cypriot control of the state at the expense 
of Turkish Cypriot autonomy.  The proposal included abolition 
of veto powers at the executive level, eliminating the 
requirement for separate majorities in adopting legislation 
in key areas, and reducing the proportion of Turkish Cypriots 
employed in the public sector. 
 
¶6.  (C) It is relatively easy to draw a straight line from 
Makarios' thirteen points -- which ultimately precipitated 
the political crisis and intercommunal violence that led the 
UNSC to establish the UNFICYP mission in 1964 -- to 
Papadopoulos' April 2004 speech rejecting the Annan Plan as 
an acceptable solution to the Cyprus problem.  A few quotes 
from that speech are instructive: 
 
-- "The Annan Plan does not lead to the reunification of the 
two communities, but on the contrary promotes the permanent 
division with restrictions on movement, settlement, the right 
to acquire property, the exercise of political rights and 
other divisive elements." 
 
-- "(Under the Annan Plan) a separate economy was imposed in 
the end.  There will be no common monetary or fiscal policy 
and no investments by Greek Cypriot businesses shall be 
allowed in the Turkish Cypriot constituent state." 
 
-- "(With the Annan Plan) the goal of the Turkish Cypriot 
side for two peoples, with two states living separately and 
simply cooperating is fully achieved." 
 
¶7.  (C) Since 2004, the rhetoric of the Papadopoulos 
administration has continued to fuel Turkish Cypriot fears 
that the Greek Cypriot objections to the Annan Plan in 
reality represent a back-door rejection of the long-standing 
consensus goal of bizonal, bicommunal federation. In an 
interview with the influential daily Phileleftheros in 
November, the President's Diplomatic Advisor, Tasos Tzionis, 
sharply criticized both the framework of the Annan Plan 
negotiations and the plan's underlying philosophy.  Although 
Tzionis stressed that this represented simply his "personal 
views," Turkish Cypriots are convinced that this interview 
was a deliberate attempt to nudge the settlement goal post 
back in the direction of an "osmotic," unitary state. 
 
The EU as Villain 
----------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) Greek Cypriots do not talk about "osmosis," but many 
talk about their hopes for a "European Solution" to the 
Cyprus problem.  Greek Cypriots are attracted in particular 
to the acquis' four freedoms concerning the movement of 
goods, people, capital and services.  Not coincidentally, 
those advocating a European Solution are also chief among 
those who argue that the EU should have a significantly 
greater voice in future Cyprus negotiations.  Some, but by no 
means a majority, are prepared to say that the EU rather than 
UN should have primary responsibility for the negotiating 
process.  Turkish Cypriots understand the talk of a "European 
Solution" -- correctly in our view -- as code for a unitary 
state with majority rule and very limited minority rights for 
Turkish Cypriots.  This is anathema for the leadership in the 
north.  The Turkish Cypriots' greatest fear is that the Greek 
Cypriots are not (and, in fact, may never have been) serious 
about a bizonal, bicommunal federal solution, but rather 
intend to hold out for a controlling stake in any new state 
that might emerge from negotiations. 
 
¶9.  (C) Meanwhile, the EU is sinking ever lower in Turkish 
Cypriot estimations.  The recent fiasco over the aid and 
trade packages highlights what Turkish Cypriots see as the 
EU's failure to deliver on its commitments.  Among the 25, 
Turkish Cypriots see only the UK as serious about easing 
Turkish Cypriot isolation.  The majority of member states are 
seen as disinterested at best and, at worst, slavishly 
deferential to GOC prerogatives on the Cyprus issue.  The 
decision to appoint a Greek Cypriot to head up the European 
Commission Office on Cyprus has further undermined both the 
standing and credibility of the EU in Turkish Cypriot eyes. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (C) Webster's defines "osmosis" as "a gradual, often 
unconscious process of absorption."  It may be more useful, 
therefore, to think about osmosis in the Cyprus context as a 
description of what Turkish Cypriots fear is happening to 
their community rather than a deliberate and fully-conscious 
Greek Cypriot policy. EU membership has made the carrots 
available to the ROC significantly more enticing.  Many 
Turkish Cypriots seem prepared to compromise on certain 
principles if the reward is great enough and the cost 
seemingly small.  Most Turkish Cypriots, for example, have 
taken the plunge and applied for ROC passports.  Rauf 
Denktash once said that Turkish Cypriots who took this step 
were traitors to their own people.  Now, his own grandson has 
a ROC passport.  Each Turkish Cypriot will draw the line of 
accommodation in a different place.  Some will use the 
hospitals in the south, but not the schools.  Others will 
exercise the right to a passport but not the right to vote. 
The fear of at least some in the north is that this will 
prove a slippery slope and that taking the first step may 
make it easier, over time, for Turkish Cypriots to accept 
greater GOC control over their affairs. 
SCHLICHER