This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NASSAU 000061 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR WBENT AND INR/B 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAIR BF
SUBJECT: PM PREDICTS PLP ELECTION WIN, LAMENTS AIRPORT 
PROBLEMS AND DISCUSSES HIS STROKE 
 
REF: A. 05 NASSAU 1952 
     ¶B. NASSAU 58 
 
Classified By: CDA D.BRENT HARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Prime Minster Perry Christie in a January 5 
meeting with the Ambassador confidently predicted that his 
Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) would win the elections he 
must call no later than May 2007 unless the Government makes 
some big mistakes between now and then.  Christie also 
commented on the continuing problems at Nassau International 
Airport, lamenting that the government had not been informed 
of radar problems that shut air traffic down for several days 
during Christmas week, and that steps to address problems had 
been inadequate.  Christie attributed the rebound from his 
May 2005 stroke to his having followed doctor,s orders to 
rest and resume duties slowly.  He now again finds himself 
overworked, however, and admitted he needed to restructure 
his office to support him more effectively.  He hinted that a 
cabinet shuffle was in the works, and would be announced in 
the near future.   End Summary. 
 
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Christie Predicts PLP Victory 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) The Ambassador called on Prime Minister Perry 
Christie January 5 to deliver the President,s holiday 
greetings and review issues on the bilateral agenda at the 
start of the New Year.  Christie, in a relaxed and expansive 
mood, predicted that his Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) 
would win the elections he must call no later than May 2007, 
which are likely later this year or in early 2007.  He said 
that the PLP,s populist roots as the party that led The 
Bahamas to majority rule give it a built-in advantage over 
the opposition Free National Movement (FNM), which had 
originally been the party of the predominantly white merchant 
class.  He said the party,s base was a solid 51 percent of 
the electorate, barring major discontent with its actions. 
"Unless we mess up in a big way," Christie said, "we will win 
the elections."  He suggested that the FNM had taken power in 
the 1990,s only after corruption scandals in PLP founder Sir 
Lynden Pindling's government had become so widespread that 
people became turned off. 
 
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Race and Politics 
----------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Following the FNM,s election of a white Deputy 
Leader earlier this year (Ref A) and PLP convention remarks 
that sought to link this choice to the FNM,s merchant class 
origins, the PLP had received criticism for injecting race 
into Bahamian politics.  Christie, who broached the issue 
with the Ambassador, denied that race was a major issue in 
The Bahamas or that it would be an issue in the campaign. 
Outside of older Bahamians who may retain memories of past 
injustice, most Bahamians today, he argued, do not spend much 
time thinking about issues of race.  Despite the differing 
origins of the parties, Christie said that today there were 
no major ideological or policy differences between the two 
major parties.  The primary issue for the electorate, he 
believed, was which party could manage the country more 
effectively.  "Obviously," he said, "I think that is us." 
 
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Airport Delays and Problems of Governing 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C)  Christie lamented to the Ambassador a recent failure 
of the radar at Nassau International Airport during Christmas 
week -- one of the busiest travel times of the year  -- a 
failure that lasted nearly five days because of poor 
management at the airport authority and generated 
considerable anger from frustrated passengers.  He claimed 
that the government had not initially been informed of the 
problem, and that the quasi-governmental airport authority 
had bungled the repair effort.  He noted that an urgently 
needed part had been driven from Oklahoma rather than being 
flown directly, and that the technicians needed to install 
the part had not been notified in time to arrive with the 
part, and were ultimately left languishing at a private 
airport when they arrived.  Christie said this case was 
typical of the frustrations he encountered in trying to 
govern The Bahamas. 
 
¶5. (C)  Christie also asked the Ambassador about reports of 
delays at the airport arising from an alleged recommendation 
by the head of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection's 
Pre-Clearance Unit not to open a second security checkpoint. 
The Ambassador told him that on the contrary, CBP had been 
fully staffed at 5:00 AM and we had urged the Airport 
Authorities to open additional checkpoints at that time as 
well, but they were not operational until mid-morning until 
lines had built up.  Telephone calls to the airport and 
customs confirmed our assessment of the cause of the delays. 
Christie and the Ambassador also reviewed proposed changes to 
the Transportation Security Administration's (TSA) local 
security procedures, with the Ambassador pointing out that we 
would agree to a reconfiguration that would expedite 
travelers on the condition that a number of tighter security 
arrangements were put in  place.  The Ambassador noted that 
improving airport management would be vital to our ability to 
move forward.  Christie said the government recognized that 
the airport needed better management, and said the 
long-awaited award of a management contract to a Canadian 
company, YVR, was nearly finalized.  He was expecting a final 
contract from the company that day, and he hoped to announce 
the deal in the days ahead. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Cabinet Shuffle Likely in Election Run-Up 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Christie told the Ambassador he would be making some 
Cabinet changes in the months ahead to move out some poorly 
performing ministers and bring in some better performers.  He 
also indicated that he would be looking to bring in some 
extra help to his office in the form of a chief of staff. 
With the political season heating up, Christie said he was 
being approached by so many people for political favors on 
top of all the issues that ended up on his plate that he was 
looking to hire a chief of staff to keep track of commitments 
and ensure follow-up.  He complained that too many issues 
ended up on his desk because ministers were reluctant to take 
decisions in their area of purview.  This applied to the 
issue of the Cuban detainees (Ref B), which he normally 
expects the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to deal with without 
his becoming involved. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Rebounded from Stroke, but Taking on Too Much 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) In the context of Israeli Prime Minister Sharon,s 
second stroke, Christie observed that his own stroke in May 
2005 had been very similar to that suffered by Sharon. 
Unlike Sharon, however, he did not initially resume activity. 
 On doctor's orders, he withdrew from major activity for 
three months, and only slowly returned to active public life 
in the subsequent three months.  He noted that during that 
period, even though he felt fine most of the time, he would 
be suddenly overcome by exhaustion.  Unfortunately, he had 
just passed through a busy political season with his party's 
convention in November and the year-end Junkanoo festivals, 
and the year ahead was likely to be even busier.  He was 
diligently attempting to pace himself, but it was not proving 
easy to do so. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (C) Christie has clearly reemerged as a dominant 
political force following his stroke, and is gearing up for 
what he knows will be a close, hard-fought election battle 
with his friend and former law partner, former FNM Prime 
Minister Hubert Ingraham.  Christie's political weakness has 
been a widespread popular perception of indecisiveness. 
Christie knows this and no doubt hopes that the awarding of 
an airport management contract and a reshuffle of the cabinet 
-- which has been rumored for two years -- will signal his 
willingness to bite the bullet and make tough decisions.  He 
continues to welcome a close partnership with the United 
States and greatly appreciates the extensive support we 
provide the Bahamas through OPBAT and training of law 
enforcement personnel.  The opposition FNM sees itself as the 
more friendly party toward the U.S., however, and could 
attempt to use the PLP's cultivation of ties with China and 
Cuba to make "management of relations with the U.S." a wedge 
issue in the coming campaign.  End comment. 
 
HARDT