VZCZCXRO8007
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHMOS
DE RUEHKU #0184/01 0211542
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 211542Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2587
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 000184 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, NSC FOR RAMCHAND , LONDON FOR TSOU, 
PARIS FOR ZEYA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KU SUCCESSION
SUBJECT: ONGOING INTRA-RULING FAMILY NEGOTIATIONS ON 
SUCCESSION; PRIME MINISTER RUMOURED LIKELY NEW AMIR 
 
REF: KUWAIT 97 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary and comment.  Members of the ruling Al-Sabah 
family have been meeting continuously over the past three 
days to negotiate distribution of power after the death of 
Amir Shaykh Jaber on January 15.  Constitutionally, Crown 
Prince Shaykh Saad automatically became Amir, though his very 
poor health and questions about his ability to take the 
constitutionally-required two-sentence oath to assume the 
position have fueled speculation he will soon be replaced. 
On January 21, the Council of Ministers, after convening an 
emergency session, reportedly asked the National Assembly to 
invoke Article 3 of the Succession Law, which provides for 
removal of the Amir for health reasons.  According to local 
media reports and embassy contacts, sixty ruling family 
members met on January 20 and agreed in principle on an 
arrangement whereby Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmed 
Al-Jaber Al-Sabah would become the new Amir, Foreign Minister 
Shaykh Dr. Mohammed the new Crown Prince, and Interior 
Minister Shaykh Nawaf the new Prime Minister.  Countering 
what increasingly seems to be the majority view, National 
Guard Chief Shaykh Salem Al-Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah, claiming 
to speak for the Amir, insisted Shaykh Saad would take the 
Amiri oath before a special session of Parliament on January 
¶22.  The appointment of Shaykh Sabah as Amir would merely 
formalize the power he has exercised for the past five years 
and would have little, if any, impact on government policy. 
As reported reftel, succession is likely to have a greater 
impact on distribution of power within the Council of 
Ministers.  While rumors about succession abound, Kuwaitis 
agree on the need for a smooth transition of power; few, if 
any, would object to Shaykh Sabah becoming Amir, once that 
decision is made by the ruling family.  Due both to the 
40-day mourning period and the leadership discussions, the 
GOK has advised all diplomatic missions that it will not 
receive official visits until the end of the mourning period. 
 End summary and comment. 
 
Succession Referred to National Assembly 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Local media reported January 21 that the Council of 
Ministers, after meeting in an emergency session, sent a 
letter to the National Assembly asking it to invoke Article 3 
of the Succession Law.  Article 3 reads, "For the Amir to 
exercise his constitutional powers, he shall not lose any of 
the terms which shall be met by the Heir Apparent (Crown 
Prince).  In the event he loses any of these terms or loses 
the health ability to exercise his powers, the Council of 
Ministers - after verification - shall refer the matter to 
the National Assembly to be immediately considered in a 
special closed-door session.  If it is categorically proven 
to the National Assembly that he has lost the aforementioned 
terms or health ability, the National Assembly shall decide, 
by a two-thirds majority of its members (43 votes), to 
transfer the exercising of the powers of Amir to the Heir 
Apparent temporarily or permanently." 
 
¶3.  (C) "Amir-designate" Shaykh Saad is reportedly insisting 
on taking the Amiri oath before the National Assembly on 
January 22, and has requested a ruling family meeting on 
January 21 to discuss the issue.  (Comment: Shaykh Saad,s 
poor health makes it highly unlikely that he is making these 
decisions.  End comment.)  Sources suggest that ruling family 
members are not responding to "his" request. 
 
Majority of Ruling Family Backs Shaykh Sabah 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Sixty Al-Sabah family members, including the late 
Amir's sons, met the Prime Minister at his private residence, 
Dar Salwa, on the evening of January 20 to publicly express 
their support for his leadership.  On January 21, under the 
headline, "Shaykh Sabah Takes Charge," the English-daily 
Kuwait Times reported that the Prime Minister had "agreed to 
lead the country" after being requested to do so by ruling 
family members during the January 20 meeting.  The article 
also reported that controversial National Guard Chief Shaykh 
Salem Al-Ali, claiming to speak "on behalf of the new Amir," 
said Shaykh Saad would "take the constitutional oath before 
Parliament" this week, apparently contradicting the majority 
consensus among ruling family members. 
 
¶5.  (C) Ambassador Waleed Ali Al-Khubaizi, Director of the 
Protocol Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told 
the Ambassador on January 21 that during the January 20 
meeting, ruling family members had agreed in principle on an 
 
KUWAIT 00000184  002 OF 003 
 
 
arrangement in which Shaykh Sabah, currently Prime Minister, 
would become Amir; Shaykh Dr. Mohammed Al-Salem Al-Sabah, 
currently Foreign Minister, would become Crown Prince; and 
Shaykh Nawaf Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, currently Deputy 
Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, would become Prime 
Minister.  Shaykh Salem Al-Ali's statements, however, have 
temporarily prevented moves to implement the arrangement, 
which even Shaykh Salem Al-Ali,s eldest sons supported, he 
said.  Al-Khubaizi further noted that Shaykh Sabah does not 
want to be seen as forcing the abdication of Shaykh Saad and 
indicated there could be an agreed upon period - he mentioned 
eight days - for Shaykh Saad to remain Amir before being 
replaced.  Al-Khubaizi believed Shaykh Salem Al-Ali,s 
comments had only further isolated him and represented only a 
minority within the ruling family.  If appointed Amir, Shaykh 
Sabah would have one year to name a Crown Prince. 
 
¶6.  (C) In a January 20 meeting with visiting CODEL 
Ros-Lehtinen, Dr. Nasser Al-Sane, a moderate Islamist member 
of Parliament, confirmed "almost all" ruling family members 
had agreed to back Shaykh Sabah as the next Amir.  According 
to Al-Sane, the influence of the "minority" within the ruling 
family, led by Shaykh Salem Al-Ali, that opposes Shaykh Sabah 
becoming Amir is weakening.  He noted that several prominent 
members of the Al-Salem branch of the Al-Sabah family had 
publicly expressed their support for Shaykh Sabah by 
attending the January 20 meeting.  Al-Sane expected a 
decision on succession to be announced shortly. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Among the prominent Al-Sabah family members who 
attended the January 20 meeting were: 
 
From the Al-Salem branch: 
-  Foreign Minister Shaykh Dr. Mohammed Sabah Al-Salem 
Al-Sabah; 
-  Shaykh Fahad Al-Salem Al-Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah, the former 
Vice Chairman of the Authority of Agriculture and Fisheries 
Affairs and the son of controversial National Guard Chief 
Shaykh Salem Al-Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah; 
-  Shaykh Dr. Ali Al-Salem Al-Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah, former 
Minister of Communications and the son of Shaykh Salem Al-Ali; 
-  Shaykh Sabah Jaber Al-Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah, Chairman of 
the Public Ports Authority; 
-  Shaykh Salem Al-Sabah Al-Salem Al-Sabah, Chairman of the 
National Committee on Missing and POWs, former Minister of 
Foreign Affairs, and former Minister of Interior; 
 
From the Al-Jaber branch: 
-  Shaykh Nawaf Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah, Deputy Prime Minister and 
Minister of Interior; 
-  Shaykh Jaber Al-Mubarak Al-Hamad Al-Sabah, Minister of 
Defense; 
-  Shaykh Ahmed Al-Fahd Al-Sabah, Minister of Energy; 
-  Shaykh Mohammed Al-Abdullah Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah, Head of 
the Citizens, Services and Governmental Bodies Assessment 
Agency; 
-  Shaykh Nasser Mohammed Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, 
Minister of Amiri Diwan Affairs; 
-  Shaykh Jaber Al-Abdullah Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, Advisor at the 
Amiri Diwan; 
-  Shaykh Ali Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah, Governor of Jahra and 
a son of the late Amir Shaykh Jaber; 
 
Al-Sabah not from two main branches: 
-  Shaykh Ibrahim Al-Duaij Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, Governor of 
Farwaniya; 
-  Shaykh Rasheed Al-Humoud Al-Sabah, Coordinator of the 
Ruling Family Council; 
-  Shaykh Khaled Abdullah Sabah Al-Nasser Al-Sabah, 
Undersecretary for Protocol and Amiri Chamberlain Affairs at 
the Amiri Diwan; 
-  Shaykh Duaij Al-Malek Al-Sabah, Undersecretary for Social 
and Labor Affairs; and 
-  Shaykh Mohammed Al-Mohammed Al-Sabah, Head of the Council 
of Minister's Legal Advice and Legislation Department. 
 
Notably absent from the meeting were Shaykh Salem Al-Ali, 
Chief of the National Guard; Shaykh Mishal Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah, 
Deputy National Guard Commander and half-brother of the late 
Amir; Shaykh Mohammed Al-Khaled Al-Sabah, former Minister of 
Interior; Shaykh Mishal Al-Jarrah Al-Sabah, former State 
Security Chief; and Shaykh Hamad Jaber Al-Ali, Director of 
the (former) Crown Prince's Diwan. 
 
Role of the National Assembly 
----------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) Al-Khubaizi and Al-Sane both said the National 
Assembly would have to approve Shaykh Saad's removal (unless 
 
KUWAIT 00000184  003 OF 003 
 
 
he voluntarily abdicates) and the appointment of Shaykh Sabah 
as Amir, per Article 4 of the Constitution and Articles 3 and 
4 of the Succession Law.  The focus on Al-Sabah family 
meetings, however, suggests that there is little doubt where 
the real decision will be made.  One possible result of this 
situation is that parliamentary approval of Shaykh Sabah as 
Amir might set a precedence of that could lay the foundation 
for a constitutional-emirate arrangement in Kuwait. 
 
Support for Smooth Transition 
----------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) Despite the wild rumors, Kuwaitis agree on the need 
for a smooth power transition.  Succession uncertainty was at 
least partly responsible for a drop in the Kuwaiti stock 
market on January 21, business leaders assert.  They, and 
most others in the country, strongly support a quick, smooth 
succession and have no interest in prolonging the current 
state of uncertainty.  Therefore, there is likely to be 
little, if any, opposition to Shaykh Sabah becoming Amir once 
the ruling family agrees to fully back him.  Contacts have 
told us that the process is slow because Shaykh Sabah does 
not wish to be seen as having pushed aside the ailing, but 
respected Shaykh Saad, rather seeking as broad a consensus as 
possible in the Al-Sabah family for the leadership transition. 
 
Impact of Succession on Cabinet Posts 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (C) As post reported previously (reftel), Shaykh Sabah's 
elevation to Amir would have a significant impact on 
distribution of power in the Cabinet.  If Shaykh Dr. Mohammed 
were appointed Crown Prince and Shaykh Nawaf Prime Minister 
as is rumored likely, the Foreign Minister and Interior 
Minister position would need to be filled.  Some speculate 
the appointments could coincide with a Cabinet re-shuffle and 
that, in addition to the promotion of Shaykh Dr. Mohammed and 
Shaykh Nawaf, the Minister of Education and the Minister of 
Health, both of whom have been heavily criticized by 
parliamentarians recently, might also be replaced.  Without a 
crystal ball, it is difficult to predict that ultimate 
outcome of any Cabinet re-shuffle.  Post will continue to 
closely monitor developments both at the senior and Cabinet 
levels. 
 
********************************************* 
Visit Embassy Kuwait's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website 
********************************************* 
LeBaron