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DE RUEHJM #0345/01 0251419
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O 251419Z JAN 06
FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9919
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 000345 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MUSTAFA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS KDEM KPAL KWBG IS
SUBJECT: PALESTINIAN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS: ELECTION DAY 
SITREP # 3 AS OF 2:30 PM, JANUARY 25, 2006 
 
REF: A. JERUSALEM 340 
 
     ¶B. JERUSALEM 338 
     ¶C. JERUSALEM 00324 
 
Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) As of 2:30 pm local time, PLC elections continued to 
go smoothly with 45 percent voter turnout in both the West 
Bank and Gaza Strip after seven and a half hours of voting. 
CEC Chairman Hanna Nasser estimated that voter turnout would 
be 75-80 percent by the end of the day and predicted that 
polls would be kept open another two hours.  He said that 
ballot counting should be completed 12 hours after polls 
closed.  Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki expected Fatah 
to win the elections by 47 percent.  While most polling 
stations were calm in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the 
atmosphere was more tense where parties were allowed to 
campaign outside the polling stations.  Several unconfirmed 
security incidents were reported in the Gaza Strip, including 
two shootings and a hand grenade detonated in a polling 
station.  All the major pan-Arab stations and Palestinian 
stations continued running non-stop coverage of the 
elections, broadcasting from various polling stations in the 
West Bank and Gaza Strip.  Coverage of East Jerusalem has 
been limited to the Salah Ed-Din Post Office polling station. 
 End summary. 
 
ELECTIONS CONTINUE TO GO SMOOTHLY 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) By mid-day, voter turnout in Ramallah approached 50 
percent of eligible voters.  National Democratic Institute 
(NDI) observers expected voter participation in Ramallah to 
be between 85-90 percent by the end of the day.  Hamidei 
Bilal of the United Nations Office of Coordination for 
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Gaza told PolOff that voter 
turnout in the Gaza Strip had been high and relatively 
peaceful.  Deputy Finance Minister Jihad al-Wazir related to 
EconChief that everything was quiet and orderly in his 
neighborhood of Gaza City where he had voted. 
 
¶3.  (C) PolChief visited two polling sites in Bethlehem where 
thirty percent of the vote was in.  He described the 
atmosphere there as peaceful and festive but noted the large 
number of security service members at the polling sites.  He 
said political party agents were standing outside the sites 
handing out party literature.  The Central Elections 
Commission (CEC) manager for the Bethlehem District reported 
that everything was going fine and that he did not anticipate 
any problems. 
 
CEC CHAIRMAN: ELECTIONS 
PROCEEDING AS PLANNED 
----------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Senator Joseph Biden (D-DE) and the Consul General 
met with CEC Chairman Hanna Nasser who said elections were 
proceeding according to the framework of the agreement and 
stressed that these elections would mean a major change in 
the political landscape and that "people will have to accept 
it."  Nasser remarked that there had been a tremendous 
in-flow of voters throughout the day and that he estimated 
voter turnout would be 75-80 percent by the end of the day. 
He added that 92 percent of Palestinian Authority Security 
Force (PASF) personnel had already voted.  Nasser said that 
he did not expect exit polls to close until 9:00 pm (an 
extension of two hours) and that ballots would be counted 
within 12 hours, by Thursday morning.  He stated that ballot 
counters will want to take their time in order to avoid 
errors since, in many cases, the winner will be determined by 
20-30 votes. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) At 2:30 pm, the CEC reported 517,000 had voted in 
the West Bank and Gaza Strip, about 45 percent of the 
eligible electorate.  47 percent of eligible voters in the 
Gaza Strip had voted, and 41 percent in the West Bank. 
 
CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC EARLY SHIKAKI 
POLL ON ELECTION OUTCOME FOR FATAH 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Pollster Khalil Shikaki told Senator Biden and the 
Consul General, in a separate meeting, that he expected Fatah 
to win more votes than Hamas and estimated that Fatah would 
carry 47 percent of the vote, though he hoped that  Fatah 
 
would get at least 51 percent of the vote.  According to 
Shikaki, the worst case scenario would be for Fatah to 
receive 45 percent of the vote (with a 3 percent margin of 
error).  Shikaki commented that he did not think the outcome 
of the elections would have an adverse impact on the peace 
process.  However, he noted that the outcome could constrain 
President Abbas' choices. 
 
CARTER: NO IRREGULARITIES OBSERVED 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Former President Carter visited two polling 
stations in East Jerusalem earlier this morning and then 
traveled outside the Jerusalem municipality to an al-'Izariya 
(Bethany) polling station where he held a press conference. 
He then moved on to visit several polling stations in the 
Hebron area.  According to the USAIDOff traveling with him, 
he and his observer party did not notice any irregularities 
at those stations. 
 
VOTING SITE PROBLEMS 
-------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) PolOff reported that the Mughtarbi al-Bireh School 
polling site, north of Ramallah, has been the tensest site 
visited so far in Ramallah.  A large number of Fatah Tanzim 
members had stood near the front door of the site with a 
number of Hamas members nearby.  PA security personnel there 
were tense and had tried to quickly clear out the parking 
lot.  At other sites in Ramallah, plain-clothes security 
personnel were observed inside a few of the polling stations. 
 Fatah/Hamas tensions continued to be evident outside several 
polling stations where they had been allowed to campaign. 
While both Hamas and Fatah had transportation to polling 
sites organized for supporters, the Hamas motorpool appeared 
more organized. 
 
SECURITY INCIDENTS 
------------------ 
 
¶9.  (C) The RSO received an unconfirmed report at 12:45 pm 
that an al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade member had shot a Hamas 
member in Khan Younis in the Gaza Strip.  A later unconfirmed 
report from the IDF stated that an al-Aqsa member in Beit 
Hanoun in the Gaza Strip had shot and killed a Hamas member. 
The RSO also relayed an unconfirmed report that, in Gaza 
City, a hand grenade had been thrown into a polling place, 
but there were no reports of injuries.  Neither the PA Police 
Control Room nor the President's Control Room had heard of 
these incidents when asked by the RSO.  RSO reported at 1:45 
pm that 500 al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade members, of whom 100 were 
armed, marched for an hour, without incident, Khan Younis in 
support of Faruq Qaddumi, who is not running for election, 
and against Muhammad Dahlan, who is running in Khan Younis. 
 
¶10.  (C) At 2:30 pm, the RSO received a report that an 
al-Aqsa member had tried to enter a Rafah polling station 
with his gun and was turned away.  A similar incident was 
reported at another polling place in Rafah, this time with a 
Hamas member attempting to enter with a gun.  He, too, was 
turned back.  The 15 women members of Hamas detained earlier 
by Palestinian police for attempting to vote twice were 
reportedly released. 
 
MEDIA REPORTS 
------------- 
 
¶11.   (SBU)  All the major pan-Arab stations and Palestinian 
stations continued to run non-stop coverage of the 
Palestinian elections.  All media outlets continue to 
broadcast from various polling stations in the West Bank and 
Gaza and to carry interviews with candidates, officials, and 
voters.  In all cases, coverage of voting in East Jerusalem 
has been limited to broadcasts only from the Salah Ed-din 
Post Office polling station.  (Note: Nile News carried an 
interview with a scholar from Al Quds University, who claimed 
Palestinian media outlets were prohibited from covering 
elections inside Jerusalem.  End note.) 
 
-- Al-Arabiya carried a special live interview with Prime 
Minister Ahmed Quraya', who said he had been prevented by 
Israeli security forces from entering Jerusalem to visit 
voting centers.  He urged all Palestinians in Jerusalem to 
vote. 
 
-- Al-Arabiya later aired a statement by President Mahmoud 
Abbas, in which he characterized the voting process as 
smooth.  He expected all stations to close by 7 pm, as large 
numbers of eligible voters had already cast their ballots. 
 
(Note: Both al-Hurra and PBC estimated that 30 percent of 
voters had already visited polling stations.  End note.) 
Al-Arabiya reported it would have preliminary election 
results starting at 7 pm.  Al-Arabiya also hosted a heated 
debate between Fatah-affiliated PLO Chief Negotiator Sa'eb 
Erakat and Hamas leader Zahhar on corruption. 
 
-- PBC replayed President Abbas' January 24 address to the 
Palestinian people encouraging them to vote in the elections. 
 In addition to on-location reports and interviews, PBC 
continues to carry images of Palestinians voting accompanied 
by national songs encouraging people to vote in the 
elections.  PBC also reported that large numbers of 
Palestinian women have been voting. 
 
-- Al-Hurra reported that a polling station in Jenin had to 
close for three hours after a member of the Islamic Jihad 
members tried to vote. 
 
-- In interviews with Palestinians outside a polling station 
in East Jerusalem, the al-Hurra reporter spoke with both 
Palestinians who have chosen not to vote, as they oppose 
elections on the grounds that Jerusalem is occupied, and 
Palestinians who see the elections as a way to strengthen the 
Palestinian claim to Jerusalem. 
 
-- The official Egyptian station, Nile News, also carried 
continuous coverage of the Palestinian elections. 
WALLES