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O 231555Z JAN 06
FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9842
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 000286 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MUSTAFA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG PBTS IS KPAL KDEM
SUBJECT: PALESTINIAN LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL ELECTIONS SITREP 
#10: JANUARY 23, 2006: FEW REPORTED PROBLEMS WITH PA 
SECURITY FORCES VOTING 
 
Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1.    (C) Summary. Voting by Palestinian Authority (PA) 
security forces continued for a third and final day, January 
23, with turnout reported around 82 percent of registered 
voters at the conclusion of the second day of voting.  ConGen 
contacts expect final turnout over 90 percent of registered 
security forces personnel.  While Palestinian contacts 
reported some problems, including a Palestinian who on 
January 22 attempted to enter a polling station in Rafah with 
hand grenades and several Hamas complaints about voting 
irregularities, the process has proceeded without serious 
disruption.  PLO Chief Negotiator Sa'eb Erekat reported to 
the Consul General that Election Day modalities for the West 
Bank and Gaza Strip have been finalized with Israel.  Both 
Erekat and PLC candidate Muhammad Dahlan expected a tight 
finish between Fatah and Hamas.  "Third Way" candidate Salam 
Fayyad expects a positive showing for his national slate. 
End summary. 
 
Few Reported Problems With 
PA Security Forces Voting 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2.    (C) PA Security Forces (PASF) voting, which commenced 
January 21, has proceeded with few serious incidents of 
disruption.  By midday January 21, the CEC reported turnout 
at approximately 22 percent.  By midday of January 22, the 
CEC reported that approximately 30,000 PASF personnel (about 
50 percent) had cast ballots.  By the end of the second day 
of voting on January 22, turnout was reported at 
approximately 82 percent of all registered PASF personnel, 
with a final day of balloting scheduled on January 23. 
(Note: The NSF commander in Ramallah January 21 filed a 
request with the CEC that 335 officers serving in the West 
Bank, but registered in Gaza, be allowed to vote in the West 
Bank.  The CEC has yet to respond positively to this request. 
 End note.)  The PASF had reportedly secured all polling 
stations, with no few serious problems.  (Note: PA police 
confirmed January 22 that security personnel arrested a 
Palestinian who attempted to enter a polling station in Rafah 
while holding hand grenades.  End note.) 
 
¶3.    (C) There were some reports of voting irregularities, 
including PASF personnel claiming illiteracy to polling 
station workers and requesting assistance from a third party, 
typically another member of the PASF.  Hamas on January 22 
filed complaints with the CEC requesting that voter 
registration lists be posted at entrances to polling 
stations, which the PASF opposed.  As a compromise, the CEC 
decided to allow representatives of each of the factions an 
opportunity to view the lists at the polling stations.  Hamas 
also lodged a complaint that PASF were instructed and 
intimated to vote for Fatah candidates. 
 
Erekat: Modalities For 
Elections Completed 
---------------------- 
 
¶4.    (C) PLO Chief Negotiator and PLC candidate Sa'eb Erekat 
January 21 told the Consul General that voting for the PASF 
was proceeding smoothly.  Erekat reported that he and the CEC 
held a good meeting with Israeli General Mishlev on January 
20 where they concluded all details regarding election 
modalities for the West Bank and Gaza Strip.  The IDF agreed 
to facilitate the movement of ballot material and election 
workers and would ease up on "flying" checkpoints.  Israeli 
police in Jerusalem January 22 arrested a Hamas district 
candidate, a PFLP candidate running on its national list, and 
seven other activists who were caught putting up campaign 
paraphernalia.  On the elections, Erekat expected a close 
race to the finish between Fatah and Hamas.  (Comment: This 
assessment is notable, as Erekat has previously predicted a 
solid Fatah victory in the elections.  End comment.) 
 
Fayyad: Reasonable 
Showing For "Third Way" 
----------------------- 
 
¶5.    (C) "Third Way" candidate Salam Fayyad confirmed to the 
Consul General January 21 that his campaign manager in Gaza, 
Ghazi Shabiyya, was shot in the stomach after reportedly 
being lured to a scheduled meeting.  According to Palestinian 
contacts, Shabiyya's injuries were not critical.  Fayyad said 
that he wasn't certain if the shooting represented an 
isolated incident or was an indication of something more 
serious related to his campaign.  Fayyad confirmed, however, 
that there was significant intimidation of "Third Way" 
 
 
activists in the Northern West Bank.  On the campaign itself, 
Fayyad said that the underlying trend for the "Third Way" was 
positive, and he expected a "reasonable" showing.  (Note: A 
new poll from Khalil Shikaki reported "Third Way" polling at 
three percent, behind Mustafa Barghouthi's "Independent 
Palestine" (five percent), Hamas (35 percent), and Fatah (42 
percent).  End note.) 
 
Dahlan More Confident About 
Fatah Prospects in Gaza 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6.    (C) During a January 22 telecon with the Consul 
General, Gaza PLC candidate Muhammad Dahlan said that he was 
more optimistic about Fatah's chances in Rafah and Khan 
Yunis.  He reported that he has concentrated his efforts in 
those two districts, adding that he has conducted 
approximately 10 rallies per day, with turnout anywhere 
between 1,000 to 20,000 people at each event.  Dahlan said 
that he was also optimistic that Fatah would win one to two 
seats in the North Gaza (Jabaliyah) district.  Efforts were 
still ongoing to get independent Fatah-affiliated candidates 
to withdraw from the district races.  (Note: In response to 
interventions from senior Fatah officials, several 
independent Fatah candidates dropped out of the district 
races over the weekend, including PLC members Muhammad 
Hourani (Hebron) and Ahmad al-Batsh (Jerusalem). 
Approximately 40 of the 142 Fatah independents have 
officially withdrawn.  End note.) 
 
Summary of Local 
Press Coverage 
---------------- 
 
¶7.    (SBU) The main story January 23 in the main three 
Palestinian dailies focused on statements from jailed West 
Bank Fatah leader and PLC candidate Marwan Barghuti, who 
called for "intensive participation" in the PLC elections. 
In an interview with al-Jazeera, Barghuti's first since being 
imprisoned, he asserted that Fatah was still able to lead the 
Palestinian people to freedom and independence. 
 
-- The dailies also featured statements from PA President 
Mahmud Abbas, who urged all Palestinians to exercise their 
right to vote and reiterated that the PASF would cooperate 
fully with the CEC to prevent elections violations. 
 
-- Al-Quds carried the results of a public opinion poll 
conducted by the Palestinian Center for Political and Survey 
Research which predicted that 42 percent would vote for 
Fatah, while approximately 35 percent would vote for the 
Hamas slate, "Reform and Change". 
 
-- Al-Ayyam on January 21 led with a report Gaza Hamas leader 
and PLC candidate Mahmud Zahar said that Hamas will seek, 
after winning the legislative elections, to re-formulate 
Palestinian society in all areas in accordance with Islam and 
that it will move the government away from corruption, chaos, 
bribery, and patronage. 
 
Op-eds: 
 
-- Ashraf Ajrami wrote in Al-Ayyam that as Palestinians 
prepare to vote, they must consider the choices they are 
making so that they don't fall in a dangerous situation. 
Talal Okal wrote in Al-Ayyam that on the eve of elections, 
everyone is keeping an eye on whether and how Hamas will 
participate in the political process. 
 
-- Salah Sobani wrote in al-Quds that Hamas' main support 
stems from an increasingly religious public and the lack of 
any positive political horizon, including an end to the 
occupation. 
 
-- Ali A'war opined in al-Quds that since Hamas is now a 
major player in the Palestinian national movement, it is 
obliged to present a clear political program to meet the 
aspiration of the Palestinian people. 
 
WALLES