VZCZCXRO6905
PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHHO #0036/01 0310348
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 310348Z JAN 06
FM AMCONSUL HERMOSILLO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1254
INFO RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO PRIORITY 0364
RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHHO/AMCONSUL HERMOSILLO 1614

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HERMOSILLO 000036 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/MEX; EMBASSY MEXICO FOR POL, ECON, MCCA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EINV ENRG SNAR MX
SUBJECT: PRD AND "ALTERNATIVA" PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES CAMPAIGN IN 
SONORA 
 
HERMOSILLO 00000036  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  PRD presidential candidate Lopez Obrador made 
his first official campaign swing through Sonora state January 
¶27.  His visit culminated in political rally in Hermosillo, 
which was well attended, but not as large as claimed.  He made 
32 promises to Sonoran voters - local media focused on his plan 
to free up the Mexican Army to fight organized drug trafficking, 
which he identified as a "notorious" problem in Sonora. 
"Alternativa" presidential candidate Patricia Mercado also 
campaigned in Sonora, successfully devoting most of her time to 
media interviews, and a meeting with a small University of 
Sonora (UNISON) group.  Relations with the U.S. did not figure 
largely in the campaigning of either candidate, although both 
mentioned immigration policy and their desire for good relations 
with the United States.  End Summary. 
 
AMLO'S PROMISES TO SONORA 
 
¶2. (U) Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), presidential 
candidate of the Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD), 
campaigned in Sonora state on January 27.  He visited Cananea, 
but the key event was a rally in Hermosillo.  In an hour-long 
speech before an enthusiastic crowd in the state capital, AMLO 
made 32 promises to the people of Sonora that he said he would 
implement if elected President.  He publicly signed the list to 
wrap up the speech.  Local media focused on AMLO's statement 
that the presence of narcotics-related organized crime in Sonora 
was "evident and notorious," and on his promise to seek changes 
in the Constitution so that the Mexican Army could be more 
involved in fighting drug trafficking. 
 
SEEKS MUTUAL RESPECT AND COOPERATION WITH THE U.S. 
 
¶3. (U) AMLO's only direct reference in his stump speech to the 
United States was to a plan to convert the 45 Mexican consulates 
in the U.S. into centers of "legal protection" for Mexicans 
living and working there.  In an earlier press interview, 
however, he said that he would try to reduce immigration to the 
U.S. by reviving the Mexican economy.  He stressed that he was 
not anti-business, and that one of his priorities would be to 
help businesses to generate jobs and avoid bankruptcy.  He also 
said he would propose an agreement of "mutual respect and 
cooperation" to the U.S. government and, separately, discuss how 
to bring about legalization of the status of millions of 
Mexicans who were working in the U.S. out of necessity.  One 
promise in AMLO's speech which was among the most applauded was 
that he will ensure construction of a high-speed "bullet" train 
from Mexico City to Nogales. 
 
¶4. (U) Other successful applause lines AMLO used in his 
Hermosillo speech included promises to reduce gasoline and 
electricity prices, to guarantee minimum wages that stayed ahead 
of inflation, and to provide monthly food allowances and special 
pensions for the elderly and the handicapped.  His ideas for 
financing these programs included tough anti-corruption 
enforcement, a reduction in the overall size of government, 
cutting the salaries of ministers and senior bureaucrats, and 
adjusting the terms paid on the national debt.  AMLO said he 
would restructure the tax system radically and even abolish the 
term "tax".  He expressed confidence that Mexicans, once they 
saw how fair the new system was, would be happy to pay 
"contributions." 
 
SIZE MATTERS? 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Experienced observers said that AMLO drew as large a 
crowd in Hermosillo as Vicente Fox did in the last presidential 
campaign.  The PRD organizers claimed attendance of ten 
thousand, and this figure was repeated by Imparcial, 
Hermosillo's leading newspaper, which also identified the 
majority of participants as students.  Other local newspapers, 
while giving AMLO prominent and largely uncritical coverage, put 
the crowd size at four and a half thousand.  Consulate officials 
who covered the political gathering do not believe that more 
than two and a half thousand people were present, most arriving 
on 21 buses bearing "delegations" from locations around Sonora. 
Most participants - although clearly enthusiastic about the 
candidate - appeared to be largely middle-aged agriculture and 
maquila workers and their families who were brought in for the 
event. 
 
PATRICIA MERCADO, "ALTERNATIVA" CANDIDATE ALSO IN SONORA 
 
¶6. (U) Patricia Mercado Castro, presidential candidate of the 
new, small "Alternativa" Social Democratic and Rural Party 
(PASC), also campaigned in Sonora, visiting Hermosillo, Obregon 
and Magdalena.  She concentrated on media interviews, spending 
the entire morning of January 27 in the Hermosillo Sanborn 
restaurant giving one-on-one time to radio and print 
 
HERMOSILLO 00000036  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
journalists, talking to local PASC organizers, and greeting 
members of the public who approached her.  Mercado Castro later 
met with the Rector of the University of Sonora and had a 
detailed exchange with a group of about 150 UNISON students and 
faculty for 90 minutes. 
 
OPENING ENERGY SECTOR TO "MIXED" INVESTMENT AND OTHER IDEAS 
 
¶7. (U) Mercado Castro said that Mexico is "decaying" and is in 
urgent need of reforms, including giving priority to education, 
science and technology, ending family violence, and fighting 
narcotics trafficking and violence.  On this last, she said the 
current approach of the Mexican government to fighting narcotics 
was "ineffective and obsolete," and unfairly penalized poor 
cultivators and consumers.  She expressed support for 
legalization of "bland" drugs like marijuana (but definitely not 
cocaine or amphetamines).  Other themes she discussed were 
support for families, women, and gay marriage and her opposition 
to economic monopolies, public and private.  She said that she 
would open up the oil, gas and electric sectors to "mixed" 
investment, and would back construction of infrastructure in 
rural Mexico in order to connect small towns and field workers 
to the wider world. 
 
¶8. (U) Mercado Castro said Mexico needed deeper discussion of 
the issues facing the country, and specifically added that AMLO 
should be open to dialogue on "ideas of the Mexican Left," which 
are more varied than what he represents. 
 
MERCADO CASTRO ALSO BACKS GOOD U.S.-MEXICO RELATIONS 
 
¶9. (U) The "Alternativa" candidate said that she believed U.S. 
immigration policy is "oppressive," but emphasized that she was 
not closed to talks with the United States and knew that good 
relations with the U.S. were necessary. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Comment:  AMLO drew the lion's share of media 
attention with his rally in Hermosillo, but the press - 
especially local TV and radio stations - were also generous in 
covering Mercado Castro, who appeared to be running a smart 
campaign for someone with few resources.  She ensured that she 
was interviewed in depth on television, while AMLO was featured 
in reportage showing the crowd and using a few sound bites from 
his speech.  Overall coverage stuck in large measure to what the 
candidates said and placed both of them in a favorable light. 
Editorial comment on the visits of the candidates has been scant. 
 
¶11. (SBU) In the 2000 presidential election, Sonora voters went 
51 percent for the winning National Action Party (PAN) candidate 
Vicente Fox (PAN), and gave the Institutional Revolutionary 
Party (PRI) and PRD candidates respectively almost 34 percent 
and 13 percent.  For what it is worth -- which is probably not 
much given the small, unscientific sample and the stage of the 
election campaign -- an Imparcial poll last week of local voters 
found AMLO (25 percent) behind PAN's Felipe Calderon (32.1 
percent) in the overall standing.  PRI candidate Roberto Madrazo 
(10.4 percent) came in third.  End Comment. 
CLARKE