VZCZCXRO5678
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHHI #0166/01 0190925
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 190925Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0564
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 0368
RUEHZS/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI//FPA//
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000166 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEAN VM
SUBJECT: VIETNAM A STAUNCH BUT SLOW SUPPORTER OF EAS 
 
HANOI 00000166  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary and Comment:  Vietnam, originally opposed 
to the East Asian Summit (EAS) because of fears it would 
dilute ASEAN's influence, has become a strong supporter of 
the new edifice in East Asian regional architecture. 
Vietnam views the EAS now as a way to strengthen Asian unity 
and bring more issues into multilateral forums.  The 
addition of Australia, New Zealand, India and (Vietnam 
hopes) eventually Russia will bring greater engagement by 
those nations in Southeast Asia, offsetting (and mellowing) 
China's influence in the region.  Despite this positive view 
of the EAS, Vietnam is not likely in the short term to take 
an active leadership role in this (or any) institution and 
will avoid trend-setting on contentious issues, preferring 
instead to join consensus after comprehensive rounds of 
consultations with other ASEANs.  Other ASEANs, Singapore in 
particular, find Vietnam's go-slow tendencies difficult to 
understand.  End Summary and Comment. 
 
MFA: MOVE SLOW AND MUMBLE PLATITUDES 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Poloff met with MFA ASEAN Desk Officer Ha Thi Ngoc 
Ha December 28 to discuss Vietnam's position in and on the 
EAS.  Ha was well-armed with the official EAS declaration 
and a few talking points from the office of the MFA 
Spokesman, and so provided "strong statements" reciting 
Vietnam's "high appreciation" for this "historic event." 
Vietnam notes that this was the first East Asia Summit, Ha 
helpfully pointed out.  After considerable prodding, she 
acknowledged that Vietnam changed its tune on the EAS after 
satisfying itself that ASEAN's position "in the driver's 
seat" of the EAS changed the EAS from a mechanism to dilute 
ASEAN's influence to one that elevated ASEAN's importance as 
the anchor for an organization that will complement the 
ASEAN+3.  Ha also revealed that Vietnam supports the further 
development of the EAS and the addition of Russia, a 
position that she believes Indonesia and Singapore do not 
support.  The sticking point currently obstructing consensus 
is the fact that some ASEAN countries disagree on the 
question of whether there is "substantial" ASEAN-Russia 
cooperation, one of the three criteria for membership in the 
EAS. 
 
¶3. (SBU) When asked about Vietnam's plans for the EAS, Ha 
said that Vietnam supports the creation of an East Asian 
Community (EAC) in the long term, but is concerned that in 
the short term, severe differences in the development levels 
of Asian countries would make that impossible.  Vietnam 
supports using the EAS as a mechanism to advance the goal of 
narrowing the development gap between rich and poor.  The 
EAC "needs to be considered step-by-step over the long 
term."  At this point, the modalities of the EAS are not 
agreed, she observed, with the question even of holding a 
senior officials' meeting still not decided within ASEAN. 
Vietnam supports the EAS, she concluded, but wants to ensure 
that the plans for the EAS are "well considered" and that 
the EAS does not take on more of a mandate than all member 
countries think appropriate. 
 
THINK TANK: KEEP IN MIND THAT VIETNAM IS NEW AT THIS 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Director of Vietnam's Institute for Southeast Asian 
Studies Dr. Pham Duc Thanh told Poloff December 29 that 
Vietnam's stance on the EAS and EAC is based on its 
perception that the emergence of an East Asian Community is 
inevitable; that China will be the "nucleus" of such a 
grouping; and that for ASEAN to retain its relevance and 
importance it will have to make East Asian architecture as 
inclusive as possible while guarding ASEAN prerogatives and 
interests. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Vietnam has evolved extremely quickly, Dr. Thanh 
continued, from a country with a foreign policy slavishly 
crafted according to the Soviet line to an ASEAN country 
that has linked its future to other ASEAN countries' 
collective success.  "Very recently," Thanh said, "Vietnam 
was the greatest enemy of ASEAN countries.  Now the ASEAN 
members are like brothers."  Vietnam is still developing its 
foreign policy proficiency and testing out possible 
international roles.  "You may be frustrated with Vietnam's 
cautiousness, but you must remember we are just learning to 
walk."  Currently, Vietnamese foreign policy is 
unsophisticated, he acknowledged, but Vietnam is developing 
its outlook and capabilities in that area. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The foreign affairs bureaucracy in Vietnam spent a 
great deal of time and effort working out an appropriate 
 
HANOI 00000166  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
response to the EAS, Dr. Thanh said, because this was a case 
where Vietnam had to follow its own counsel and could not 
rely on ASEAN consensus to guide its policy.  In the end, 
Vietnam decided that it would be best for Vietnam and ASEAN 
if the EAS were to go forward with ASEAN in the driver's 
seat and with as much participation as possible from outside 
the ASEAN+3 grouping.  Vietnam definitely wants Russia to 
participate in EAS, he said, and sees a potentially 
constructive role for the United States as well.  Vietnam 
has not considered the practical aspects of the EAC because 
it seems too unrealistic at the moment.  "In 100 years, we 
may have an EAC," Dr. Thanh said, "but in the near future, 
Japan and China seem too far apart."  Still, some further 
degree of intertwining and interdependence in Asia is 
inevitable, and Vietnam wants to be sure it plays a 
constructive role in that process that protects Vietnam's 
interests, Thanh concluded. 
 
"NEIGHBOR" DIPLOMATS: VIETNAM AGGRAVATINGLY UNPREDICTABLE 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) An exasperated Singaporean diplomat told Poloff 
January 13 that Singapore has given up trying to determine 
Vietnam's position towards the EAS or EAC.  "We don't know 
what they want, because they don't know what they want," the 
diplomat complained.  She confirmed that Vietnam has stated 
its position definitively vis--vis Russian participation in 
the EAS, but said that Vietnam has not thought that decision 
through.  "Singapore was not enthusiastic about the creation 
of the EAS in the first place," she continued, "and nor was 
Vietnam.  But now that the EAS is a reality, we believe it 
should be an effective and well-crafted group, and we are 
concerned about some of Vietnam's positions."  As an 
example, she cited Vietnam's unwillingness to take a 
position on the status of individual members.  Singapore 
wants to ensure that there is not "tiered membership" in the 
EAS, with non-ASEAN+3 countries relegated to the cheap 
seats, because this scenario would likely cause the interest 
and commitment of India, Australia and New Zealand to 
falter, ultimately playing into the hands of those who would 
prefer to exclude those countries anyway.  Vietnam should 
oppose this if it genuinely supports an inclusive EAS.  The 
fact that Singapore cannot extract a commitment either way 
on this issue is emblematic of Vietnam's frustrating 
approach to the EAS and ASEAN issues in general, she said. 
 
BOARDMAN