This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

192137Z Jan 06

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HALIFAX 000011 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR WHA/CAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: THE FEDERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN ATLANTIC CANADA: IS THE 
REGION UP FOR GRABS? 
 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY: With the Liberals and Conservatives neck-to-neck in 
Atlantic Canada, election-watchers are pointing to the large 
number of undecided voters as key to whether the Liberals are 
able to hold onto their grip in the region.  U.S. interests in 
the campaign revolve around promised increases in military 
spending and a proposed LNG plant in Maine.  END SUMMARY. 
 
PREDICTIONS: WILL ATLANTIC CANADIANS FOLLOW THE NATIONAL LEAD? 
 
¶2.  With Conservative momentum building across Canada, the big 
question in the Atlantic Provinces is whether this same momentum 
is carrying through here and whether it will fully hit the 
region before election day.  Recent polling data shows the race 
tightening significantly between the two major contenders: the 
Liberals and the Conservatives.  Taking in the margin of error 
in a new poll conducted by a major regional firm, the Liberals 
and the Conservatives are within striking distance of each 
other. In the 2004 election the Liberals took 22 of the region's 
32 seats to the Conservatives' 7 and the NDP's 3.  Now poll 
results indicate the Conservatives could make significant gains 
on January 23. 
 
¶3.  At the outset of the campaign all indications were that the 
Liberals would maintain their hold on the region.  Polls showed 
the Liberals with 50 percent support, while the Conservatives 
trailed with 28 percent.  Since that time the Conservatives have 
risen 8 percentage points to 36%, while the Liberals have dipped 
9 points to 41%. Adjusting for the margin of error, this leaves 
both parties at an almost statistical tie.  (The NDP have 
remained consistent throughout the campaign at approximately 20% 
of popular support.)  The big dilemma in predicting whether the 
region has jumped on the Conservative bandwagon is the high 
number of undecided voters, between 16-27%.  This could present 
a significant shift to either party in the final days of the 
campaign. 
 
¶4.  Against this background, the momentum nationally and the 
tightening of the polls locally, it would not be difficult to 
project the Conservatives picking up seats in the Atlantic area. 
If current trends hold, the Liberals would be reduced to 15 
seats from their 22, the Conservatives gaining 7 to give them 14 
seats, and the NDP keeping their 3 (with the possibility of a 
fourth should the NDP win in a tough battle in a metro Halifax 
riding). 
 
THE CAMPAIGN:  THE LIBERALS VERSUS THE CONSERVATIVES 
 
¶5. Campaigning Liberals have been touting their record in 
Atlantic Canada, saying that the region has gained much from 
successive Liberal governments.  They also warn that the region 
could see these gains erode should the Conservatives take power. 
 As for the Conservatives themselves, they are finding that 
voters are hesitant to fully embrace leader Stephen Harper and 
his team. Despite this hesitancy, the national 'need for change' 
factor is fueling the Conservative momentum in the region and 
has narrowed the gap between the two parties. 
 
¶6.  Also, the length of the campaign has allowed Mr. Harper to 
travel to the region more frequently than he did in 2004 when 
voters were far from receptive. He and his party strategists 
have fought a more focused campaign than in 2004 then when they 
came across as a Western dominated, fractured party, newly 
created and largely unorganized in the region. 
 
THE NDP: NO TRACTION 
 
¶7.  Polls show the NDP has not broken any new ground in the 
region and will likely retain their current three seats. In an 
effort to increase the profile of NDP candidates, national 
leader Jack Layton has visited the region several times during 
the campaign.  Despite his attention, the party appears to have 
failed to gain much ground since 2004 and there are no 
indications that it will move out of its traditional third place 
slot. 
 
U.S. ISSUES AND OTHER CAMPAIGN THEMES 
 
¶8.  U.S. issues in this campaign have been the Conservative 
promise to increase military spending, including the expansion 
of military bases in the region.  Also of U.S. interest is the 
ongoing issue of a proposed liquefied natural gas plant in 
northern Maine. Mr. Harper has reconfirmed a Conservative 
party's commitment to deny U.S. vessels passage through Canadian 
waters to reach the proposed plant. Apart from these bilateral 
issues all three party leaders have visited the region and have 
mainly promoted their national party agendas without reference 
to the U.S.  Local issues have also received the requisite 
attention from leaders but have failed to grab much attention. 
 
HIGHLIGHTED RACES 
 
¶9.  As elsewhere in the country, there is no shortage of 
interesting contests.  Looking at the cabinet ministers up for 
re-election, Aboriginal Affairs Minister Andy Scott campaigning 
in his Fredericton New Brunswick riding is in definite danger of 
losing his seat, as is his Nova Scotia colleague, Public Works 
Minister Scott Brison.  On the other hand, Nova Scotia's other 
cabinet representative, Fisheries and Oceans Minister Geoff 
Regan, will likely be back with little difficulty due to his 
personal popularity.  The same applies to Prince Edward Island's 
Joseph McGuire, Minister for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities 
Agency. Another high profile race is in the Halifax riding where 
NDP Foreign Affairs critic and former party leader Alexa 
McDonough is facing a tight three-way race.  Her campaign 
manager told the Consulate's political intern, "Alexa is 
fighting for her political career in this election." 
Nevertheless, she faces relatively unknown challengers and the 
Liberal and Conservatives do not seem to be making a major 
effort to unseat her, in contrast to 2004 when she faced a 
popular Regional Council member who ran an energetic and 
well-financed campaign. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶10. This long campaign has boiled down to one key theme:  Are 
Atlantic Canadians prepared to embrace the concept of a change 
in government by voting Conservative?  The polls have not been 
as overwhelming for the Harper Team as they have been 
nationally, but observers note Mr. Harper has made definite 
strides in wooing voters away from the Liberals.  As we noted in 
our reporting on the 2004 election, when voters here actually 
meet the Conservative leader or hear him speak in person their 
fear of him and his policies seems to diminish.  Overall, the 
answer to the question of whether Mr. Harper can rely on 
Atlantic Canadians to help him form a government lies in just 
how these undecided -- but crucial -- voters mark their ballots. 
 END COMMENT. 
HILL