This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000280 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR SA A/S ROCCA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2016 
TAGS: PREL PTER KISL KDEM BG BG BGD
SUBJECT: YOUR VISIT TO BANGLADESH 
 
Classified By: A/DCM D.C. McCullough, reasons para 1.4 b, d. 
 
 ¶1. (S) Everything and nothing has changed in Bangladesh 
since your last visit in May 2005.  JMB's stunning onslaught 
of violence finally forced the BDG to acknowledge that 
terrorism and extremism exist in Bangladesh, but domestic 
politics remain as polarized and painful as ever.  Your BNP 
and MFA interlocutors will be upbeat about the elections and 
the anti-JMB campaign, while the Awami League will insist 
that the sky is falling down.  There will be intense media 
scrutiny of your visit because of its timing, coinciding with 
the start of the Awami League's potentially final big program 
of national agitation before the election, and because the 
BDG and the AL will be furiously spinning their interactions 
with you to prove USG sympathy for their position. 
 
Extremism 
--------- 
 
¶2. (S) The JMB came close to traumatizing the country in 
early December.  While its violence claimed only 32 lives 
over a span of several months in a country of 144 million 
people, the randomness and nationwide scope of the attacks 
scared many normally complacent Bangladeshis into wondering 
if they might be next.  The BNP and JI started to show signs 
of strain as even some, mostly dissident, elements of BNP 
criticized BDG handling of the crisis and questioned the 
utility of the BNP-JI coalition.  Predictably, as they do 
after any incident of high-profile violence, BNP and AL 
leaders blamed each other.  But by the time the Id al-Kabir 
holidays arrived in January, the mood had shifted, thanks to 
the halt in violence following the major arrests and weapons 
recoveries in December.  Unless and until the violence 
resumes, the BNP will continue to claim it has fought and won 
the good fight against JMB. 
 
¶3. (S) BNP leaders will likely tell you: 
 
-- JMB is on the run, thanks to her and the Rapid Action 
Battalion (RAB). 
 
-- It was a bad situation, but the total rejection of JMB 
violence by civil society, including Muslim clerics and 
Islamic scholars, underscores that Bangladesh is a tolerant, 
moderate country with no stomach for extremism. 
 
-- In fact, Islam is a religion of peace, so no Muslim could 
accept JMB's actions. 
 
-- Since terrorism and Islam are by definition mutually 
exclusive, we should look at who benefited from JMB's 
violence.  The answer is those (read India and the AL) who 
seek to defame and destabilize the country. 
 
-- The BDG has proven its commitment to counter-terrorism and 
should be rewarded by the USG. 
 
¶4. (S) Zia will agree with every point on why extremism must 
be confronted, and say it is for these reasons that she is 
determined to bring JMB to book.  If we ask the BDG to shut 
down organizations that support terrorism, she will promise 
to do so, just as soon as (someone else) demonstrates their 
guilt.  Zia takes the same tack when pressed to hold BNP 
leaders accountable for corruption or their ties to Bangla 
Bhai. 
 
¶5. (S) Sheikh Hasina, on the other hand, says that BNP and JI 
instigated the violence to distract people from the 
government's unpopularity and the 14-party opposition 
alliance's anti-government manifesto.  As proof, she cites 
the four ministers widely linked to Bangla Bhai.  Hasina does 
not really believe that either BNP or JI is behind the 
attacks, insiders tell us, but she is determined to stick to 
the position that the JI is responsible for all BDG misdeeds. 
 The AL, echoing points made here by the Indian High 
Commission, says JMB proved that they were "right" about the 
Islamist threat to Bangladesh, and hopes the USG will now 
take the issue seriously.  (Note: In fact, the AL warned 
about the Talibanization of Bangladeshi society as part of an 
Islamist-BNP bid to destroy "secular" forces, not an isolated 
terrorist campaign.) 
 
Elections 
--------- 
 
¶6. (S) Bangladesh's zero-sum political culture makes any 
election a winner-take-all affair, but the 2007 election is 
also make or break for the two major parties.  For the BNP, 
victory shatters the strong anti-incumbency bias of 
Bangladesh, and South Asia, that has denied any Bangladeshi 
administration a second term, and it positions Tariq to 
succeed his mother as PM in the next five years.  For the AL, 
defeat or boycott implies ten years out of power, a bitter 
pill for a party that sees itself as Bangladesh's rightful 
ruler and that needs the lure of power and money to maintain 
party discipline.  With both the AL and BNP wedded or at 
least resigned to the politics of black money and thugs (a 
legacy of the perversion of democratic practices during 
General Ershad's rule), there is every reason to think the 
next election will be extremely turbulent.  The BNP's 
stacking of the Election Commission is the latest example 
that it can act shamelessly and on the margins of the law to 
advance its political interest.  Polls suggest that support 
for AL and BNP is neck and neck, with a large undecided bloc; 
however, there is strong confidence in the integrity of the 
electoral system, which suggests that the AL might have a 
hard time justifying a boycott. 
¶7. (S) Your BNP/MFA interlocutors will say: 
 
-- BNP is committed to a free and fair electoral process 
because, as the stronger party, it wants the will of the 
people accurately reflected.  The re-election of the AL mayor 
in Chittagong last year, and the upset win of an independent 
Hindu in a JI safe seat, shows the impartiality of the system. 
 
-- The real problem is that the opposition does not practice 
what it preaches on democracy.  It boycotts parliament and 
spurns offers of inter-party dialogue in favor of a strategy 
of confrontation.  The USG should urge the AL to change 
course. 
 
-- The caretaker regime system works and doesn't need to be 
changed. 
 
¶8. (S) The Awami League will reiterate that BDG moves to fix 
the election leave it with no alternative to boycotts and 
hartals.  The BDG's choice of two BNP stooges to be new 
election commissioners, and the way they rushed through the 
swearing-in ceremony to pre-empt opposition, underscores BNP 
bad faith.  (Note: It is true that the Chief Election 
Commissioner and the new commissioners have acted in a 
pro-BNP manner.)  The USG, the AL says, should support 
democracy by supporting the opposition's demands for 
caretaker regime and electoral changes, including political 
party consensus for key appointments. 
 
Watch Out For 
------------- 
 
¶9. (C) 
 
-- RAB has proven itself against JMB, but needs training and 
equipment from the USG. 
 
-- We supported you at the WTO in Hongkong and are now under 
fire for "selling out" our garment industry.  You should 
support the Trade Act to give our garments duty-free access 
to the U.S. market. 
 
-- Bangladesh deserves to participate in the Millennium 
Challenge Account. 
 
-- (If we ask for BDG support on Iran) We have to respect 
Bangladeshi opinion that sees a double standard between your 
contrasting approaches to the nuclear programs of Iran and 
Israel. 
CHAMMAS