VZCZCXRO6165
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #0133/01 0191639
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 191639Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3973
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000133 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/PHD AND INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM SG
SUBJECT: AN INAUSPICIOUS START FOR THE 2007 ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. 05 DAKAR 3184 
 
     ¶B. 05 DAKAR 2597 
 
Classified By: POLOFF RACHEL WALLACE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (SBU) Every party involved with the 2007 legislative and 
presidential elections faces serious obstacles.  President 
Wade is so concerned with ensuring a solid win that he is 
exploring ways to change Senegal,s electoral system and has 
approached former Prime Minister Seck,s camp, looking for a 
way to bring Seck back into the Senegalese Democratic Party 
(PDS) fold.  Wade has also attempted to split the opposition 
by luring some of its leaders into his Government.  The 
Autonomous National Electoral Commission (CENA), which has 
responsibility as  the government &watchdog8 for the 
electoral process, has not been given promised funds to 
conduct its mission and thus is unable to move forward.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
WADE,S QUEST FOR VICTORY 
------------------------ 
¶2.  (C) Although more than one year away, the February 2007 
legislative and presidential elections are already posing 
problems for everyone involved.  Polls conducted by Wade,s 
own party reportedly show him losing.  Wade has looked to a 
multitude of means to achieve a solid win.  First, he 
introduced in the National Assembly a bill extending 
parliamentary terms, thereby coupling the legislative and 
presidential elections. 
 
¶3.  (C) Next, some legal experts claim Wade has imported from 
France three constitutional law specialists to advise him on 
how to alter Senegal,s electoral system and guarantee an 
election victory.  Serigne Mbaye Thiam, a leading member of 
the Socialist Party (PS) and Professor Babacar Gueye, NGO 
&Forum Civil8 coordinator for electoral issues, indicated 
separately that Wade wants to change the electoral law to 
remove a barrier that could compromise his reelection. 
Currently, the electoral system, &Le Quart Bloquant,8 
requires every each candidate to receive the votes of at 
least 25 percent of the total number of registered voters in 
addition to an absolute majority of votes actually cast to be 
elected.  If not, a second round is held 15 days after the 
results are announced.  Wade may try every tactic possible to 
avoid going to a second round.  For this reason, he is 
considering a &first past the post8 (or plurality voting) 
system.  In such a system, whoever receives the largest 
number of votes wins; there would be no run-off and no 
minimum number of votes required. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Finally, apparently fearing electoral backlash from 
the Seck indictment, Wade has opened discussions with those 
closest to Seck to achieve a rapprochement.  EmbOff was told 
by a Seck confidant that Seck is open to returning to the 
PDS, if permitted to run the party.  This could dramatically 
affect the elections.  The jailing of Seck has impassioned 
many in the opposition and throughout the electorate.  Were 
he to be released, this opposition catalyst would disappear. 
Moreover, Seck is widely viewed as an effective party 
manager.  He could reunify the currently fragmented PDS in 
its bid for legislative and presidential victory in ,07. 
 
DIVIDE AND CONQUER 
------------------ 
¶5.  (C) Wade is also rumored to be attempting to co-opt 
opposition leaders such as Moustapha Niasse, leader of the 
Alliance of Forces of Progress (AFP).  Wade reportedly 
offered to Niasse and others the possibility of teaming up 
with him on the electoral ticket.  To open up additional 
positions to opposition leaders, Wade is also considering 
pushing for a change in the Constitution to permit creation 
of a Vice Presidency and/or a revived Senate.  At the same 
time, he has encouraged some old guard members of the PS, the 
main opposition party, to dissent and create a &Courant de 
Pensee,8 a faction within the PS intent on challenging its 
current Secretary General, Ousmane Tanor Dieng.  This faction 
presumably wants to present a candidate for the presidential 
election and negotiate with Wade for ministerial positions 
and other privileges.  Atomization of the opposition favors 
Wade even more if a &first past the post8 electoral system 
is put in place. 
 
A CENA LACKING IN RESOURCES BUT NOT DETERMINATION 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
¶6.  (C) The PS,s Thiam and Awa Wade, spokesperson of the 
Ligue Democratique (LD), told us of technical difficulties 
with the voter registration process.  They said photos for 
voter identification cards often print out black (that is, 
without an image).  Also, under the law as it stands, voters 
 
DAKAR 00000133  002 OF 002 
 
 
are required to register where they vote.  The Wade 
Government has said this is no longer necessary, as there is 
a computer system in place linking all voting locations. 
People can register wherever they wish but still have to 
indicate where they plan to vote.  Yet, the Government has 
made no attempt to change the electoral code to reflect 
changing realities. 
 
¶7.  (C) Thiam and the LD,s Wade also pointed out that CENA 
has been given no computers and argue that the government,s 
claim that it is no longer necessary to vote where one 
registers is thus unsupported.  In fact, the CENA cannot 
supervise the voter registration process at all without 
computers.  Professor Gueye of the Forum Civil underscored 
the magnitude of the problem by arguing that CENA not only 
has no computers, it also has no functional offices, no 
vehicles for transportation and no significant resources of 
any kind.  The CENA,s national members have resorted to 
meeting in the house of CENA,s presiding officer.  Because 
the CENA has no computers, hard copies of the names of 
registered voters have piled up, waiting to be processed. 
Currently, over one million voters, names sit in stacks, 
awaiting data entry. 
 
¶8.  (C) According to Gueye, this is GOS strategy.  The 
Government has kept the CENA in a state of indigence in an 
effort to get its members to resign.  The CENA was granted a 
modest budget of 800,000 CFA francs (approximately USD 1.5 
million), which has yet to be disbursed.  Yet CENA members 
have not quit their posts.  Instead, they have used media to 
denounce lack of means and have fought hard to preserve 
independence.  Gueye believes their determination has greatly 
surprised the Government. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Cheikh Gueye, Director General of Elections for 
Senegal, reiterated that the CENA has no resources.  He told 
EmbOff the money and needed equipment are there but have not 
yet been released by the Government.  On the other hand, he 
said there were no major problems with the upcoming 
elections.  As of December 29, 1,339,569 people have 
registered with the new digital registration system )- the 
vast majority of whom come from Dakar because registration in 
the 11 regions began later.  He also claimed there were 700 
electoral committees (including 200 itinerant ones) already 
in place to manage registration throughout the country.  He 
said the presidential and legislative elections in 
February/March 2007, and local elections to follow in May 
2007, will cost approximately 7 billion CFAF (USD 14 
million).  The GOS has already invested 20 billion CFAF (USD 
40 million) to buy needed equipment. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶10.  (C) Wade is using all means possible to retain his 
office.  He is tinkering with the Constitution and trying to 
persuade opponents to join him.  His maneuvers have not gone 
unnoticed.  Some decry what they describe as a regression of 
democratic principles in Senegal.  They argue that should 
undemocratic practices continue, there is a potential for 
political unrest and an inability to govern the country 
peacefully following the 2007 elections.  END COMMENT. 
 
JACKSON 
JACKSON