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O P 302123Z JAN 06
FM AMCONSUL CURACAO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1441
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RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 0201
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEABND/DEA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/JIATF SOUTH
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
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RUEHSP/AMEMBASSY PORT OF SPAIN 0044
RUEHPO/AMEMBASSY PARAMARIBO 0031
RUEHAO/AMCONSUL CURACAO 1039

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CURACAO 000127 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL NA
SUBJECT: RULING PAR PARTY WINS BIG, PRO-CHAVEZ LEFT LOSES BIG IN NA 
ELECTIONS 
 
 
¶1. (U) The ruling PAR party led by its new leader Emily de 
Jongh-Elhage had a dramatic win in Curacao's national elections 
January 27 with over 25 percent of the vote, gaining five seats. 
 In a night of surprises Charles Cooper's MAN party jumped from 
no seats in the last national election to three seats with over 
18 percent of the Curacao vote and became the second largest 
party.  Coalition partner PNP kept its two seats and centrist 
newcomer Forsa Korsou gained two seats.  Elections on the other 
islands resulted in few surprises except for the National 
Alliance just edging out the Democratic Party in St. Maarten as 
that island's largest party. 
 
¶2.  (U) The night's losers were Anthony Godett and his FOL party 
and its island-level coalition partner PLKP led by Errol Cova. 
Cova, who was pushed out of the government for his pro-Chavez, 
anti-Dutch statements last May, received no seats while the FOL 
received only two. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
------------ 
Why did PAR Win and the FOL and PLKP Lose? 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU) With the selection of Emily de Jongh-Elhage as party 
leader the PAR set out and developed a positive campaign 
focusing on good governance, crime, education and building a 
unified strategy to deal with the island's problems as it moves 
toward autonomy.   She was a particularly strong campaigner with 
a calm, common touch laying out her party's five point plan, 
calling for unity and an end to the politics of confrontation. 
Policies begun under PM Ys' government have also begun to show 
fruit as the crime rate has declined.  PAR was also helped by a 
successful fund raising effort to run its campaign. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Anthony Godett seemed incapable of getting his capaign 
underway.  Waiting to serve his ten-month jail term for 
corruption, Goddett tried to use the old tactics of claiming to 
be a victim of the Dutch "colonialists" and big business. 
Sensing that the FOL was faltering in the last days of the 
campaign he tried to use the "Goddett" name as a vote getter, by 
claiming he was leading a political dynasty which would last for 
centuries.   The absurdity of the statement went too far, even 
for some of his supporters.  (His father led the riots in 1969 
and founded the FOL.) 
 
--------------------------------- 
Venezuela and Chavez 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Venezuela and Chavez, while rarely raised directly in 
the campaign, were important factors.  As a coalition partner 
with the FOL on the island level, the PLKP, led by former deputy 
PM Errol Cova, simply did not gauge accurately how much the 
electorate disliked his statements supporting Chavez and 
lambasting the Dutch.  From a kingmaker in previous governments, 
 his party suffered a serious defeat gaining just six percent of 
the vote and no seats.   For its part the FOL tried to distance 
itself from Cova's support for Chavez, but simply were not 
believed by the voters. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The message given by the voters in this election can 
be summed up as follows:  No to Chavez; No to Confrontation; Yes 
to autonomous status in the Kingdom; Yes to good governance and 
sensible financial policy; and Yes to fighting crime and 
cooperating with the Dutch.  Most importantly, the voters set 
the stage for what could be one of the more stable periods of 
government in the Netherlands Antilles and Curacao as efforts 
move forward to a new constitutional framework and autonomy for 
Curacao and St. Maarten. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
PAR/PNP Coalition with MAN 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Following the election both Emily de Jongh-Elhage and 
Charles Cooper indicated interest in synchronizing governments 
on the island and central levels.  Synchronization means that 
the coalition on the island level mirrors that of the central 
level in order to coordinate policy initiatives.   While PAR 
 
CURACAO 00000127  002 OF 002 
 
 
could easily form a government on the central level without MAN, 
a coalition with MAN would provide the opportunity of forcing 
changes in the island government.  What will be at issue is to 
what extent MAN will be able to curb its desires.  Largely 
succeeding due to popular disgust with FOL and PLKP as well as 
to its solid performance in government on the island level, MAN 
will have to gauge carefully how much it can get in a coalition 
with PAR.  However, Emily's previous work with Charles Cooper on 
the island council leads to expectations that a deal can be able 
to be worked out.  Time, however, is of the essence for MAN. 
With new constitutional arrangements due by July 2007, PAR may 
well decide taking a few months to form a coalition with MAN is 
not worth it.  New party Forsa Korsou with its two seats is 
interested in joining a coalition, and could give PAR and PNP 
the additional strength. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------- 
What does this election mean for the U.S.? 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) It was a clear repudiation of any thought that 
Curacaoans have much sympathy for Venezuela and Chavez.  While 
there are substantial ties between the two countries, the 
average Curacaoan considers his Venezuelan neighbor as pushy and 
some even say "racist."  The bombastic statements emanating from 
Caracas over U.S. ship visits and the Forward Operating Location 
in Curacao only reinforced this popular perception as seen in 
this election.  For the upcoming negotiations on the Isla 
refinery in Curacao, Chavez's political card will be harder 
play, particularly as rumors of U.S. firms' interest in the 
refinery are stoked. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) While the exact outlines of the new government have 
yet to be delineated, it is expected that it will continue and 
enhance close cooperation with the United States, particularly 
in the areas of counter-narcotics, counter-terrorism and border 
security.  We can expect as well that this PAR-led government 
will be an advocate for good governance and will further embrace 
globalization of its economy. 
SORENSON