This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000351 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
OSD/ISA FOR ALLEN/POWERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2016 
TAGS: PREL PREF PINR PTER PGOV TH BURMA GPOI DPRK
SUBJECT: BGEN ALLEN'S MEETING WITH NSC SECRETARY GENERAL 
WINAI 
 
Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES ALEX A. ARVIZU FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D) 
 
¶1. (C) In his meeting with visiting OSD/ISA Principal 
Director for Asian and Pacific Affairs BGen John Allen, Thai 
National Security Council Secretary General Winai Phattiyakul 
outlined the RTG's strategic threat outlook, Thailand and 
ASEAN's frustration with the suprise move of the Burmese 
capital, RTG thinking on refugees, and recent RTG progress in 
reducing violence in the South.  Winai responded to Gen. 
Allen's briefing on recent USG efforts to improve military 
relations with China, saying, "that is really a relief for us 
smaller countries in the region." End Summary. 
 
STRATEGIC THREAT PICTURE 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) On January 16, visiting Department of Defense OSD/ISA 
Principal Director for Asian and Pacific Affairs Brigadier 
General John R. Allen, accompanied by the DCM, met with Thai 
National Security Council Secretary General Winai 
Phattiyakul. Following BGen Allen's briefing on an upcoming 
Royal Thai Armed Forces trip to the Joint Forces Command in 
March, Winai explained that, in dealing with the Thai 
military, it was useful to understand Thai political leaders' 
strategic threat framework.  Terrorism remains the primary 
threat, followed by transnational crime and low-intensity 
conflict (LIC).  LIC "is what we have to deal with in the 
next century," whether participating in UN or ally-led peace 
keeping operations, or dealing with a host of other security 
concerns in Southeast Asia.  For example, Thailand has not 
settled its borders with its neighbors, and this may yet lead 
to tension. Moreover, the nature of Thailand's 
neighbors--poorer and less politically stable--could 
challenge Thailand's security as well.  In order to meet 
these challenges, the Thai military must restructure its 
forces into a "smaller, smarter, more mobile" model. 
 
BURMA 
----- 
 
¶3. (C) When asked about the Burmese government's recent 
suprise decision to relocate their capital, Winai confirmed 
that the RTG had been surprised by the move as well.  This 
opaque decision on the part of the junta in Rangoon had 
caused consternation within the recent ASEAN leaders meeting 
in Kuala Lumpur.  Winai explained that the military 
leadership in Rangoon had four possible reasons for the move: 
fear of a U.S. military strike on the capital (though Winai 
noted that the move doesn't mean much given U.S. military 
capabilities), a desire for increased control over the 
country from a more central location, superstition (the 
generals give much consideration to astrology and numerology) 
and, finally, a desire by senior General Than Shwe to develop 
his hometown, where the new capital will be located. 
According to Winai, the Burmese leadership may use the 
upcoming Armed Forces Day in March to show the new capital to 
some foreign Ambassadors and Defense Attaches. 
 
BURMESE, NORTH KOREAN AND HMONG REFUGEES 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Winai denied that the move of the Burmese capital has 
resulted in increased numbers of Burmese refugees on the Thai 
border.  The population in the border camps remains stable. 
Good RTG-USG-UNHCR cooperation aside, Winai remains saddened 
by the reality of life for these refugees. The younger 
generations have never lived outside of the camps.  "These 
people have no future."  According to Winai, the RTG is 
considering expanded educational assistance to these 
refugees, with the hope that, in 20-30 years, these refugees 
can serve as a key group in a newly revitalized Burma. 
 
¶5. (C) Winai expressed frustration with the host of other 
refugee issues that Thailand faces.  The RTG is "not happy" 
with the trickle of North Korean refugees that cross over 
from Laos and RTG provincial officials have been instructed 
to find and arrest them.  Hmong refugees from Laos are even 
bigger problem, with at least 5,000 having crossed over into 
Petchaboon province in the last year, apparently hoping that 
a new U.S. resettlement program would be in the offing. 
According to Winai, the RTG may have to repatriate them 
little-by-little to send the message that Thailand cannot 
take them. "We hope that our friends will understand when we 
have to take strong action." 
 
SOUTH 
----- 
 
¶6. (C) Winai expressed appreciation for USG understanding 
that the Thai South is a domestic issue.  The situation there 
is "a little better." Incidents of violence were down in 
December--only 30 in that month compared to an average of 
about 150 in October and November. Part of this downturn may 
be due to the serious flooding in the area, however. 
According to Winai, the RTG is increasingly successful in its 
efforts to understand the separatist movement, arrest the 
right people and disrupt the violence.  Local citizens are 
providing much more information to authorities, which has led 
to the arrest of several bomb makers and "commandos."  Some 
people are "happy to be arrested," because it allows them to 
cease working for the separatist cause without fear of 
reprisal from the insurgents. 
 
¶7. (C) Based on the success of civil affairs programs and 
this shift in local thinking, the RTG is considering drafting 
a special "plea-bargaining" law that would provide increased 
incentives to those people who turn themselves in.  Though 
short of an actual amnesty program, Winai suggested that the 
latter may be under consideration as well.  When asked why 
the local population was cooperating with the government now, 
Winai explained that more and more southerners are starting 
to understand that the violence was not improving their 
lives.  On a side note, Winai commented that cooperation with 
Malaysia continues to improve, in part because Malay 
officials now understand that the flight of 131 Thai Muslims 
to Malaysia last year was not a legitimate refugee issue, but 
a plot concocted by separatist leaders to generate attention 
to the situation in the South. 
 
GPOI, CHINA 
----------- 
 
¶8. (C) Gen Allen briefed Winai on the Global Peacekeeping 
Operations Initiative (GPOI) and USG efforts to improve 
relations with China, including our expanded defense 
relations which, in the short term will emphasize military 
education.  Winai expressed strong interest in this issue 
saying "that is really a relief for us smaller countries in 
the region." 
 
¶9. (U) BGen Allen has cleared this message. 
ARVIZU