VZCZCXRO9927
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHAH #0108 0241122
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 241122Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6914
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 2495
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASHGABAT 000108 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SECSTATE FOR DAS BRYZA, EUR/CACEN, SA DAS GASTRIGHT 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2016 
TAGS: ECON ENRG EPET GG KZ PGOV PREL RS TX UP US
SUBJECT: TURKISH ENERGY MINISTER'S MEETING WITH NIYAZOV ON 
TCP:  "A POSITIVE START" 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Tracey Ann Jacobson for reasons 1.4 (b) and ( 
d) 
 
¶1.  (C)Turkish Ambassador Hakki Akil provided Ambassador a 
readout of Turkish Energy Minister Mehmet Hilmi Guler 1/19 
meeting with President Niyazov.  Guler told Niyazov that 
Turkey was ready to pursue seriously a Trans-Caspian Pipeline 
(TCP), and that he himself was prepared to come to Ashgabat 
every 15 to 30 days to advance the issue.  Guler said that 
the timing was now right for such a project:  the Europeans 
are more interested in diversification of gas supply, and the 
United States is also ready to advance the project.  Turkey 
has companies prepared to participate in a consortium. 
 
¶2.  (C) According to Akil, Guler made clear to Niyazov that 
Western companies and countries had previously believed that 
Niyazov only discussed TCP in order to have an additional 
bargaining chip in his gas price negotiations with Russia. 
The West now needs a signal that Niyazov is serious.  To this 
end, it would be critical that Niyazov not sign a longer term 
gas agreement, or one for more that 30 bcm, with Russia. 
Niyazov had said previously that he wouldn't sell "more than 
25%" of his gas to Russia, but then mentioned a figure of 50 
bcm.  Akil interjected that given Turkmen gas production and 
export levels, a contract for 50 bcm would preclude further 
discussions of a TPC.  Guler also told Niyazov that an 
intergovernmental agreement with Azerbaijan would be 
necessary before proceeding further to line up a consortium 
and get political support. 
 
¶3.  (C) Turkish Businessman (and potential TPC investor) 
Ahmed Calik sat in on the meeting on the GOTX side.  At 
Niyazov's request, he stayed behind, and told Niyazov that he 
thought Turkey was extremely serious about moving forward 
with a TPC.  Niyazov reportedly said he also believed this 
"for the first time."  Niyazov told Guler that he would "try 
to avoid" signing a contract during his trip to Russia, 
postponing a new agreement until "September or October." 
 
¶4.  (C) Akil believes (note:  and we agree) that the next 
order of business is to find out what Niyazov promised in 
Moscow this week.  After that, Akil wants to see a joint U.S. 
-Turkish effort to help facilitate an intergovernmental 
agreement with Azerbaijan, and then the building of a 
consortium.  He noted that involvement by the EU, even a 
political signal from the Commission that it would support a 
TCP project, would be helpful. 
 
¶5.  (C) Comment:  What Niyazov did or did not promise in 
Russia will be critical.  He will certainly have to have 
given Putin something -- he fears that failure to "cooperate" 
sufficiently with Russia could be detrimental to his 
regime/well being.  But he also appears to be interested in 
pursuing a TPC again, as he said during DAS Bryza's recent 
visit.  For the kremlinologically minded, we note that 
Niyazov permitted his Minister for Gas and Oil and Minister 
for Electricity to attend the official dinner at the Turkish 
Ambassador's residence on Friday -- the only other time these 
ministers have been permitted to "socialize" with foreigners 
in recent memory was our own July 4 reception last year. 
JACOBSON