VZCZCXRO4500
OO RUEHMR RUEHPA
DE RUEHDS #0048/01 0061427
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 061427Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8539
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM PRIORITY 0796
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0185

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000048 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO, AF/SPG, AF/RSA, AF/E. 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2016 
TAGS: PREL KPKO SU AU
SUBJECT: AU PSC GREEN LIGHT FOR UN TRANSITION OF AMIS 
UNCERTAIN 
 
REF: STATE 1351 
 
Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES A.I. VICKI HUDDLESTON. REASON: 1.4 (B) 
 AND (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  The African Union (AU) Commission has not 
undertaken extensive discussions either internally or with 
member states on the issue of an "exit strategy" for AMIS, 
Peace and Security Commissioner Amb. Said Djinnit told DCM, 
British Ambassador, Dutch Ambassador and Canadian Charge 
January 5.  Djinnit stated his preference for a political 
agreement to be in place before considering AMIS re-hatting, 
but conceded that a political settlement is not a 
prerequisite for UN takeover. The AU seeks more clarity on 
partner committment to fund AMIS throughout a transition 
period and is keen for assurance that the cash gap will also 
be closed.  The AU Commission will do its "utmost" to seek 
either a concrete Peace and Security Council (PSC) decision 
on AMIS future or PSC development of a mechanism to discuss 
AMIS future when it meets January 12, Djinnit noted. 
Nevertheless, PSC members will have the ultimate say.  While 
Djinnit was less confident that the PSC would give a green 
light for UN transition planning, AU Deputy Chairperson 
Mazimhaka told Charge January 6 that PSC authorization of UN 
planning seems a logical outcome of the January 12 session. 
In a separate meeting, the Cameroon Chair of the PSC told DCM 
that he expects more clarity on AMIS future as a result of 
the January 12 PSC.  Without predicting PSC outcome, he 
indicated satisfaction that the USG is promoting a UN 
transition and noted that a UN mission would have to be more 
robust than AMIS.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------- 
GETTING FRANK WITH THE AU ON AMIS 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) DCM, British Ambassador Dewar, Dutch Ambassador 
Hennekens and Canadian Charge approached Djinnit jointly on 
January 5 to convey a united position on the importance of a 
January 12 PSC decision authorizing AMIS transition to a UN 
mission.  DCM presented reftel points verbatim. An EC 
delegation representative attended as an observer. 
 
¶3. (C) The partners told Djinnit that the AU Commission can 
capitalize on AMIS success to date by promoting a PSC 
decision calling for a transition to the UN.  The UNSC needs 
an AU green light in order to authorize the UN to begin 
planning.  DCM noted that the U.S. wants to use its UN 
Security Council Presidency in February to request planning 
for re-hatting AMIS, so timing is crucial.  Partners noted 
that partner funding does have its limits so the AU and its 
member states should not make a PSC decision based on the 
assumption that partner funding for AMIS will continue. 
 
¶4. (C) Still, the USG and UK are committed to ensuring that 
AMIS funding continues during a transition period.  DCM said 
that the U.S. intends to work to ensure a continued African 
presence in Darfur through advocating re-hatting African 
troops and considering the possibility of an African Force 
Commander for the UN mission.  Partners asked Djinnit to 
ensure the AU Commission's report to the PSC stresses the 
importance of deciding on a way forward for AMIS.  Partners 
also assured Djinnit of continued commitment to improve 
African peacekeeping capability through training and 
equipping African troops. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
EXIT STRATEGY UNCLEAR, AU SEEKS REASSURANCE ON FUNDING 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶5. (C) Djinnit said that the AU and partners should take 
joint credit for AMIS success.  Emphasizing the importance of 
AMIS for AU credibility, Djinnit noted that Darfur was the 
first opportunity to test the new Peace and Security Council 
(PSC) and the AU's strategic objective of "non-indifference." 
 AMIS was also an opportunity to improve AU peace support 
capability. 
 
¶6. (C) According to Djinnit, the AU has not had much 
opportunity to discuss AMIS exit strategy either with the PSC 
or with member states.  Still, "it was clear from the 
beginning that there must be an exit", he said.  Djinnit 
noted that the AU does not have the capability or financial 
security to engage in a long-term mission and that the UN is 
the only logical successor for AMIS.  There is, though, no 
agreement on transition timing. 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000048  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶7. (C) Djinnit said that the AU's fundamental assumption was 
that transition should be linked to a political settlement. 
He conceded that, while securing a political agreement would 
make it easier for him to promote transition, a political 
settlement is not necessarily a precursor to UN takeover. 
 
¶8. (C) Djinnit thanked the USG for assurances that AMIS 
funding would continue during a transition period, but 
commented that the AU needs not only sustainment of current 
funding but also additional funding to meet cash shortfalls. 
The EU Peace Facility will only take AMIS to April 2006, he 
reminded partners. Djinnit noted that he had consistently 
told partners for many months that AMIS need more financial 
predictability.  Director of the Chairperson's Bureau Diallo 
also requested clarification on partner intent to fund AMIS 
through a transition period that may last nine months. 
 
¶9. (C) Djinnit stated that the issue of funding is still 
"very sensitive."  He commented that strategic partnerships 
between the AU and international community cannot be based on 
financial dependency.  He welcomed U.S. and other partner 
offers to enhance AMIS capacity and said the AU is open to 
external technical assistance provided the AU retains command 
and control. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
AU COMMISSION WANTS CLARITY ON AMIS FUTURE 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶10. (C) The AU Commission is not in a position to predict the 
PSC outcome, Djinnit noted.  He assured partners that the AU 
wants to go to the Khartoum Summit with a clear sense of 
AMIS' future.  Djinnit said that the Commission would do its 
"utmost" to seek either a concrete PSC decision on AMIS 
future or a mechanism for discussing the way forward for 
AMIS. 
 
------------------ 
PSC CHAIR THOUGHTS 
------------------ 
 
¶11. (C) In a separate meeting, Cameroon Ambassador Jean 
Hilaire Mbea Mbea (PSC Chair for January) told DCM, Dutch 
Ambassador and British Poloff that he is "relieved" to hear 
that the U.S. "has changed its position" on the issue of 
transition (Note:  DCM raised reftel points).  Cameroon was 
under the impression that the USG was reluctant to promote UN 
takeover of AMIS, he said.  Mbea said that the PSC may want a 
shorter transition period for UN takeover -- three months 
instead of nine.  He emphasized that a UN mission should not 
simply take over from AMIS, but instead should be more 
robust.  Mbea was not convinced that the UN is prepared to 
undertake a more robust mission.  Mbea noted that he cannot 
predict the PSC outcome, but stated his expectation that the 
January 12 PSC will provide more clarity on the issue of AMIS 
future.  He did indicate, though, that the PSC may simply 
extend AMIS for three months while the details of a 
transition are worked out with the UN.  DCM urged the 
Cameroon Ambassador to consider clear language on transition 
during the January 12 PSC meeting so the USG can use its 
February Security Council Presidency to pursue the issue of 
re-hatting AMIS.  British Poloff noted that handing AMIS 
responsibility to the UN will also free the AU to pursue 
efforts in other regions such as the Great Lakes. 
 
¶12. (C) Note:  Canadian Charge approached Lesotho and Kenya 
PSC Ambassadors January 5. According to Canadian Charge, 
Lesotho does not expect that the PSC will make a firm 
decision on AMIS future on January 12.  The Kenyan Ambassador 
expressed preference for continued AMIS presence in Darfur. 
End note. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶13. (C) Post does not believe AU member states have a clear 
understanding of timelines involved for transition, funding 
constraints and partner committment to continued support to 
improve African peacekeeping capabilities.  This is all the 
more true since the AU Commission has not actively engaged 
member states on the issue of exit strategy and realities on 
the ground.  Post will continue to approach local PSC 
Ambassadors, but high-level approaches to PSC and other key 
capitals are also vital. 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000048  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
HUDDLESTON